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3/18-22 potential severe weather outbreaks


turtlehurricane

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Sometimes you can see a series of severe weather outbreaks from a mile away, I think this is one of those times (but hopefully I'm wrong). We have incredibly warm and moist air across most of the country east of the Rockies, and the GFS is showing a longwave trough crashing down the west coast over the next 3 days. The longwave's upper-divergent region reaches the plains around 3/18, and is really providing some lift by 3/19. It then continues east without cutting off until 3/22, and is still decent until about 3/23. It goes right through the MO/IL/IN in the latter part of its life.

So basically I'm thinking we could have severe weather outbreaks everyday while this feature is moving through the US. The details I described will likely change, but I think there will be a trough moving east through the plains and Midwest based on the persistence of the GFS, and that's all we need to pull the trigger on all this high energy low-level air.

post-645-0-73917400-1331870354.gif

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I think the bigger story with this will be farther west. Unless something changes it looks like a low end severe threat at best from the MS Valley eastward.

Agreed, this is mostly a plains event. I still expect some minor severe weather outbreaks east of the Mississippi though.

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Agreed, this is mostly a plains event. I still expect some minor severe weather outbreaks east of the Mississippi though.

Agreed. That ridge is looking rather stout for the next week or so. Areas under less of its influence (ring of fire type stuff) may see something.

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:lol: Right? It's kinda a shame too because with this instability we could see some amazing outbreaks. It's just weird to see such weak storm systems and upper level shear in March

For your area maybe yes, but the system in the west is anything but weak...

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652

WFUS51 KILN 182157

TORILN

OHC041-049-182230-

/O.NEW.KILN.TO.W.0018.120318T2157Z-120318T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH

557 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO...

NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO...

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT.

* AT 556 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF

PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

DUBLIN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS

STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

POWELL...

UPPER ARLINGTON...

WORTHINGTON...

MINERVA PARK...

WESTERVILLE...

GAHANNA...

IN ADDITION...RIVERLEA...HUBER RIDGE...CENTER VILLAGE AND NEW ALBANY

ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...

I-71 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 112 AND 124...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A

STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR

OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT

YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES...FUNNEL CLOUDS...STRONG WINDS OR HAIL TO THE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN

YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3995 8278 4005 8318 4021 8315 4016 8276

TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 285DEG 23KT 4012 8310

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
628 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012     

.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON     
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.                
..REMARKS..    

0625 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     COLUMBUS                39.99N 82.99W   
03/18/2012                   FRANKLIN           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER                 

LOCATED NEAR OHIO 161 AND HAMILTON ROAD.  

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Hey guys. I'm a total novice when it comes to meterology but I do have a little bit of an understanding of storm struccture, wall cluds, scul clouds etc. I took some video from my home in powell ohio directly as tornado wanrned cell and area of rotation passed obverhead. I know i saw a wall cloud about 5 minutes earlier verly clearly. I think in my vids it's still a wall clud but then I have trouble understanding if I'm seeing SCUD clouds getting caught in an updraft or the beginings of a funnel. Either way there were some major updrafts. Please let me know what you guys think I saw. If anything. And if this isn't the place for the question please tell me where to move it to. Thanks in advance and I apologize in advance for the F bomb or two in the vids. I was stepping on some rocks!

..click on wheel, bottom right and change quality to high def

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