andyhb Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 The thread for the possible change coming up being shown by most of the models for next week. 12z Euro showing two possible events relating to a powerful upper level trough setting up shop on the West Coast starting around 120-144 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 the gfs op is fun. 18z looks totally different than 12z. but the euro ensemble mean looks great late in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2012 Author Share Posted May 16, 2012 The 12z Euro OP was pretty impressive...not only the first system, but the one at the end of the run looks perhaps even more intense. And yeah, the 12z Euro ensemble, that trough is huge (clearly there are several members that have similar verbatims to the OP). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 The 12z Euro OP was pretty impressive...not only the first system, but the one at the end of the run looks perhaps even more intense. And yeah, the 12z Euro ensemble, that trough is huge (clearly there are several members that have similar verbatims to the OP). i think generally the models have trouble with pattern change/realignment so some bounce should be expected. the gfs is pretty crappy overall as a model. the euro seems to be trying to lock in which is always a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2012 Author Share Posted May 16, 2012 12z Canuck has something too at the end of its run. Even its ensemble is hinting at something, which is not something you usually explicitly see this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Happy days are here again? The GFS, ECM, and CMC show a nice change from the hair-pulling lack of weather we've had for the past few weeks. Hopefully that SPC "Potential Too Low" statement will be gone soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2012 Author Share Posted May 16, 2012 140 kt H3 jet streak coming ashore on the 18z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 I'm a strong believer in the rubber band theory in weather. After this period of quiescence, I would expect things to become more active. Good to see the models starting to trend in that direction for next week through the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Reed Timmer posted on Facebook earlier about Saturday (the 19th) two different areas he was considering Minnesota, or Kansas, what do you think? (Even though there isn't much potential) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 Reed Timmer posted on Facebook earlier about Saturday (the 19th) two different areas he was considering Minnesota, or Kansas, what do you think? (Even though there isn't much potential) Kansas for sure, if he goes to MN he may be miss what I believe will be the big show in SW OK. The models have slowed the system down somewhat as the cold front runs into the the surface ridge, but as of now the best shear is still post frontal passage in my back yard here in MN. It still looks kind of junky. Because this system has slowed the southern extent of the cold front is looking more and more promising for Sunday evening, time will tell. This set up has always intrigued me, were the models to quick to break down the surface ridge? If so what will happen with the trailing cold front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 Kansas for sure, if he goes to MN he may be miss what I believe will be the big show in SW OK. The models have slowed the system down somewhat as the cold front runs into the the surface ridge, but as of now the best shear is still post frontal passage in my back yard here in MN. It still looks kind of junky. Because this system has slowed the southern extent of the cold front is looking more and more promising for Sunday evening, time will tell. This set up has always intrigued me, were the models to quick to break down the surface ridge? If so what will happen with the trailing cold front? I've been thinking the same here, but there might be some questions relating to shear... It also depends on what the Storm Mode will be, or if it will be more isolated convection, or widespread... So many variables... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 18Z 78-hour NAM has something pretty big developing along the Dryline on saturday (In Western KS)... Between the Thermonuclear Cap in the Eastern half of Kansas, and in Colorado/Nebraska... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 I sense a Tornado Outbreak Sequence with the MASSIVE Trough that is on the 18Z GFS in the Central Plains... 192ish-hours through 252-hours... I would LOVE if that would verify, with 90-110+ kts Jet-Streak for 60-hours over the same area.. EDIT: I would like to see it verify wind wise... I don't want the winds to be post-frontal through... Like it's showing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 I've been thinking the same here, but there might be some questions relating to shear... It also depends on what the Storm Mode will be, or if it will be more isolated convection, or widespread... So many variables... yes shear values are somewhat minimal, around 35 knots for 0-6km shear or so at this time, but looking at 0-3km cape, plus 0-3 helicity , and other things near the surface, that just may be enough shear. It wouldn't surprise me to see the next 4-8 day outlook say predictability to low and mention the sw OK area in their text discussion. For instance here is one field: Storm Relative Helicity surface to 3km, this has been pretty consistent the last two model runs 16/0z and 16/12z, I can't show the 6z or 18z, but it agrees, this is getting to be a pretty strong signal IMO, of course things could change, but at this time I don't think so, the models have seem to lock on to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 yes shear values are somewhat minimal, around 35 knots for 0-6km shear or so at this time, but looking at 0-3km cape, plus 0-3 helicity , and other things near the surface, that just may be enough shear. It wouldn't surprise me to see the next 4-8 day outlook say predictability to low and mention the sw OK area in their text discussion. For instance here is one field: Storm Relative Helicity surface to 3km, this has been pretty consistent the last two model runs 16/0z and 16/12z, I can't show the 6z or 18z, but it agrees, this is getting to be a pretty strong signal IMO, of course things could change, but at this time I don't think so, the models have seem to lock on to it. Wow... 480+ SR Helicity's.... I would most of Western Oklahoma, and the extreme eastern part of Texas Pan-Handle should be on the look out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 I sense a Tornado Outbreak Sequence with the MASSIVE Trough that is on the 18Z GFS in the Central Plains... 