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22nd - 24th Storm potential. Eastern Lakes


SpartyOn

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DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND

RETROGRESSES TO NEW YORK STATE ON MONDAY. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED BY

GFS AND ECMWF...THE EC IS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN GFS...BUT THE

RESULT IS ABOUT THE SAME.

TO PUT THIS INTO SOME PERSPECTIVE...THIS PATTERN IS ALMOST A FRAME

BY FRAME REPLAY OF AN EVENT WHICH OCCURRED ON THE 2ND AND 3RD OF

APRIL 2005. THERE WAS AN 8 INCH SNOWFALL AT KBUF WITH MORE THAN A

FOOT OF SNOW ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AND EVEN TWO FEET OF SNOW

ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PA AND NORTHEAST OHIO.

THE CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIMILAR AMOUNT

OF SNOW IN VERY SIMILAR LOCATIONS. GLANCING AT A COMPARISON OF THE

2005 EVENT AND CURRENT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...THE VERTICAL TEMP/DEWPOINT

PROFILE IS NEARLY EXACT WITH THE CURRENT DATA SHOWING EVEN MORE

MOISTURE ALOFT. THE 2005 EVENT HAD PRECIPITABLE WATER RANGING FROM

45 INCH TO .55 INCH

THE CURRENT DATA SHOW PWS AT OR ABOVE .75

INCH. ADDITIONALLY...THE 850MB TEMPS ARE COLDER BY A DEGREE OR TWO

SOUTH OF BUFFALO TO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

SPEAKING OF MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WRAPPED

ABOUT THIS STORM...QPF FOR CENTRAL NY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WILL BE

ON THE ORDER OF 2.5 INCHES WITH 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN

NY. THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SYR

AND ROC SOUTHWARD ALONG SENECA AND CAYUGA LAKES. THE HEAVIEST SNOW

WILL LIKELY BE CENTERED ACROSS ALLEGANY/WYOMING/CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES

WITH SNOW TOTAL EXCEEDING A FOOT...ENHANCED BY NORTHEASTERLY TO

NORTHERN WINDS AND THE UPLIFT ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPE OF THE GENESEE

VALLEY.

IN TERMS OF HOW POTENTIALLY UNUSUAL THIS WHOLE EVENT COULD BE (ESP

THE SNOW ASPECT OF IT)...NEARLY ALL OF THE MAJOR FORECAST PARAMETERS

(H5/7 HGHTS...MSLP...H85 TEMPS...U AND V WIND COMPONENTS) ARE 4 TO 5

STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL. IT IS CERTAINLY SIGNIFICANT WHEN A

COUPLE FORECAST PARAMETERS ARE THAT ANOMALOUS...BUT WHEN NEARLY ALL

OF THE MAIN FACTORS ARE THIS FAR FROM NORMAL...THEN THE EVENT STARTS

TO RISE TO THAT OF A MEMORABLE OR EVEN HISTORIC STATURE. THAT BEING

SAID...THESE PARAMETERS HAVE TO COME TOGETHER IN THE PERFECT MIX AND

THAT IS STILL FAR FROM A CERTAINTY.

:wub: :wub:

Doesn't matter if its 500-1000 miles away this type of stuff still is great for a :weenie: like myself!!

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As well as Buffalo NY! Extrapolated would definitely include Toronto as well :lol:

:stun::wub:

http://forecast.weat...ter+Storm+Watch

Environment Canada does not see eye to eye. And they are correct wrt lower elevations.

WOCN11 CWTO 211915

Special weather statement

Updated by Environment Canada

At 3:15 PM EDT Saturday 21 April 2012.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Special weather statement for:

City of Toronto

Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk

Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand

Oxford - Brant

Niagara

City of Hamilton

Halton - Peel

York - Durham

Waterloo - Wellington

Dufferin - Innisfil

Barrie - Orillia - Midland

Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland

Kingston - Prince Edward

Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes

Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac

Bancroft - Bon Echo Park

Brockville - Leeds and Grenville

City of Ottawa

Gatineau

Prescott and Russell

Cornwall - Morrisburg

Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake

Parry Sound - Muskoka

Haliburton

Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay

Algonquin

Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.

Cold, windy and wet on Monday.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

==discussion==

A low pressure system developing over the gulf of Mexico this

afternoon is expected to move up to eastern seaboard, and undergo

rapid development on Sunday. This system is expected to track

northward and reach Eastern Ontario by Monday evening, then east of

James Bay by Tuesday evening.

