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iCyclone Chase: ISAAC


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Triple-bravo, Josh, and thanks as always for allowing us to ride along vicariously!

You asked if Port Sulphur had ever been in the eye. Not really, unless it happened while you were in the hospital (that doesn't sound good if taken out of context, hahahaha!) and I went to sleep. I went back and examined every radar image, and found this particular one from 828Z:

post-6546-0-92395600-1346513836_thumb.pn

Port Sulphur is sort of on the fringe of the eye there, but less so in even the previous scan or next one. I denoted Port Sulphur's location with a little red square. (The one up north is the radar site.)

They got every bit as much eyewall action as Galliano, though.

OT: I am once again taking an Ireland trip this year. Don't chase any more 'canes before the 20th!

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Triple-bravo, Josh, and thanks as always for allowing us to ride along vicariously!

You asked if Port Sulphur had ever been in the eye. Not really, unless it happened while you were in the hospital (that doesn't sound good if taken out of context, hahahaha!) and I went to sleep. I went back and examined every radar image, and found this particular one from 828Z:

Port Sulphur is sort of on the fringe of the eye there, but less so in even the previous scan or next one. I denoted Port Sulphur's location with a little red square. (The one up north is the radar site.)

They got every bit as much eyewall action as Galliano, though.

Wow-- look at that. I'm surprised they weren't ever really in the eye. I guess they were a tad too far N. But like you said, they got raked good-- and, in fact, I'm sure winds there were a little higher than what I saw.

Thanks for all the nice radar work, Bobby. :)

OT: I am once again taking an Ireland trip this year. Don't chase any more 'canes before the 20th!

Grrrrrr. Trips during the peak of 'cane season should be a illegal. :P

Would you still call isaac a red meat TC even though it didn't live up to the intensity expectations?

You know... I kind of would. It was a solid cyclone, with a thick, mean eyewall and a distinct, eye. The only minus was the backside-- after the eye passed, the storm was kind of blah-- I don't remember any really strong winds. But that could be because the center was over land for so long before the backside got to us.

But, seriously, for a Cat 1 it was really something else. I was impressed.

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How bad was the wind damage? This struck me as a very bad wind event, which can really mess up a town even if they're spared from the surge. Also how was the flooding within the levee walls? I imagine any rainwater that falls in must be pumped out.

Wind damage was moderate: fallen trees/power poles, bent/fallen signs, damaged roofs, etc. I saw a garage door blown in... that kind of stuff. The flooding was not too bad. The levees held-- the town was OK. I think in a major it would be a different story.

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Wind damage was moderate: fallen trees/power poles, bent/fallen signs, damaged roofs, etc. I saw a garage door blown in... that kind of stuff. The flooding was not too bad. The levees held-- the town was OK. I think in a major it would be a different story.

Sounds similar to the wind damage in Wilma, winds were sustained cat 1 and gusting to cat 2, aside from sustained cat 2 winds with gusts to cat 3 in small regions (so Wilma was prob a little stronger).

Probably the strongest hurricane as far as wind goes for southeast Louisiana in recent memory, stronger than Katrina. Here are the max wind obs from Galliano in Katrina in knots.

67 (sustained) 83 (gust)

And gustav: 43 (sustained) 49 (gust)

Kinda ironic since Isaac was a tropical storm until the day before landfall, while Katrina was a cat 5 before landfall.

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Sounds similar to the wind damage in Wilma, winds were sustained cat 1 and gusting to cat 2, aside from sustained cat 2 winds with gusts to cat 3 in small regions (so Wilma was prob a little stronger).

Probably the strongest hurricane as far as wind goes for southeast Louisiana in recent memory, stronger than Katrina. Here are the max wind obs from Galliano in Katrina in knots.

67 (sustained) 83 (gust)

And gustav: 43 (sustained) 49 (gust)

Kinda ironic since Isaac was a tropical storm until the day before landfall, while Katrina was a cat 5 before landfall.

Omg, thank you for rounding up these data! I was actually wondering exactly that-- what the winds were in Galliano in these other recent events. I assume these data are from KGAO?

