baroclinic_instability Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 ECMWF spitting out anywhere from 4-8" of the white stuff across portions of the eastern lakes including Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Haha, it dumps up to 2' across the higher elevations of PA/NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 FTW - Winter Storm Watch issued for far western PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 FTW - Winter Storm Watch issued for far western PA. As well as Buffalo NY! Extrapolated would definitely include Toronto as well * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES * WINDS...NORTHEAST TO 40 MPH. http://forecast.weat...ter+Storm+Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND RETROGRESSES TO NEW YORK STATE ON MONDAY. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED BY GFS AND ECMWF...THE EC IS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN GFS...BUT THE RESULT IS ABOUT THE SAME. TO PUT THIS INTO SOME PERSPECTIVE...THIS PATTERN IS ALMOST A FRAME BY FRAME REPLAY OF AN EVENT WHICH OCCURRED ON THE 2ND AND 3RD OF APRIL 2005. THERE WAS AN 8 INCH SNOWFALL AT KBUF WITH MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AND EVEN TWO FEET OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PA AND NORTHEAST OHIO. THE CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIMILAR AMOUNT OF SNOW IN VERY SIMILAR LOCATIONS. GLANCING AT A COMPARISON OF THE 2005 EVENT AND CURRENT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...THE VERTICAL TEMP/DEWPOINT PROFILE IS NEARLY EXACT WITH THE CURRENT DATA SHOWING EVEN MORE MOISTURE ALOFT. THE 2005 EVENT HAD PRECIPITABLE WATER RANGING FROM 45 INCH TO .55 INCH THE CURRENT DATA SHOW PWS AT OR ABOVE .75 INCH. ADDITIONALLY...THE 850MB TEMPS ARE COLDER BY A DEGREE OR TWO SOUTH OF BUFFALO TO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. SPEAKING OF MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WRAPPED ABOUT THIS STORM...QPF FOR CENTRAL NY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2.5 INCHES WITH 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN NY. THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SYR AND ROC SOUTHWARD ALONG SENECA AND CAYUGA LAKES. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY BE CENTERED ACROSS ALLEGANY/WYOMING/CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES WITH SNOW TOTAL EXCEEDING A FOOT...ENHANCED BY NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERN WINDS AND THE UPLIFT ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPE OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. IN TERMS OF HOW POTENTIALLY UNUSUAL THIS WHOLE EVENT COULD BE (ESP THE SNOW ASPECT OF IT)...NEARLY ALL OF THE MAJOR FORECAST PARAMETERS (H5/7 HGHTS...MSLP...H85 TEMPS...U AND V WIND COMPONENTS) ARE 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL. IT IS CERTAINLY SIGNIFICANT WHEN A COUPLE FORECAST PARAMETERS ARE THAT ANOMALOUS...BUT WHEN NEARLY ALL OF THE MAIN FACTORS ARE THIS FAR FROM NORMAL...THEN THE EVENT STARTS TO RISE TO THAT OF A MEMORABLE OR EVEN HISTORIC STATURE. THAT BEING SAID...THESE PARAMETERS HAVE TO COME TOGETHER IN THE PERFECT MIX AND THAT IS STILL FAR FROM A CERTAINTY. :wub: Doesn't matter if its 500-1000 miles away this type of stuff still is great for a like myself!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 As well as Buffalo NY! Extrapolated would definitely include Toronto as well http://forecast.weat...ter+Storm+Watch Environment Canada does not see eye to eye. And they are correct wrt lower elevations. WOCN11 CWTO 211915 Special weather statement Updated by Environment Canada At 3:15 PM EDT Saturday 21 April 2012. --------------------------------------------------------------------- Special weather statement for: City of Toronto Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand Oxford - Brant Niagara City of Hamilton Halton - Peel York - Durham Waterloo - Wellington Dufferin - Innisfil Barrie - Orillia - Midland Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland Kingston - Prince Edward Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac Bancroft - Bon Echo Park Brockville - Leeds and Grenville City of Ottawa Gatineau Prescott and Russell Cornwall - Morrisburg Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake Parry Sound - Muskoka Haliburton Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay Algonquin Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet. Cold, windy and wet on Monday. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==discussion== A low pressure system developing over the gulf of Mexico this afternoon is expected to move up to eastern seaboard, and undergo rapid development on Sunday. This system is expected to track northward and reach Eastern Ontario by Monday evening, then east of James Bay by Tuesday evening. Current indications suggest that precipitation ahead of this low is expected to push north and westward, beginning over areas near the St Lawrence river Sunday overnight. The precipitation will reach areas from Renfrew to Newmarket and the Niagara regions by Monday morning, and then to all the areas from east of Georgian Bay to Barrie to Eastern Lake Erie by Monday afternoon. The precipitation is expected to begin as a mix of rain, snow and ice pellets before changing over to rain. Further north, precipitation is likely to remain as wet snow. However with the temperatures hovering above freezing, no significant accumulations are expected at this time. In addition, this system will bring in strong north winds, keeping temperatures 7 to 10 degrees below seasonal. Conditions are expected to improve somewhat on Tuesday. The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended. Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca End Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Besides elevation, I think the key for getting accumulating snow in the Toronto city/downtown core will be precip rates and dynamics. Heavier rates with strong dynamics could/will overcome the strong April sun. But if it is weaker, most of the snow will simply melt on contact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 This is amazing. I can't believe I was at a baseball game last night that felt like midsummer, 80 degrees, and two days later my area could potentially be looking at blizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Besides elevation, I think the key for getting accumulating snow in the Toronto city/downtown core will be precip rates and dynamics. Heavier rates with strong dynamics could/will overcome the strong April sun. But if it is weaker, most of the snow will simply melt on contact. From what I'm hearing , dynamics could be very good with this storm as there is a very good chance for TSSN. Also 12z EURO showing 5-8'' for YYZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 I think ENVCA is going to be wrong, way wrong given the potential rates here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 I think ENVCA is going to be wrong, way wrong given the potential rates here. Whats is ENVCA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Whats is ENVCA? Environment Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Whats is ENVCA? Canada's version of the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Environment Canada. Ok should'vce known that lol. Anyway they're probably just playing it safe. Hard to believe NWS buffalo says 4-16'' and EC says zilch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Environment Canada does not see eye to eye. And they are correct wrt lower elevations. Cold, windy and wet on Monday. