snowgeek Posted December 15, 2012 Author Share Posted December 15, 2012 Unfortunately for those of us in ENY who rely on synoptic snow, the trends the last few days have been quite depressing. Sunday's front end thump now looks like a front end meh with a little snow, and a little ice. Mon night and Tuesday look rainy. End of week storm looks like a rainy front. After that it looks dry and cold. Maybe I'll be able to take the kids on a LES chase during break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Perfect low location at 216 hours Cold 850s Then it gets really cold by hours 240. FRIGID. Still looking good! Let's hope the trend continues. Lake Erie currently 43 degrees, 4 degrees above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Euro give's cny a nice snowfall on the 21st, where have i seen this before Euro text for kuca FRI 06Z 21-DEC 1.8 -0.5 1001 96 100 0.19 546 545 FRI 12Z 21-DEC 1.0 -2.1 993 97 99 0.22 535 541 FRI 18Z 21-DEC 0.7 -3.4 987 98 99 0.40 524 535 SAT 00Z 22-DEC -0.8 -5.3 988 90 99 0.21 519 529 SAT 06Z 22-DEC -0.6 -5.5 987 96 95 0.09 518 529 SAT 12Z 22-DEC -0.7 -5.6 990 96 98 0.08 519 527 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard1024 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Euro give's cny a nice snowfall on the 21st, where have i seen this before Euro text for kuca FRI 06Z 21-DEC 1.8 -0.5 1001 96 100 0.19 546 545 FRI 12Z 21-DEC 1.0 -2.1 993 97 99 0.22 535 541 FRI 18Z 21-DEC 0.7 -3.4 987 98 99 0.40 524 535 SAT 00Z 22-DEC -0.8 -5.3 988 90 99 0.21 519 529 SAT 06Z 22-DEC -0.6 -5.5 987 96 95 0.09 518 529 SAT 12Z 22-DEC -0.7 -5.6 990 96 98 0.08 519 527 Well the 00z/12-16 run of the Euro is going for a torch on Christmas now in the east.... and the overall 8-10 mean still shows that wicked trough on the west coast. Does not look like a pattern change...yet. The euro ensembles also support the operational. The GFS runs and ensembles are a little more favorable but it was supposed to be cold and snowy by now back from the runs around the 1st of December. I am hanging my hat on the euro...persistence. This could become one of the warmest and least snowiest Decembers on record in Binghamton. An what sucks is look at all the blue on the map below. There is a lot of cold air in the NH...just not here, like last winter! bah humbagh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Well the 00z/12-16 run of the Euro is going for a torch on Christmas now in the east.... and the overall 8-10 mean still shows that wicked trough on the west coast. Does not look like a pattern change...yet. The euro ensembles also support the operational. The GFS runs and ensembles are a little more favorable but it was supposed to be cold and snowy by now back from the runs around the 1st of December. I am hanging my hat on the euro...persistence. This could become one of the warmest and least snowiest Decembers on record in Binghamton. An what sucks is look at all the blue on the map below. There is a lot of cold air in the NH...just not here, like last winter! bah humbagh! 6z GFS still looked good for Toronto/Buffalo/Ottawa overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 12z gfs is setting the Ull up over the eastern GL where it occluded, moves east over the top of the st Lawrence valley, and sets up a decent period of les from several vectors through the period. around hr. 108 and continues through 132 at least. Then the north east is cold. Generally a favorable set up for les. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The 15z RAP sounding for ALB shows the warm layer between 800 and 850 mb staying at or below freezing until around 3 pm this afternoon. Maybe we will at least see a few snow showers or IP before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 Given the kids and I have next week off I'm hoping to at least be able to drive to snow. I'll go anywhere between Oswego and Vermont......ADK's to Catskills. Fingers crossed. Boy, the Pacific really messed things up for us. The pattern seems to find multiple ways to screw us. My fear is when then the cutters stop we'll be stuck in dry in cold. Hopefully we can at least get some LES. If the 20/21 storm can just dig a little further south.....dreaming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Given the kids and I have next week off I'm hoping to at least be able to drive to snow. I'll go anywhere between Oswego and Vermont......ADK's to Catskills. Fingers crossed. Boy, the Pacific really messed things up for us. The pattern seems to find multiple ways to screw us. My fear is when then the cutters stop we'll be stuck in dry in cold. Hopefully we can at least get some LES. If the 20/21 storm can just dig a little further south.....dreaming. The euro is further south than the GFS, so maybe n the right direction. Got to get the first system out of the way to know what's what for endof the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 12z euro kuca FRI 06Z 21-DEC 1.7 -1.0 1003 96 99 0.42 549 546 FRI 12Z 21-DEC 2.8 -0.3 994 96 100 0.25 538 543 FRI 18Z 21-DEC 0.6 -2.8 987 97 98 0.60 527 538 SAT 00Z 22-DEC 0.1 -4.3 984 96 94 0.21 519 532 SAT 06Z 22-DEC 0.0 -4.8 983 97 92 0.28 517 531 SAT 12Z 22-DEC -1.7 -7.2 990 93 97 0.40 519 527 SAT 18Z 22-DEC -3.9 -10.9 996 82 97 0.18 520 523 SUN 00Z 23-DEC -5.6 -12.6 1000 86 90 0.09 520 520 SUN 06Z 23-DEC -7.1 -13.6 1001 87 95 0.06 519 518 SUN 12Z 23-DEC -8.5 -13.8 1003 87 88 0.03 521 518 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard1024 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Well the 00z/12-16 run of the Euro is going for a torch on Christmas now in the east.... and the overall 8-10 mean still shows that wicked trough on the west coast. Does not look like a pattern change...yet. The euro ensembles also support the operational. The GFS runs and ensembles are a little more favorable but it was supposed to be cold and snowy by now back from the runs around the 1st of December. I am hanging my hat on the euro...persistence. This could become one of the warmest and least snowiest Decembers on record in Binghamton. An what sucks is look at all the blue on the map below. There is a lot of cold air in the NH...just not here, like last winter! bah humbagh! Well the new 12z runs looks better...the Euro seems to be vasalating back and forth on how deep the western trough will be and how deep the upper low wll be off the east coast. Let's hope....my new skis need to be broken in!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Made it up to 55 today. 52 now. Beautiful day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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