sussexcountyobs Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 they seem to be following the 15z sref ensembles to a tThanks. Thats what Ive been wondering, what models are they going with? In your opinion,, smart move on their part? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Thanks. Thats what Ive been wondering, what models are they going with? In your opinion,, smart move on their part? not really since the last time we had an event like this type the srefs did horrible. had me as 0 snow and i had over 3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 659 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013 .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MASS MODEL FORECAST FIELDS FOR THE NEXT STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION. AS THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE OK/TX BORDER MOVES NE...A SECONDARY LOW IS FCST TO DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND INTENSIFY AS IT MVS NE TOWARD THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND ACROSS THE REGION WED. SNOW/ICE FCST...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW/SLEET ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AFT SUNSET TUE. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH COLD AIR DAMMING WILL OCCUR TUE NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MVS OFF THE COAST AND INCREASING E-NE WINDS WARM BOUNDARY LAYERS. COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AFT MIDNIGHT. STAY TUNED. WIND FCST...ALTHOUGH A STRONG LOW LVL JET OF 50-60 KT DEVELOPS AROUND 925 MB AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW TUE NIGHT UNDER THE TIGHTEST PRES GRADIENT...LOW LVL INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND PREVENT SOME MIXING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED NYC EAST. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE... LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FROM ORANGE COUNTY NY EAST ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT DURING TUE NIGHT. STAY TUNE FOR A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. STRONG EAST WINDS FROM NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA EAST ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED THAT COULD MEET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 31-39 MPH OR GUSTS 46-57 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 not really since the last time we had an event like this type the srefs did horrible. had me as 0 snow and i had over 3 inchesWithoout knowing nothing, my gut tells me when I wake up tommorow morn, myforecast will be very different. Prob WWA or WSWatch. Just from experience livinv around here so long.Hoefulllly we dont get an ice storm, cause they just suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Sref's in general are horrible imo lol. It will be interesting to see what short range does over night into am though, continue trending cooler with the cad signal or what. Btw folks, current slp position is well s.e of where the gfs had it at this time, just thought I'd throw that out there. Gfs is truly on it's own vs all guidance. These events typically run warmer vs colder though, but the main focus should be how far n.e that primary gets before it occludes. Then focus shifts to when, where and how far s.e that secondary is. This is a fine line were walking for the interior, waa is a scary thing when trying to figure out how far north and fast it surges before the secondary tries to hold or crash the mid levels and 850's. Any slight changes can alter the outcome for borderline areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 ...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTPENNSYLVANIA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW YORK LATE TUESDAY INTOWEDNESDAY....A MIX OF SNOW... SLEET... FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREADTHE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. UP TOSEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OFICE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOWSHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.NYZ044>046-057-062-270330-/O.NEW.KBGM.WW.Y.0006.130227T0000Z-130227T1700Z/CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CORTLAND...NORWICH...ONEONTA...COOPERSTOWN...WALTON...DELHI...MONTICELLO1028 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO NOONEST WEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PMTUESDAY TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY.* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.* HAZARDS...SNOW AND ICE.* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH... MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.* TIMING...MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL START TUESDAY EVENING. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OVERNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING.* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.* WINDS...EASTERLY AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 wwa just hoisted for sussex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Every 0z run was went Warner . Lets hope the 12z runs go a little colder and bring more front end precip back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Every 0z run was went Warner . Lets hope the 12z runs go a little colder and bring more front end precip back. The 6z NAM was still a pretty good front end dump north of High Point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 12z NAM was a good front end thump for Orange County.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 RGEM seems to be a little colder as well.. Nice front end thump for the far interior.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Nice images ..keep them coming ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 RGEM seems to be a little colder as well.. Nice front end thump for the far interior.. That would be very nice to see around here. I wouldn't call that the far interior. Anyone north of I-80 gets into it. Oh I almost forgot, anyone that lives outside of "The 20 miles that surround Central Park are not an accurate representation of what this sub-forum sees for snow." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 heres the rgem total snow, its in millimeter liquid equivalent that falls as snow. snow 10mm would equal about .40 of precip that falls as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 nam water equivalent snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 That would be very nice to see around here. I wouldn't call that the far interior. Anyone north of I-80 gets into it. Oh I almost forgot, anyone that lives outside of "The 20 miles that surround Central Park are not an accurate representation of what this sub-forum sees for snow." lol.. Dont stress it. That whole "Metro Area" thing has been an argument for some time now. Everyone has their opinion when it comes to it. Coming from someone who has lived in NYC for 25 yrs and now lives in the burbs can honestly say there is wayy more to the area than Manhattan. Thats for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 nam water equivalent snowfall Wow thats a sharp cutoff.. Literally just south of me gets nothing while MBY has 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Nice hit here in the Poconos with that rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 gfs snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 gfs snow map That looks very weird based off the GFS I saw. NAM looks colder than GFS yet these snow maps show basically 0 snow for me on NAM and 10-15MM on GFS. GFS has 850 line intersecting eastern NY basically where NY, Mass, and CT meet by the time only .01 in of precip has fallen. I don't see how this translates to that map...weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 That's because it goes out to 240 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 That looks very weird based off the GFS I saw. NAM looks colder than GFS yet these snow maps show basically 0 snow for me on NAM and 10-15MM on GFS. GFS has 850 line intersecting eastern NY basically where NY, Mass, and CT meet by the time only .01 in of precip has fallen. I don't see how this translates to that map...weird. just noticed thats through 240 hrs lol, let me change it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 corrected gfs map to 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Ouch Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ315 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2013PAZ054-055-271000-/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0003.130226T2100Z-130227T1400Z/CARBON-MONROE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG315 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2013...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM ESTWEDNESDAY...* LOCATIONS...THE POCONOS IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...ONE TENTH TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES BUT UP TO AROUND 4 INCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.* TIMING...PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN OR SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN...SNOW...AND SLEET OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW... SLEET... AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND WALKWAYS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE IF ICING OCCURS ON TREES AND POWER LINES.* WINDS...EAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOW 30S.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVELVERY HAZARDOUS.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 High res 18z NAM is coming in very wet. 2-4" of mostly rain for everyone. Gives around a coating for far NW areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenrad Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Where do these neat maps come from on meteocentre.com? I've tried looking but only found maps that have total accum. precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 The 18z NAM bufkit shows almost 0.25" of ZR at KSWF 130227/0300Z 9 09012KT 32.3F SNOW 11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0130227/0400Z 10 08014KT 31.0F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.038 11:1| 0.1|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.04 11| 89| 0130227/0500Z 11 07013KT 31.4F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.12|| 0.112 11:1| 0.1|| 0.08|| 0.12|| 0.16 0| 0|100130227/0600Z 12 07014KT 31.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.10|| 0.092 11:1| 0.1|| 0.08|| 0.21|| 0.25 0| 0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130227/0700Z 13 06017KT 33.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063 11:1| 0.1|| 0.08|| 0.21|| 0.31 0| 0|100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Dumb question here. Where is KSWF, and where can you find out what all these abbreviations stand for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Dumb question here. Where is KSWF, and where can you find out what all these abbreviations stand for? Stewart Airport in Newburgh. I never knew what they meant either...If I don't know one I just put it in google and it usually tells you right there what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Stewart Airport in Newburgh. I never knew what they meant either...If I don't know one I just put it in google and it usually tells you right there what it is. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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