KGAO recorded 50 kt gusting to 67 in Isaac-- so that would make the impact greater than Gustav but less than Katrina for that town. Since the station only samples once every 20 mins, you have to assume the peak winds weren't sampled, and the highest winds were probably higher.

I have to say, I'm surprised at how low the Gustav peak wind is. Are you sure that's right? Gustav was kind of a disappointment, but 1) Galliano was at Ground Zero for Gustav and 2) the townspeople I chatted with (we had a lot of time to kill in that eye!) said Gustav was scary and intense. A security-guard dude talked about how his whole house was shaking from the force of the wind, etc.

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Omg, thank you for rounding up these data! I was actually wondering exactly that-- what the winds were in Galliano in these other recent events. I assume these data are from KGAO?

KGAO recorded 50 kt gusting to 67 in Isaac-- so that would make the impact greater than Gustav but less than Katrina for that town. Since the station only samples once every 20 mins, you have to assume the peak winds weren't sampled, and the highest winds were probably higher.

I have to say, I'm surprised at how low the Gustav peak wind is. Are you sure that's right? Gustav was kind of a disappointment, but 1) Galliano was at Ground Zero for Gustav and 2) the townspeople I chatted with (we had a lot of time to kill in that eye!) said Gustav was scary and intense. A security-guard dude talked about how his whole house was shaking from the force of the wind, etc.

Lowest pressure observed in Galliano was 988 mb, so looks like the instrument cut off before the worst of the storm afterall. http://www.nhc.noaa....2008_Gustav.pdf

Bent power poles and torn roofs in a hurricane area strikes me as higher winds than 50/67, perhaps the duration is to blame.

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Omg, thank you for rounding up these data! I was actually wondering exactly that-- what the winds were in Galliano in these other recent events. I assume these data are from KGAO?

KGAO recorded 50 kt gusting to 67 in Isaac-- so that would make the impact greater than Gustav but less than Katrina for that town. Since the station only samples once every 20 mins, you have to assume the peak winds weren't sampled, and the highest winds were probably higher.

I have to say, I'm surprised at how low the Gustav peak wind is. Are you sure that's right? Gustav was kind of a disappointment, but 1) Galliano was at Ground Zero for Gustav and 2) the townspeople I chatted with (we had a lot of time to kill in that eye!) said Gustav was scary and intense. A security-guard dude talked about how his whole house was shaking from the force of the wind, etc.

Wind speeds in these maps and the reports i have seen do not add up, Gustav versus Isaac

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Regarding Gustav:

KGAO stopped reporting at 10Z on Sep 1, 2008, when Gustav was still around 40 miles south of Galliano in the Gulf:

At the time, sustained winds at Galliano were at 43 kt and increasing (2 hours before, they were only 29 kt).

http://www.wundergro...ilyHistory.html

Peak gusts in the New Orleans area occurred around 14Z.

NHC post-storm report: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL072008_Gustav.pdf

Omg, thank you for rounding up these data! I was actually wondering exactly that-- what the winds were in Galliano in these other recent events. I assume these data are from KGAO?

KGAO recorded 50 kt gusting to 67 in Isaac-- so that would make the impact greater than Gustav but less than Katrina for that town. Since the station only samples once every 20 mins, you have to assume the peak winds weren't sampled, and the highest winds were probably higher.

I have to say, I'm surprised at how low the Gustav peak wind is. Are you sure that's right? Gustav was kind of a disappointment, but 1) Galliano was at Ground Zero for Gustav and 2) the townspeople I chatted with (we had a lot of time to kill in that eye!) said Gustav was scary and intense. A security-guard dude talked about how his whole house was shaking from the force of the wind, etc.

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Lowest pressure observed in Galliano was 988 mb, so looks like the instrument cut off before the worst of the storm afterall. http://www.nhc.noaa....2008_Gustav.pdf

Bent power poles and torn roofs in a hurricane area strikes me as higher winds than 50/67, perhaps the duration is to blame.

To be clear, I didn't see any roofs removed, but ones with damage-- pieces or surface removed. It seemed like Cat 1 damage. Like I said, KGAO site apparently doesn't sample continuously, so peak winds very well could have been missed.