Current indications suggest that precipitation ahead of this low is

expected to push north and westward, beginning over areas near the St

Lawrence river Sunday overnight. The precipitation will reach areas

from Renfrew to Newmarket and the Niagara regions by Monday morning,

and then to all the areas from east of Georgian Bay to Barrie to

Eastern Lake Erie by Monday afternoon.

The precipitation is expected to begin as a mix of rain, snow and ice

pellets before changing over to rain. Further north, precipitation is

likely to remain as wet snow. However with the temperatures hovering

above freezing, no significant accumulations are expected at this

time.

In addition, this system will bring in strong north winds, keeping

temperatures 7 to 10 degrees below seasonal.

Conditions are expected to improve somewhat on Tuesday.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as

warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment

Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End

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Besides elevation, I think the key for getting accumulating snow in the Toronto city/downtown core will be precip rates and dynamics. Heavier rates with strong dynamics could/will overcome the strong April sun. But if it is weaker, most of the snow will simply melt on contact.

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Besides elevation, I think the key for getting accumulating snow in the Toronto city/downtown core will be precip rates and dynamics. Heavier rates with strong dynamics could/will overcome the strong April sun. But if it is weaker, most of the snow will simply melt on contact.

From what I'm hearing , dynamics could be very good with this storm as there is a very good chance for TSSN.

Also 12z EURO showing 5-8'' for YYZ

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Environment Canada does not see eye to eye. And they are correct wrt lower elevations.

Cold, windy and wet on Monday.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

==discussion==

A low pressure system developing over the gulf of Mexico this

afternoon is expected to move up to eastern seaboard, and undergo

rapid development on Sunday. This system is expected to track

northward and reach Eastern Ontario by Monday evening, then east of

James Bay by Tuesday evening.

Current indications suggest that precipitation ahead of this low is

expected to push north and westward, beginning over areas near the St

Lawrence river Sunday overnight. The precipitation will reach areas

from Renfrew to Newmarket and the Niagara regions by Monday morning,

and then to all the areas from east of Georgian Bay to Barrie to

Eastern Lake Erie by Monday afternoon.

The precipitation is expected to begin as a mix of rain, snow and ice

pellets before changing over to rain. Further north, precipitation is

likely to remain as wet snow. However with the temperatures hovering

above freezing, no significant accumulations are expected at this

time.

In addition, this system will bring in strong north winds, keeping

temperatures 7 to 10 degrees below seasonal.

Conditions are expected to improve somewhat on Tuesday.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as

warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment

Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End

EC is out to lunch common man you know it :lol: I know you're trying the anti-jynx but don't worry you're in a pretty sweet spot with this beast!!

18Z NAM is coming in even a bit stronger!!

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Impressive to see Upper 20s showing up during the middle of the day in late April! Looks like Buffalo, Toronto will have a good shot at snow, given the snow is coming in towards late afternoon and sticking around through the evening.

temp48.gif

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It would be a absolute hoot if this sucker could back west another couple hundred miles. A heavy wet snow event would be interesting around here.

7 years ago around the time of this storm dropped 16" in Lake Orion. No big deal. Its gone like 5 hrs after the storm is passed. Its a wasted track for BUF and YYZ. The last of the snow fell late Sunday Night. In the Morning i measured peak depth of 11". It was gone by 1 pm. Never seen snow melt so fast in my life and temps were in the low 40's.

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That higher areas SW of Buffalo looked to get crushed! Good get interesting near the OH/PA border. Also: http://oi43.tinypic.com/2evu4cy.jpg

nam_namer_045_1000_500_thick.gif

Check out the total qpf! NW flow will be enhancing the snowfall over far western NY, western PA, far NE OH, and northern WV. Looks like some lake enhancement off of Georgian Bay!

nam_namer_084_precip_ptot.gif

If it shifted only 50 miles west Columbus would get some snow, I actually hope it will not shift this time. Power would be out for a week at least.

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If it shifted only 50 miles west Columbus would get some snow, I actually hope it will not shift this time. Power would be out for a week at least.

You're pretty close to the back edge then. Cleveland is right on edge of this one. Although, the back edge where the precipitation is lighter may be a liquid or a wet snow that doesn't stick well.

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Really? I am quite content to be on the western fringe looking in. At this time of year I want to be golfing, not shovelling. Golf demo day tomorrow and it will be painfully cold enough....

Hey, winter is my favorite season and as a weather nut, anomalous weather gets me excited. I am about 20 miles east of Cleveland and am at a decent elevation compared to the lakeshore, so if this thing takes the western track I think I can make out well.

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