lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 With the first week of cooler temps (highs in the 70s for the next week) I figured id start a thread for the hopefully cooler weeks/months ahead. Meteorological Fall is only about 3 weeks away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 It looks like a lake effect rain band has formed over central and western lake erie this morning, with 850 mb temps around 9C and lake temps around 25C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 11, 2012 Author Share Posted August 11, 2012 It looks like a lake effect rain band has formed over central and western lake erie this morning, with 850 mb temps around 9C and lake temps around 25C. NWS mentions chance of lake rain overnight for us on a WSW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Fall already? I was just getting used to summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Fall already? I was just getting used to summer. Still 3 1/2 months away from snow, let me enjoy this nice weather please. September is a summer month, not a Fall month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 11, 2012 Author Share Posted August 11, 2012 -- Changed Discussion --WV IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY THIS MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO SHOW A STACKED SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW IS SEEN MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO NEW YORK FROM THE FINGER LAKES EAST. A WELL-PRONOUNCED...BUT SHRINKING DRY SLOT CAN BE SEEN IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF MOISTURE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. EVEN ACROSS THIS REGION OF DRIER AIR VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS PLENTY OF DIURNAL STRATO-CU DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE AT THIS TIME. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE FEATURE THIS MORNING HOWEVER IS A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE WITH A CLEARLY DEFINED LAKE ENHANCEMENT SIGNATURE...NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE WELL-ALIGNED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND +10C TEMPS ALOFT AS COMPARED TO THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM LAKE TEMPS OF +24C. THIS FEATURE IS ALSO BEING AIDED BY A VORTMAX ALOFT AS SEEN ON WV IMAGERY. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE VORTMAX PUSHES EAST INTO THE REGION. WHILE THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN THE FLOW REALLY VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT KICKS INTO GEAR...IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA TO PICK UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. FARTHER EAST...LOOK FOR INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH SFC-BASED CAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE OFF ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO REGIONS...THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY SLOT SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY LIMITED TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW CENTER. THE WARMER READINGS THAT MAY CRACK INTO THE LOWER 80S WILL BE FOUND FROM THE FINGER LAKES EAST WHERE MORE SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CRACK THE 80 DEGREE MARK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Coming up to Cooperstown area this week, Tuesday - Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 14, 2012 Author Share Posted August 14, 2012 Picked up a quick 0.95" in about 45 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 5, 2012 Author Share Posted September 5, 2012 Cant believe the offical start of autumn is only about 2 weeks away! Bring on the cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 78 degrees right now, it is too hot out right now. I am really looking forward to this weekend with temps staying in the 60's with some much needed rain. We are almost into fall!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Some excitement! A Severe Thunderstorm Watch up for a lot of Central & Western NY until 9. Had 1 warning which was cancelled after about 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 We actually have a pretty good setup, considering we're in September now. CAPE values of 2,000 to 3,000 J/kg and decent lapse rates. I could even see some storms go severe slightly southeast of where the current watch is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 The spc has most of the state east of SYR in a moderate risk for tomorrow. Instability will be limited given dew points in the mid 60s and not very steep mid level lapse rates, but good dynamics in the right entrance region of the 300 mb jet may offset the lower CAPE. The nam is more negatively tilted and slower with the trough at 500 mb than the gfs, probably because of a stronger jet upstream. The setup of the gfs would be much less favorable for significant severe weather with an earlier passage of the front, less instability and weaker low level directional shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Yep. Looks like a busy day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 SSE winds at 925 mb would favor the valley regions and western hills of the capital district for tornado producing supercells. The 15z SREF seems quite bullish about the supercell threat ahead of the main mcs with 0-3 km helicity >200 probabilities near 90% in the mid hudson valley and cape > 500 j/kg probabilities also around 90%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 The spc has most of the state east of SYR in a moderate risk for tomorrow. Instability will be limited given dew points in the mid 60s and not very steep mid level lapse rates, but good dynamics in the right entrance region of the 300 mb jet may offset the lower CAPE. The nam is more negatively tilted and slower with the trough at 500 mb than the gfs, probably because of a stronger jet upstream. The setup of the gfs would be much less favorable for significant severe weather with an earlier passage of the front, less instability and weaker low level directional shear. EC is like the NAM too and it looks like the UK may be leaning that way as well especially as it rates to negative tilting of the trough aloft. GFS is woefully low on the LP too. The forecast track along the SLRV with deepening is classice for severe weather and/or strong synoptic winds (esp fall thru spring). SSE winds at 925 mb would favor the valley regions and western hills of the capital district for tornado producing supercells. The 15z SREF seems quite bullish about the supercell threat ahead of the main mcs with 0-3 km helicity >200 probabilities near 90% in the mid hudson valley and cape > 500 j/kg probabilities also around 90%. Actually the SSE wind in the Lowest levels favors spinups in the Hudson Valley and could also favor development X the Catskill Creek Basin with cells moving out of it (and off the EAST slopes of the Catskills) and heading up towards SVT the Taconics and the Berkshires. It is the rapid veering of winds in the lowest 0.5-1Km that will cause the potential tornadic supercells but these will actually be in the HV and then move towards the higher terrain to the east of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 First forcast low in the 30's for the season. Always a good sign. Kortright Center NY En Español Overcast 66°F Monday Mostly Sunny High: 66 °F Monday Night Mostly Clear Low: 39 °F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Gonna be a fun day. Storms already firing up over NJ and ripping north as the juicy air is surging up ahead of the front. Plus, FROPA for most of us will be at the optimal time of day. Who says September is boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 It is going to be wild. Storms also starting to fire up in Western NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 QLCS approaching the eastern shore of Lake Ontario. We'll see if it produces severe winds and/or high surf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Had some ripping winds earlier gusting in the high 50s and 1.26" of rain so far. Some pretty serious damage in the City of Buffalo itself from a microburst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 These are from Buffalo from earlier, these are not my photos they are from WIVB meteorologist Bryan Shaws facebook page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Had a bolt of lightning hit 10-20 feet from my house earlier today. Was the loudest thing thunder I have ever heard. Pretty Epic! Rain was definitely beneficial, now lets get back to the 75-80 and sun straight through December 1st then we can get hit with back to back bouts of 20-30 inches of LES. =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 That 2nd line fell apart once it reached Oneida County. Seems as though the 1st line will be the main show now. 25 mph gust when it came through around 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 After the MCS went through, strong wnw flow and lowering 850 mb temperatures were enough to produce a waterspout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 10, 2012 Author Share Posted September 10, 2012 Topped out at 67 here and Im down to 59 already. Pretty fall feeling evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 10, 2012 Author Share Posted September 10, 2012 Topped out at 66 today. Down to 58 already. Should get into the low 40s tonight. Got down to 47 last night, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Got up to the upper 50's today. Felt great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 34.8° and dropping at 5:30. My windsheild was covered in ice (fairly heavy) and had to wait for that to thaw to head out. Beautiful. I'm hoping my garden didn't get hit, but I'm not real hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Currently 49 by the lake, cooler than I was expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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