AppsRunner Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 12z ECMWF:.4" for KTOL .62" @ ORD .43" @ DTW .35" @ LAF And 1.87" @ NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 probably too far south.....today was a perfect example of what that southeast canadian vortex can do.....we were wiffed to the south today. An eastcoast low that bombs and retrogrades will only serve to jack that vortex even more. I'd rather see that sw dig and have room to pop some semblance of a ridge ahead of it, which will be much more likely if the eastcoast low heads out quickly. You guys are worrying too much about the east coast storm. Even a bomb looks to move out fast enough as it will be very compact with most CAA heading OTS. The block breaks down as CS said and all models that bomb the low off SNE really does not have a nagative influence on the eventual wave and storm potential that this thread is discussing. The strength of the eventual baroclinic wave ejecting into the plains and how well it it makes it passage through the mountains is more important. The low level baroclinic zone is ridiculous and the ECM/GFS/UK models all have a good south feed into the system. Potential energy in the low levels will be there. The Canadian retrograding low will not be an issue and should not suppress the height field aloft...although it doesn't look like there will be a phase either. From a pure standpoint of baroclinic wave generation and growth of a disturbance, the potential is very high as long as a sufficiently strong upper level front/shortwave can eject into the plains. The favorable jet stream pattern is already there...we just need something to amplify. Given the latest ECM trend and the look of the GFS, there is an increasing probability a sufficiently strong shortwave ejects to initiate relative deep (vertically) cyclogenesis with a potential spread the wealth storm and some potential big hits. That is best case. Worst case would still be an active frontal wave with a much smaller regional potential but still decent snowfall potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 You guys are worrying too much about the east coast storm. Even a bomb looks to move out fast enough as it will be very compact with most CAA heading OTS. The block breaks down as CS said and all models that bomb the low off SNE really does not have a nagative influence on the eventual wave and storm potential that this thread is discussing. The strength of the eventual baroclinic wave ejecting into the plains and how well it it makes it passage through the mountains is more important. The low level baroclinic zone is ridiculous and the ECM/GFS/UK models all have a good south feed into the system. Potential energy in the low levels will be there. The Canadian retrograding low will not be an issue and should not suppress the height field aloft...although it doesn't look like there will be a phase either. From a pure standpoint of baroclinic wave generation and growth of a disturbance, the potential is very high as long as a sufficiently strong upper level front/shortwave can eject into the plains. The favorable jet stream pattern is already there...we just need something to amplify. Given the latest ECM trend and the look of the GFS, there is an increasing probability a sufficiently strong shortwave ejects to initiate relative deep (vertically) cyclogenesis with a potential spread the wealth storm and some potential big hits. That is best case. Worst case would still be an active frontal wave with a much smaller regional potential but still decent snowfall potential. The problem many have is the history with these kinds of set ups. Basically to short of wavelengths for our system to amplify and getting ripped to shreds via the confluence with the east coast potential hanging near the coast vs heading out to sea to allow ours to amplify more via longer wavelengths. Now if the east coast storm is MOVING along on out and not hanging out near Cape Cod/off New England coast then that IS different. Guessing you think it moves on out of the way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 The problem many have is the history with these kinds of set ups. Basically to short of wavelengths for our system to amplify and getting ripped to shreds via the confluence with the east coast potential hanging near the coast vs heading out to sea to allow ours to amplify more via longer wavelengths. Now if the east coast storm is MOVING along on out and not hanging out near Cape Cod/off New England coast then that IS different. Guessing you think it moves on out of the way? It does look like an increasing chance (for potential cyclogenesis...maybe up to 30% or so). Yesterdays 0Z GFS was an idealistic look at that and shows a sufficiently strong disturbance can unstably grow over that amped baro zone over the plains. ECM gets even more amped with development and depth of the cyclogenesis. I see the potential here. Not trying to get too excited yet but I see some positive trends. From a forecasting standpoint...it is almost impossible to tell how strong the eventual disturbance will be as the Pacific cyclone breaks down over the mountainous west. Only bias I know of is the CMC bias I mentioned earlier that is of possible use in this forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The concern I have is if there is a big storm along the East Coast that it will leave confluence in its wake, and in turn this wave would tend to weaken as it gets further east, this potential is there. However if it moves east away from the coast the confluence would tend to setup further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 The concern I have is if there is a big storm along the East Coast that it will leave confluence in its wake, and in turn this wave would tend to weaken as it gets further east, this potential is there. However if it moves east away from the coast the confluence would tend to setup further east. Yeah we have been discussing this a lot. Look through the recent threads. Not