By the way, is the 50 kt a 1-min wind? I assume so, but let me know.

P.S. Mystery solved Re: Gustav: the data record is incomplete-- it ends at 1020Z, whereas landfall very close to that area was at 1500Z-- so they probably had some kind of equipment or power failure before the highest winds arrived.

Wind speeds in these maps and the reports i have seen do not add up, Gustav versus Isaac

That view is from when Galliano was in the eye, so it wouldn't have strong winds then. that having been said, I looked at the H*WIND analyses and they seem low given the readings at official reporting stations like KGAO and KHUM. They don't totally match up.

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Ryan, great piece! I love how you put it together and I think you picked some good clips from my portfolio! Thanks very much for this exposure—it’s great to be able to share some of my experience with a wider audience.

P.S. You have a great broadcast voice. When the piece started, I was like, “Wow—is that Ryan??” Of course, we’ve met before (at one of the conferences), but since we were just chatting you didn’t sound all “newsman”. :D

lol... yeah... I do develop this weird deep manly anchor voice when I do stories haha.

Thanks again for helping out!

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To be clear, I didn't see any roofs removed, but ones with damage-- pieces or surface removed. It seemed like Cat 1 damage. Like I said, KGAO site apparently doesn't sample continuously, so peak winds very well could have been missed.

By the way, is the 50 kt a 1-min wind? I assume so, but let me know.

P.S. Mystery solved Re: Gustav: the data record is incomplete-- it ends at 1020Z, whereas landfall very close to that area was at 1500Z-- so they probably had some kind of equipment or power failure before the highest winds arrived.

That view is from when Galliano was in the eye, so it wouldn't have strong winds then. that having been said, I looked at the H*WIND analyses and they seem low given the readings at official reporting stations like KGAO and KHUM. They don't totally match up.

which storm Isaac?My bad posted wrong one,I believe at this time you were reporting getting smoked?

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To be clear, I didn't see any roofs removed, but ones with damage-- pieces or surface removed. It seemed like Cat 1 damage. Like I said, KGAO site apparently doesn't sample continuously, so peak winds very well could have been missed.

By the way, is the 50 kt a 1-min wind? I assume so, but let me know.

P.S. Mystery solved Re: Gustav: the data record is incomplete-- it ends at 1020Z, whereas landfall very close to that area was at 1500Z-- so they probably had some kind of equipment or power failure before the highest winds arrived.

That view is from when Galliano was in the eye, so it wouldn't have strong winds then. that having been said, I looked at the H*WIND analyses and they seem low given the readings at official reporting stations like KGAO and KHUM. They don't totally match up.

Oh ok, there is a big difference between shingle damage and small bits removed as compared to actual roof tearing, so yeah everything seems to match up. KGAO is a standard ASOS or AWOS so yup, 1-min wind. I wonder if there is 1-min data or even 1-sec stored anywhere, might be something worth looking into if you want the full wind record. I'd try searching around the NCDC.

H*WIND probably assumes way higher friction than what's actually present in calculating the winds over Louisiana... land parameterization schemes don't work very well in coastal swamps since it's a hybrid between land and water, with lots of area of open water that aren't accounted for (especially during surge). The estimated drag coefficient ends up being too high so actual winds are higher than the analysis.

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which storm Isaac?My bad posted wrong one,I believe at this time you were reporting getting smoked?

Yeah, and that is around when KGAO was having sustained winds of 50 kt, but the isotachs don't reflect that. I'm surprised, because airport readings are as true as you get.

The H*WIND analyses often don't match up with what I'm experiencing on the ground. In Karl 2010, for example, they showed me getting 80- or 85-kt sustained winds, whereas I really don't think they were that high at my location:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/Operational/2010/AL132010/AL132010_swath_max1minWind_knots.pdf

More and more, I'm realizing that these analyses really are an experimental product.

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Oh ok, there is a big difference between shingle damage and small bits removed as compared to actual roof tearing, so yeah everything seems to match up. KGAO is a standard ASOS or AWOS so yup, 1-min wind. I wonder if there is 1-min data or even 1-sec stored anywhere, might be something worth looking into if you want the full wind record. I'd try searching around the NCDC.