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==discussion== A low pressure system developing over the gulf of Mexico this afternoon is expected to move up to eastern seaboard, and undergo rapid development on Sunday. This system is expected to track northward and reach Eastern Ontario by Monday evening, then east of James Bay by Tuesday evening. Current indications suggest that precipitation ahead of this low is expected to push north and westward, beginning over areas near the St Lawrence river Sunday overnight. The precipitation will reach areas from Renfrew to Newmarket and the Niagara regions by Monday morning, and then to all the areas from east of Georgian Bay to Barrie to Eastern Lake Erie by Monday afternoon. The precipitation is expected to begin as a mix of rain, snow and ice pellets before changing over to rain. Further north, precipitation is likely to remain as wet snow. However with the temperatures hovering above freezing, no significant accumulations are expected at this time. In addition, this system will bring in strong north winds, keeping temperatures 7 to 10 degrees below seasonal. Conditions are expected to improve somewhat on Tuesday. The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended. Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca End EC is out to lunch common man you know it I know you're trying the anti-jynx but don't worry you're in a pretty sweet spot with this beast!! 18Z NAM is coming in even a bit stronger!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 I will correct myself, I didn't realize Toronto was so stinking low. But still, saying no snow at all seems a bit risky. Even the NAM has near blizzard conditions mid day Monday for a short period. April sun and warm roads will not be sufficient to keep 0.5-1" rates from accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 That higher areas SW of Buffalo looked to get crushed! Good get interesting near the OH/PA border. Also: http://oi43.tinypic.com/2evu4cy.jpg Check out the total qpf! NW flow will be enhancing the snowfall over far western NY, western PA, far NE OH, and northern WV. Looks like some lake enhancement off of Georgian Bay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Pretty impressive for late April, especially after the recent heat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Really sweating this one out on the western edge in northeast Ohio. NAM drills us with 6"+, GFS and Euro narrow misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Impressive to see Upper 20s showing up during the middle of the day in late April! Looks like Buffalo, Toronto will have a good shot at snow, given the snow is coming in towards late afternoon and sticking around through the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Really sweating this one out on the western edge in northeast Ohio. NAM drills us with 6"+, GFS and Euro narrow misses. Really? I am quite content to be on the western fringe looking in. At this time of year I want to be golfing, not shovelling. Golf demo day tomorrow and it will be painfully cold enough.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 21, 2012 Author Share Posted April 21, 2012 Some good ole stat padding for YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 21, 2012 Author Share Posted April 21, 2012 It would be a absolute hoot if this sucker could back west another couple hundred miles. A heavy wet snow event would be interesting around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Brett from accuweather posted on twitter he thinks around 5-10cm for the GTA. I work outside for my summer job, start date was supposed to be monday but my boss has already canned that. Does it look likely that tuesday will be a no go as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 on a side note the pi**ing contest on twitter was/is fun to watch about this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 It would be a absolute hoot if this sucker could back west another couple hundred miles. A heavy wet snow event would be interesting around here. 7 years ago around the time of this storm dropped 16" in Lake Orion. No big deal. Its gone like 5 hrs after the storm is passed. Its a wasted track for BUF and YYZ. The last of the snow fell late Sunday Night. In the Morning i measured peak depth of 11". It was gone by 1 pm. Never seen snow melt so fast in my life and temps were in the low 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Looks like far western NY/NW PA gets crushed by snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 That higher areas SW of Buffalo looked to get crushed! Good get interesting near the OH/PA border. Also: http://oi43.tinypic.com/2evu4cy.jpg Check out the total qpf! NW flow will be enhancing the snowfall over far western NY, western PA, far NE OH, and northern WV. Looks like some lake enhancement off of Georgian Bay! If it shifted only 50 miles west Columbus would get some snow, I actually hope it will not shift this time. Power would be out for a week at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 If it shifted only 50 miles west Columbus would get some snow, I actually hope it will not shift this time. Power would be out for a week at least. You're pretty close to the back edge then. Cleveland is right on edge of this one. Although, the back edge where the precipitation is lighter may be a liquid or a wet snow that doesn't stick well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Really? I am quite content to be on the western fringe looking in. At this time of year I want to be golfing, not shovelling. Golf demo day tomorrow and it will be painfully cold enough.... Hey, winter is my favorite season and as a weather nut, anomalous weather gets me excited. I am about 20 miles east of Cleveland and am at a decent elevation compared to the lakeshore, so if this thing takes the western track I think I can make out well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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