Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 The GFS ens have the same pattern at 10 days and generally improve it going forward, but a -PNA/+EPO look persists...I am not jazzed down here until that block moves west....you can probably do better with that pattern...we haven't typically produced in that pattern, esp in Dec...you get a very weak trough or zonal in the east and everything cuts to the west or become weak post frontal waves that get washed out..then we get cold for 2 days....warm up and repeat... The 12z gfs op showed the pv pushing into gl and against the ridging near iceland. I would think that we are more at risk for the east based nao to get pushed out of the way than vice versa at this point. Just my opinion and a heck of a lot can change. Things are fluid enough I suppose. With some buckles and seasonal cold coming out of canada but no real signs of an arctic intrusion yet. You would have to think it's coming at some point this month (obviously n plains first) with the ao tending negative. The real kick in the teeth would be to finally get the pac to start to cooperate and have the ao go positive. Then we still battle temps and track even with a +pna. I'm not pessimistic for the most part but a truly productive pattern irt snow is still elusive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 The latest AO and NAO progs look better. Wasn't it just a couple days ago that these were showing positive? Especially the AO? Now there seems to be some pretty good agreement that AO doesn't make it into pos territory. These are from the NCEP site. Of course, they aren't any more likely to be right when they show what we want, and the models keep jumping around in the long term, but I know Wes and Bob are really big on the AO, so, maybe some good signs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 The latest AO and NAO progs look better. Wasn't it just a couple days ago that these were showing positive? Especially the AO? Now there seems to be some pretty good agreement that AO doesn't make it into pos territory. These are from the NCEP site. Of course, they aren't any more likely to be right when they show what we want, and the models keep jumping around in the long term, but I know Wes and Bob are really big on the AO, so, maybe some good signs? It's a good sign but we need the AO to be effective as well. It can be trumped by other factors like a craptastic pac. Looking at the nao/ao progs over the short term would imply a good pattern from the numerical values but when it comes to the placement of the features in the atmosphere they are less than ideal. Keep an eye on the PNA. It's had a heck of a - run. Basically 2 months straight and 7 consecutive monthlies w/ a minus reading. There are signs that it will grind its way positive again. This would be a huge step. It would allow for the other teleconnections like the ao to deliver the cold air into eastern half of the country. And dare I say there is a chance for the stj to become active too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 DT is all giddy over this....I'm not sure I see what is so great, but what do I know...any thoughts?...looks like the ridge is too far west...the EPO region sucks....there is a PV up over NW canada....the block is over Iceland....it looks like an equal chances pattern Their are 3things that stick out to me in the pic that looked decent. 1. -ao in the arctic region, so that increases the chances of the cold spilling down into canada or the other side of the globe. 2nd the GOA low isnt there. Thats a big thing. With a goa and no blocking we are pretty much doomed. So with that missing it allows the ridge to pump somewhat just of the west coast. 3rd east based -nao, granted not ideal for us, but its better than a positive nao and gives some glimmer of hope. A good thing in that pic to, which is needed is its showing some sort of cold air spilling south. You need the cold air to come down first for anything to happen. Those sneaky events always occur when the cold air is nearby and we get a cad situation timed well with a low coming up. Granted it may not be a snowstorm, but a front end thump of 1-3 would get places to normal snowfall wise for december or atleast close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 The GFS ens have the same pattern at 10 days and generally improve it going forward, but a -PNA/+EPO look persists...I am not jazzed down here until that block moves west....you can probably do better with that pattern...we haven't typically produced in that pattern, esp in Dec...you get a very weak trough or zonal in the east and everything cuts to the west or become weak post frontal waves that get washed out..then we get cold for 2 days....warm up and repeat... that huge vortex over Canada and the low heights there are a problem as it usualy keeps lows going to our north unless we get some kind of weak wave that develops along a cold front that has swept though. I guess I'm saying, I agree with what you were saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 CFS2 has an idea where all the cold will be in DEC.....Europe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Was Europe cold in 10-11? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Was Europe cold in 10-11? I can't recall....it was either that year or last year and the continental US get screwgied while they froze on a positive note, the CFS2 is torching them for JAN-FEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Was Europe cold in 10-11? December 2010 IIRC was like the coldest December in Britain since the 1800s. I think the rest of the winter there was fairly tranquil, but December was epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Was Europe cold in 10-11? Heh, about as abnormally cold as we were warm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 IIRC Italy got buried too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Heh, about as abnormally cold as we were warm.... You werent very warm in 2010-2011...it was cold all over the east that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 I thought last year was when the cold got them while we got the warmth? Either way, in 52 minutes we need a new thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 I thought last year was when the cold got them while we got the warmth? Either way, in 52 minutes we need a new thread. December 2010 was epically cold over there. Last winter, they did get cold in Europe in January and February, but it was fairly mild in December. Prettty much everyone in the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes got freezing last January/February while we torched in North America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Here is the release about December 2010 in the UK http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2011/cold-dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 You werent very warm in 2010-2011...it was cold all over the east that year. Got my years mixed up. Was thinking 11-12. We haven't had much fun since 09-10. It's easy to get the last 2 mixed up in the ma. One was cool, one was warm, and neither were snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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