Oh, that would be awesome. Please let me know if you find out anything else-- would love to see more detail. By the way, Adam posted the 20-min obs for this station (a few pages back).

H*WIND probably assumes way higher friction than what's actually present in calculating the winds over Louisiana... land parameterization schemes don't work very well in coastal swamps since it's a hybrid between land and water, with lots of area of open water that aren't accounted for (especially during surge). The estimated drag coefficient ends up being too high so actual winds are higher than the analysis.

Ah, interesting-- so it's like the Everglades, kind of? So wouldn't they take that into account?

Your explanation might also explain why the Karl estimates seemed high to me-- that maybe they didn't factor in the extra friction of the more hilly terrain there? Just thinking out loud.

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One interesting note: Scott heard the Mayor of Grand Isle (a little S of me) absolutely flipping out over how powerful the winds were and how scary it was, saying there's no way this was a Cat 1, it had to have been a 3, etc Keep in mind, this is a dude who's been in a dozen hurricanes, probably. I don't think his viewpoint is scientific, and I don't doubt that this was a Cat 1 or Cat 2 at the very most-- but I find his strong reaction to it curious in light of the H*WIND, which show winds no higher than 60 kt at his location.

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Regarding Gustav:

KGAO stopped reporting at 10Z on Sep 1, 2008, when Gustav was still around 40 miles south of Galliano in the Gulf:

At the time, sustained winds at Galliano were at 43 kt and increasing (2 hours before, they were only 29 kt).

http://www.wundergro...ilyHistory.html

Peak gusts in the New Orleans area occurred around 14Z.

NHC post-storm report: http://www.nhc.noaa....2008_Gustav.pdf

Sorry, Justin-- I missed this post and essentially repeated you without realizing it!

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On interesting note: Scott heard the Mayor of Grand Isle (a little S of me) absolutely flipping out over how powerful the winds were and how scary it was, saying there's no way this was a Cat 1, it had to have been a 3, etc. I don't think his viewpoint is scientific, and I don't doubt that this was a Cat 1 or Cat 2 at the very most-- but I find his strong reaction to it curious in light of the H*WIND, which show winds no higher than 60 kt at his location.

I am excited OU had mobile dopplers in place, look forward to seeing the results.

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Oh, that would be awesome. Please let me know if you find out anything else-- would love to see more detail. By the way, Adam posted the 20-min obs for this station (a few pages back).

Ah, interesting-- so it's like the Everglades, kind of? So wouldn't they take that into account?

Your explanation might also explain why the Karl estimates seemed high to me-- that maybe they didn't factor in the extra friction of the more hilly terrain there? Just thinking out loud.

Problem is the horizontal resolution is 5 km, smoothing out finer scale features. You can't resolve the individual waterways and islands, so you end up with 5 km X 5 km patches with uniform properties, which likely makes the drag too high in any coastal swamp environment. I don't think they account for the water level increase from surge either since that would become a non-linear problem, and the surge will decrease drag quite a bit.

And yup exactly, the resolution is too low to capture the ruggedness of terrain, so you end up with smooth hills that allow too much wind. Topography interactions are very poorly modeled in general due to resolution.

HWIND stores the raw wind data they use for each analysis, it's worth analyzing that and comparing it to the analysis to see what sort of modifications they made, and if those modifications seem reasonable.

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This is that story Re: the Mayor of Grand Isle's reaction to the storm. Again, he's not a met or even a chaser, so take his wind estimates with a grain of salt. But I do think it's interesting that someone who's been in so many hurricanes down there had such a strong reaction to this one:

http://www.nola.com/...ac_over_gr.html

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Problem is the horizontal resolution is 5 km, smoothing out finer scale features. You can't resolve the individual waterways and islands, so you end up with 5 km X 5 km patches with uniform properties, which likely makes the drag too high in any coastal swamp environment. I don't think they account for the water level increase from surge either since that would become a non-linear problem, and the surge will decrease drag quite a bit.

And yup exactly, the resolution is too low to capture the ruggedness of terrain, so you end up with smooth hills that allow too much wind. Topography interactions are very poorly modeled in general due to resolution.

