Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 They are showing enhanced snow potential focused right along the inverted troff axis.Yes, and sometimes the actual center of low pressure ends up right there instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 They are showing enhanced snow potential focused right along the inverted troff axis. Euro ensembles were south last night for next weeks low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Looks pretty darn close to a "Snow Bomb". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Euro ensembles were south last night for next weeks low That's encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Thanks guys. Does have potential This is a mesoscale situation so small changes of distance can result in several inches to no snow at all. Probably a nowcast radar special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 They are showing enhanced snow potential focused right along the inverted troff axis. We can also see decent ratios with the trough so close to the 510 arctic thickness contour. f72.gif Thanks for posting this. I have seen many times over the years in depictions just like this, that the center of low pressure ends up exactly where you see the kink in that inverted trough axis, off the Jersey shore and south of Long Island, where the precip max is as well. I would not be surprised if the low pressure center were actually to end up there. Not saying it will at all, but I definitely think it is a possibility. I have just seen it happen many times. Of course it happens the other way many times too. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I don't want this to be taken the wrong way at all, but in some respects, this somewhat reminds me of the Boxing Day situation, not the storm itself, but in the way the models wanted to produce the low WAY the heck out off shore in the Gulf Stream, but in actuality it ended it right off the coast. I think the models inherently want to go for the largest temperature contrast, and here you are pulling very cold arctic air toward the ocean, which is already like a massive temperature difference as it hits the shore, but it produces the low over the Gulf Stream because the model sees an even larger temperature gradient, which is true, but sometimes the difference in gradient is enough to produce the low closer to the coast as the temperature gradient is rather dramatic already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 This is a mesoscale situation so small changes of distance can result in several inches to no snow at all. Probably a nowcast radar special. Dam you ,,,,,, lol yes we need Mesoscale low to form over the top , was reading a Matt Noyes piece this am . You beat me to it ... good work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 NAM has a 1010mb low centered just SW of DC at 57 hrs with light precip over us. Takes the low to the DelMarva at 60 hrs with light snow continuing over us. It has much more energy in the base of the trough this time than the previous run. That is what is going on. At 63 hrs it has a dual barrel 1006mb low pressure with one low about 50 miles off the Delmarva and the other about 150 miles out with light snow continuing throughout the area. At 66hrs .10+ has fallen throughout much of the area and the low has consolidated to 1001 mb about 150 miles off the Jersey coast. At 69 hrs the low is down to 997mb about 100 miles southeast of Cape Cod. .25 line through eastern half of Long Island to coastal CT. At 72 hrs it has moved the low NE and all of CT, eastern Long Island, MA, RI are .25+ between 60 and 72 hrs with more still falling in eastern New England. Small changes here can make a big difference. Very nice trend if it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Hr 63 light snow for area continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 This is going to be a wet run for NYC. .10+ hr 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Nam close to .25 for NYC, more on Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 NAM .25 NYC , Long Island , SREF .25 - .50 , QPF over the area . on top of MINUS 10 air , not shabby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 .25 line is just NE of NYC with the eastern 2/3 of Long Island between .25-.50. .50 line touches extreme eastern Long Island and runs north through eastern CT, .75-1.00 for all of RI and SE MA, and a maximum of 1.16 over Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Total Precip from NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Cape Cod blizzard , wow that came out of thin air . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 This is very similar to 2/25/90 as I posted in the SNE thread last night, the setup at 500mb may not be as dynamic but its a similar idea. I'd think the best chances are still ERN LI and CT for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I don't want this to be taken the wrong way at all, but in some respects, this somewhat reminds me of the Boxing Day situation, not the storm itself, but in the way the models wanted to produce the low WAY the heck out off shore in the Gulf Stream, but in actuality it ended it right off the coast. I think the models inherently want to go for the largest temperature contrast, and here you are pulling very cold arctic air toward the ocean, which is already like a massive temperature difference as it hits the shore, but it produces the low over the Gulf Stream because the model sees an even larger temperature gradient, which is true, but sometimes the difference in gradient is enough to produce the low closer to the coast as the temperature gradient is rather dramatic already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Wow, SREF's are a rather significant