terribly worried about the east coast low right now. NAM being slow here is actual prolly right and trends towards 12Z ECM which was much slower sending the baroclinic wave across the intermountain west. Trends are generally remaining positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The concern I have is if there is a big storm along the East Coast that it will leave confluence in its wake, and in turn this wave would tend to weaken as it gets further east, this potential is there. However if it moves east away from the coast the confluence would tend to setup further east. Seems Wes & Will think the storm will be a minor storm so that seems this won't be a player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yeah we have been discussing this a lot. Look through the recent threads. Not terribly worried about the east coast low right now. NAM being slow here is actual prolly right and trends towards 12Z ECM which was much slower sending the baroclinic wave across the intermountain west. Trends are generally remaining positive. No I do agree the trends are positive but its a very fluid situation especially the further East you go, if things stall along the coast, those east of the Mississippi will end up with a quickly weakening system as it gets sheared apart due to the confluent flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Seems Wes & Will think the storm will be a minor storm so that seems this won't be a player. Wes and Will trending off already? Interesting. NAM had a positive trend W, the king still crushing them. 0Z should tell a lot. Surprised they are giving up already without anything but the NAM in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Seems Wes & Will think the storm will be a minor storm so that seems this won't be a player. Yeah I was listening for a bit earlier, If what they are thinking ends up being true then we are sitting in the catbird seat on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yeah I was listening for a bit earlier, If what they are thinking ends up being true then we are sitting in the catbird seat on this one. Catbird seat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Our old friend the DGEX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Our old friend the DGEX... Looks like we all need to move to the Sierras. NIce 80+" hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Catbird seat? A good spot get with the lingo j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 A good spot get with the lingo j/k Figured that just never heard that expression before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Our old friend the DGEX... pretty large area of 5"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 pretty large area of 5"+ Sharp southern gradient in IA and IL, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Still like my 5% call here for anything over an inch or 2.. This has southwest written all over it.. pretty much the theme this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Still like my 5% call here for anything over an inch or 2.. This has southwest written all over it.. pretty much the theme this winter. I am often pessimistic too when it comes to non-operational weather forecasting since it can only equate to a neutral or positive result in the end, but I don't think this has SW written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 gotta love the tight baroclinic zone on the 0z GFS, go from 15 degrees in southern KS to 0 degrees at 850mb along the KS/NE border at 90 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I am often pessimistic too when it comes to non-operational weather forecasting since it can only equate to a neutral or positive result in the end, but I don't think this has SW written all over it. I've been dead on my calls for here every event this winter so far.. Doubt I'll be wrong this time. Jackpot areas will be south and west of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 0Z GFS op run garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Why is the NE storm hanging around so long? Is that causing this storm to weaken on the gfs? I know we are looking at the ec storm too much but as long as its there, the models are shearing the storm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I've been dead on my calls for here every event this winter so far.. Doubt I'll be wrong this time. Jackpot areas will be south and west of me. GFS splits the uprights between us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 GFS splits the uprights between us. Fits the mold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 0Z GFS op run garbage. Well it does what I worry about, but yes I would toss it out, some funny things going on with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Why is the NE storm hanging around so long? Is that causing this storm to weaken on the gfs? I know we are looking at the ec storm too much but as long as its there, the models are shearing the storm out. The latest 0Z GFS has that retrograding Canadian low killing the height field in the mid levels. By the time it heads east it is all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The latest 0Z GFS has that retrograding Canadian low killing the height field in the mid levels. By the time it heads east it is all over. I have seen a lot of retrograding lows. Is that because of the location of the block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well it does what I worry about, but yes I would toss it out, some funny things going on with it. Interested to see the ensembles. This was a new solution. Has a mess in the upper height field across Canada and keeps lingering low heights with that retrograder. Nasty run, I wouldn't be surprised if that is the most pessimistic of the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 why were Heights at all levels way higher then the 12z gfs? accross the conus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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