192ish-hours through 252-hours... I would LOVE if that would verify, with 90-110+ kts Jet-Streak for 60-hours over the same area.. EDIT: I would like to see it verify wind wise... I don't want the winds to be post-frontal through... Like it's showing... That is a bit of stretch to be making calls like that at this juncture. Hold your horses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 A request to all posters. Please try and discuss the overall pattern evolution....perhaps consider posting upper air maps, surface maps, etc. while keeping in mind the natural variability of weather. I don't mind people getting excited, but keep it realistic please. Posting STP maps over and over again is unnecessary, calling for tornado outbreaks day 10 based off one GFS run (which doesn't even look all that great), etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 That is a bit of stretch to be making calls like that at this juncture. Hold your horses. I realize this... I'm just making rash statements since it's Prime-Tornado Season, and we haven't seen anything yet But wasted Moderate Potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 I realize this... I'm just making rash statements since it's Prime-Tornado Season, and we haven't seen anything yet But wasted Moderate Potential... Please don't make rash statements though. See above posts...keep the discussion relevant. You will find that I dislike hyperbole. I like your enthusiasm, but sometimes it is just better to read first and then post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 Wow... 480+ SR Helicity's.... I would most of Western Oklahoma, and the extreme eastern part of Texas Pan-Handle should be on the look out.... Unless something changes big time, I would not chase in MN, I do have to work the next 5 days, so it will be quicker looks at the maps, at this time (if I were a chaser,) I would have to make a decision, do I have my passport and visa ready to go into Canada on Sat.? Or do I want to go south on Saturday and see what happens and possibly position my self to move to sw OK on Sunday? Based on what I'm seeing now....no brainier, go south my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 Please don't make rash statements though. See above posts...keep the discussion relevant. You will find that I dislike hyperbole. I like your enthusiasm, but sometimes it is just better to read first and then post. But it was relevant to a previous discussion, on the previous thread, but everybody kind of has switched their attention to Saturday-Monday (Which I don't find much interest in) So I was simply reminding everybody of a possibly oncoming event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 hr 108 is also under pretty high heights with no real jet dynamics after the weekend trough passes.. not sure why the focus. edit: was looking at 18z v 12z.. oops. Well, the surface winds on the 108-hour GFS happen to be from the Northeast in SW OK... Not exactly what I would consider incredibly favorable for SVR WX... But I question the GFS a bit, because just north of SW OK it has South winds, and just south of SW OK it has south winds... Probably just associated with the Cold Front being weak I assume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 A request to all posters. Please try and discuss the overall pattern evolution....perhaps consider posting upper air maps, surface maps, etc. while keeping in mind the natural variability of weather. I don't mind people getting excited, but keep it realistic please. Posting STP maps over and over again is unnecessary, calling for tornado outbreaks day 10 based off one GFS run (which doesn't even look all that great), etc. Baro, I here you, those maps that I have posted are for this weekend, I hope you don't take offense to those, anything beyond 120 hrs is fantasy IMO. I was just showing that there was a good possibility of a surprise coming on Sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 Well, the surface winds on the 108-hour GFS happen to be from the Northeast in SW OK... Not exactly what I would consider incredibly favorable for SVR WX... But I question the GFS a bit, because just north of SW OK it has South winds, and just south of SW OK it has south winds... Probably just associated with the Cold Front being weak I assume? i havent looked that close at the weekend other than 500 maps -- which is about what i've looked at beyond as well. from that angle at least it doesn't look that special. parameters are nice but they don't always mean a whole lot. that said i deleted by post because 12z did look at least a bit better than 18z (which was also looking at 6z v 0z. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 17, 2012 Author Share Posted May 17, 2012 But it was relevant to a previous discussion, on the previous thread, but everybody kind of has switched their attention to Saturday-Monday (Which I don't find much interest in) So I was simply reminding everybody of a possibly oncoming event... That's because it is closer in timeframe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 17, 2012 Author Share Posted May 17, 2012 Anyway, the 00z GFS is digging that jet streak much more than previous runs... Why, hello there... It goes eastwards at 192 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 We are really looking at the 19th and have liked the Woodward area for several runs of the GFS now. Quality of moisture is really the big problem here and depending on how much we can get back north but the shear will be there for supercells with decent flow over the dryline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 I do believe the only word for what the ECMWF shows next Friday (D+9, I know) in the central High Plains is "epic." Possibly some less strongly-forced mischief the two days prior, as well. This Saturday in OK/TX looks quite marginal, but should at least give the tour groups a break from Plains sightseeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 17, 2012 Author Share Posted May 17, 2012 Monstrous trough on the 00z Euro, man that sucker is expansive, and it looks to be reloading at the end of its run again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 17, 2012 Author Share Posted May 17, 2012 Pretty impressive to have an 8-10 day ensemble mean showing something like this (particularly referring to the Euro side of it here)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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