hit, with .10-.25 for everyone! .25 line goes to the Jersey Shore, NYC, all of Long Island and coastal CT. The .50 line is just offshore of Long Island and you can clearly see it is from a coastal low as it is backing the precip into our area off the ocean, heading right toward the NY bight off the ocean. And keep in mind this is with very cold temperatures too, so there is the possibility of higher than 10:1 ratios also. They sent reconnaissance aircraft up yesterday. That data probably just got digested into the model. The following discussion is from Typhoon Tip in the New England forum yesterday. Folks, NCEP: "......THERE IS REASONABLE EVIDENCE OF A COASTAL WAVE DEVELOPING ATOP THIS SLOPED ARCTICFRONT...AND BENEATH A COMPLEX 250MB JET STRUCTURE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ENOUGH SUPPORT/EVIDENCE DURING THE LAST 48 HOURS TO REQUEST A SERIES OF NOAA G4 WINTER RECON FLIGHTS TO SAMPLE THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC BETWEEN HAWAII AND ALASKA..." Not sure when that sound data would make it into the grid, but clearly there are top minds onto this issue/volatility in the domain for the time frame in question, so it's definitely interesting. I tell you what, the Euro has zippo wiggle room - if that deep layer gets even a little bit more amped when that wavy turns the corner in the OV, that would be a NJ Model bomb *( and I mean actual deepening rates ). Very very close there. One can see why G4 flights are being requested... It has been a long long time since this type of thickness packing has been modeled, and situated so close to the Gulf Stream.. You can't fiddle around with that - that's a like a loaded gun. If run a 110kt 500mb wind stream over the top of that intense of a frontal slope than the models would quite likely be underdone with sfc result. Oh, certainly it's more likely a non-event, but the volatility and profile of potential is just off the charts. NCEP seems to concur enough to send up the G4's This is the plan of the day ... no idea for sure when it gets ingested into the model assimilation. I imagine by 12z tomorrow there's no doubt it's all in there. Definitely complex situation, so hopefully these drops are useful. Will be interesting to see any notable shifts/trends tomorrow! the trick there is to have the S/W be more intense to compensate - hence the G4 missions. Quote 000 NOUS42 KNHC 171731 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1230 PM EST THU 17 JANUARY 2013 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z JANUARY 2013 WSPOD NUMBER.....12-048 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE --NOAA 49-- . A. P56/ DROP 11(44.3N 151.0W)/ 19/0000Z B. NOAA9 02WSC TRACK56 C. 18/1930Z D. 16 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 19/0600Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. $ JWP The responsible vorts are way up there in AK and entering Northwest Territories right now...its possible that the recent model trends are a result of the RAOBS over AK starting to pick up on something...my concern is as the vorts drop into AB/SK the data may get lost once again and we may see more waffling before they get closer to the lower 48. I do not like these systems that involves upper disturbances coming out of NW Canada quickly because by the time they are into the US RAOBs area you're 48-60 hours out at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 The responsible vorts are way up there in AK and entering Northwest Territories right now...its possible that the recent model trends are a result of the RAOBS over AK starting to pick up on something...my concern is as the vorts drop into AB/SK the data may get lost once again and we may see more waffling before they get closer to the lower 48. I do not like these systems that involves upper disturbances coming out of NW Canada quickly because by the time they are into the US RAOBs area you're 48-60 hours out at best. The responsible vorts are way up there in AK and entering Northwest Territories right now...its possible that the recent model trends are a result of the RAOBS over AK starting to pick up on something...my concern is as the vorts drop into AB/SK the data may get lost once again and we may see more waffling before they get closer to the lower 48. I do not like these systems that involves upper disturbances coming out of NW Canada quickly because by the time they are into the US RAOBs area you're 48-60 hours out at best. Yes, this is a highly volatile and interesting situation. Who knows what the heck will happen, but this has truly massive potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I think a 1-2 inch snowfall is a safe bet for the area right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I think a 1-2 inch snowfall is a safe bet for the area right nowYes, especially with the high ratio potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I think a 1-2 inch snowfall is a safe bet for the area right now Is this for Tuesday or Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Is this for Tuesday or Friday? Mon night into tue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Going to make a clipper thread guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 As far as next weekend's potential goes. The GFS is actually performing better right now than the ECMWF at both 6 and 8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisjmcjr Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 is there a thread for the friday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 is there a thread for the friday storm? No I will make one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Here is the MJO from the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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