HWIND stores the raw wind data they use to make measurements for each analysis, it's worth analyzing that and comparing it to the analysis to see what sort of modifications they made, and if those modifications seem reasonable.

Thanks, Turtle. I am curious why the KGAO winds don't seem to be reflected. For a Cat 1, we got pounded good. It was better than any other Cat 1 I've been in except maybe Ernie, although that was such a different cyclone-- a tiny, fast-moving micro-- just a completely different ballgame-- so it's hard to even compare them.

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Josh, no worries at all -- next time (and no offense but I hope there isn't a next time for down there) if you need anything at all, let me know! Soooo many resources down there!

<3 You did an amazing job, and I'm glad you got to experience the ultimate in coon-assery. Galliano is fantastic, and I always explain the areas down there as countries of their own. It's like an entirely different world down there, and if you did not know, you would never assume it was part of the United States.

I miss it, terribly.

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which storm Isaac?My bad posted wrong one,I believe at this time you were reporting getting smoked?

Yeah, and that is around when KGAO was having sustained winds of 50 kt, but the isotachs don't reflect that. I'm surprised, because airport readings are as true as you get.

The H*WIND analyses often don't match up with what I'm experiencing on the ground. In Karl 2010, for example, they showed me getting 80- or 85-kt sustained winds, whereas I really don't think they were that high at my location:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/Operational/2010/AL132010/AL132010_swath_max1minWind_knots.pdf

More and more, I'm realizing that these analyses really are an experimental product.

One other thing about the H*WIND that doesn't jibe with what KGAO measured or what I experienced: it suggests we had our strongest winds around 1630Z, after the eye passed. That is simply not the case. The backide of the cyclone was much weaker in Galliano.

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Here is the full last 18 hours of obs:

KGAO 290915Z AUTO 05019G34KT 3SM -RA 24/24 A2865 RMK AO2

KGAO 290855Z AUTO 05022G31KT 5SM -RA 24/24 A2869 RMK AO2

KGAO 290835Z AUTO 05020G29KT 5SM -RA 24/24 A2874 RMK AO2

KGAO 290815Z AUTO 05016G28KT 5SM -RA 24/24 A2876 RMK AO2

KGAO 290755Z AUTO 06018G30KT 2 1/2SM -RA 25/25 A2874 RMK AO2 P0020

KGAO 290735Z AUTO 05027G44KT 2SM -RA 25/25 A2867 RMK AO2 P0019

KGAO 290715Z AUTO 02043G56KT 2SM +RA 23/23 A2868 RMK AO2 P0015

KGAO 290655Z AUTO 02044G61KT 1 1/4SM +RA 23/23 A2877 RMK AO2 P0048

KGAO 290635Z AUTO 02037G60KT 1 1/2SM +RA 24/24 A2883 RMK AO2 P0023

KGAO 290555Z AUTO 02033G54KT 2 1/2SM -RA 24/24 A2891 RMK AO2 P0048

KGAO 290535Z AUTO 01040G60KT 1 1/2SM RA 24/24 A2894 RMK AO2 P0038

KGAO 290515Z AUTO 01041G56KT 1 1/2SM +RA 24/24 A2897 RMK AO2 P0020

KGAO 290455Z AUTO 01050G67KT 1 3/4SM RA 24/24 A2899 RMK AO2 P0036

KGAO 290435Z AUTO 01045G60KT 2SM RA 25/25 A2901 RMK AO2 P0027

KGAO 290415Z AUTO 01047G62KT 1 1/4SM +RA 24/24 A2902 RMK AO2 P0020

KGAO 290355Z AUTO 36047G61KT 1 1/4SM +RA 25/25 A2904 RMK AO2 P0082

KGAO 290335Z AUTO 35050G65KT 1 1/4SM +RA 24/24 A2905 RMK AO2 P0057

KGAO 290315Z AUTO 34041G64KT 3/4SM +RA 24/24 A2908 RMK AO2 P0036

KGAO 290255Z AUTO 35038G66KT 3SM RA 25/25 A2913 RMK AO2 P0045

KGAO 290235Z AUTO 34046G61KT 2 1/2SM RA 24/24 A2916 RMK AO2 P0042

KGAO 290215Z AUTO 34045G58KT 1 1/2SM +RA 23/23 A2915 RMK AO2 P0031

KGAO 290155Z AUTO 34047G55KT 1 1/2SM +RA 23/23 A2918 RMK AO2 P0068

KGAO 290135Z AUTO 34045G59KT 2SM +RA 23/23 A2918 RMK AO2 P0047

KGAO 290115Z AUTO 34044G60KT 1 1/4SM +RA 23/23 A2919 RMK AO2 P0033

KGAO 290055Z AUTO 34046G62KT 1 1/2SM +RA 24/24 A2919 RMK AO2 P0047

KGAO 290035Z AUTO 33045G56KT 1 3/4SM +RA 24/24 A2918 RMK AO2 P0022

KGAO 290015Z AUTO 33041G53KT 5SM -RA 25/25 A2922 RMK AO2 P0001

KGAO 282355Z AUTO 33037G50KT 2 1/2SM RA 24/24 A2925 RMK AO2 P0012

KGAO 282335Z AUTO 33036G48KT 3SM RA 24/24 A2926 RMK AO2 P0008

KGAO 282315Z AUTO 33034G46KT 1 3/4SM RA 24/24 A2929 RMK AO2 P0004 LTG DSNT E

KGAO 282255Z AUTO 33037G49KT 2SM RA BKN007 OVC012 25/25 A2930 RMK AO2 P0018

KGAO 282235Z AUTO 33033G47KT 1 1/2SM RA 24/24 A2932 RMK AO2 P0015

KGAO 282215Z AUTO 33032G46KT 1 1/2SM RA 25/25 A2932 RMK AO2 P0008

KGAO 282155Z AUTO 33034G46KT 1 3/4SM RA 25/25 A2933 RMK AO2 P0026

KGAO 282135Z AUTO 33029G41KT 1 3/4SM RA 25/25 A2934 RMK AO2 P0019

KGAO 282055Z AUTO 33027G39KT 4SM RA BKN010 BKN014 OVC023 25/25 A2936 RMK AO2 P0004

KGAO 282035Z AUTO 33032G40KT 5SM RA SCT005 BKN011 BKN019 25/25 A2939 RMK AO2 P0002

KGAO 282015Z AUTO 32026G38KT 10SM -RA SCT005 BKN012 BKN026 25/25 A2939 RMK AO2 P0001

KGAO 281955Z AUTO 33027G40KT 1 3/4SM RA BKN005 BKN009 BKN015 25/25 A2943 RMK AO2 VIS 1V5 P0008

KGAO 281935Z AUTO 33026G34KT 10SM -RA SCT009 SCT014 BKN031 26/26 A2945 RMK AO2 P0004

KGAO 281915Z AUTO 34026G37KT 1 3/4SM +RA SCT004 BKN008 BKN012 26/26 A2948 RMK AO2 VIS 3/4V5 P0004

KGAO 281855Z AUTO 34024G34KT 10SM SCT017 SCT026 SCT034 27/27 A2949 RMK AO2 P0006

KGAO 281835Z AUTO 34025G33KT 10SM SCT007 SCT012 BKN030 27/27 A2950 RMK AO2 P0006

KGAO 281815Z AUTO 34020G29KT 2SM -RA SCT004 BKN007 OVC013 25/25 A2952 RMK AO2 P0006

KGAO 281755Z AUTO 34021G27KT 7SM +RA SCT006 SCT010 BKN016 25/25 A2954 RMK AO2 P0014

KGAO 281735Z AUTO 34023G29KT 5SM -RA SCT006 BKN013 BKN021 26/26 A2955 RMK AO2 P0013

Can Adam or someone else point me to the rest of the data, following the 290915Z reading? I want to see what kind of winds were measured after the eye.

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That was the last report before that station crapped the bed.

http://www.wrh.noaa....144&raw=1&dbn=m

Ah, OK. Thanks, Cory. I wonder why it died in the eye. Well, I am 99% sure the highest winds preceded the eye-- the backside was just kinda blah. (Whether KGAO actually sampled those peak, front-side winds is a question, however.)

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