coyoteweather Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think HM's map makes sense, since the storm will likely trend north and west, although I'd extend the 3-6" into southeastern PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z nam brings precip into the area at hr 84, looks scary how close it is to 6z gfs and 0z euro into the "southern half" of our area....PA Turnpike south; don't forget about our Lehigh Valley folks. Very similar to 6z GFS and Euro runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 into the "southern half" of our area....PA Turnpike south; don't forget about our Lehigh Valley folks. Very similar to 6z GFS and Euro runs. And us NW Jersey folks. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 into the "southern half" of our area....PA Turnpike south; don't forget about our Lehigh Valley folks. Very similar to 6z GFS and Euro runs. lol thats still our area the southern half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It would seem that the SE to NE movement of the L woudl bring more snow into the PA TPK South at this point beyond hour 84, no? NAM/Euro/GFS are scarily close. Slight jog to the NW would be good. SLIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 At least on the 12Z NAM we have a pretty good 50/50 low in position and some blocking to the north of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NAM would be a nice hit with a few tweaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It would seem that the SE to NE movement of the L woudl bring more snow into the PA TPK South at this point beyond hour 84, no? NAM/Euro/GFS are scarily close. Slight jog to the NW would be good. SLIGHT. yea i would imagine it gets into se pa some more...maybe not much further north than a pauls location to new hope line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It would seem that the SE to NE movement of the L woudl bring more snow into the PA TPK South at this point beyond hour 84, no? NAM/Euro/GFS are scarily close. Slight jog to the NW would be good. SLIGHT. From a meteorological perspective yup, there is still good forecast omega in that area. From a reality check, it is the 84hr prog of the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 From a meteorological perspective yup, there is still good forecast omega in that area. From a reality check, it is the 84hr prog of the nam. Good point Ray. I'm extraoplating an extrapolation... Not great science, I presume! I think the only reason it 'semi' works in this instance is its strong agreement with the GFS/Euro. Otherwise, it's something to discuss while the hours tick by... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Good point Ray. I'm extraoplating and extrapolation... Not great science, I presume! I think the only reason it 'semi' works in this instance is its strong agreement with the GFS/Euro. Otherwise, it's something to discuss while the hours tick by... lol thats tony.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 lol thats tony.. Oh man. Sorry Tony. I need more coffee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 At least on the 12Z NAM we have a pretty good 50/50 low in position and some blocking to the north of that. Question for the mets! How strange is it to see a trough out west where we typically want a ridge for an east coast storm? I mean I guess this setup is threading the needle at it's finest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Question for the mets! How strange is it to see a trough out west where we typically want a ridge for an east coast storm? I mean I guess this setup is threading the needle at it's finest! Very strange and it's one of the reasons why I've been favoring the southern solutions. A ridge over MSP usually brings a storm to Bermuda, but these wavelengths are abnormally short for February - which gets to Tony's point about this being a mid-March or even April type pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Oh man. Sorry Tony. I need more coffee. No problem, I've been called alot worse. Other than being on the slow side, yeah the nam track solution is not in outlier territory. BTW I did just run through the NAM forecast soundings at my house off of twister, and it has a lot of dry air from 850mb-700mb. It is the 84hr nam so taking that into account first. On one hand its not good because it will eat the snow, but on the other hand, the BL would not be much of an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Very strange and it's one of the reasons why I've been favoring the southern solutions. A ridge over MSP usually brings a storm to Bermuda, but these wavelengths are abnormally short for February - which gets to Tony's point about this being a mid-March or even April type pattern. So the longwave pattern is relatively short for this trough by mid- February standards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 So the longwave pattern is relatively short for this trough by mid- February standards? Exactly. You'd normally still expect the wavelengths to be a little smaller than the width of the CONUS - which is where the Boise ridge for East Coast snow rule comes from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 No problem, I've been called alot worse. Other than being on the slow side, yeah the nam track solution is not in outlier territory. BTW I did just run through the NAM forecast soundings at my house off of twister, and it has a lot of dry air from 850mb-700mb. It is the 84hr nam so taking that into account first. On one hand its not good because it will eat the snow, but on the other hand, the BL would not be much of an issue. Thanks for understanding. Have tons of respect for you guys...so I don't want to mess up whilst trying to learn! Seems another potential 'element' to a truly 'thread the needle' scenario and shows how much has to go right to make this what we want it... Thanks for the input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 into the "southern half" of our area....PA Turnpike south; don't forget about our Lehigh Valley folks. Very similar to 6z GFS and Euro runs. Thanks Parsley, Many do forget us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Thanks Parsley, Many do forget us this year the southern half has been fogotten where most places are under 2 inches while central to northern areas are in the 4-16 inch range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 BTW I did just run through the NAM forecast soundings at my house off of twister, and it has a lot of dry air from 850mb-700mb. It is the 84hr nam so taking that into account first. On one hand its not good because it will eat the snow, but on the other hand, the BL would not be much of an issue. Thats the problem - most runs with good thermal structure have been dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Thats the problem - most runs with good thermal structure have been dry. What that means they'll be a wall, you just have to hope to be on the right side of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z pretty close to 6z maybe a little further south still decent precip gets into philly about .5 or so...looks to be snow but not sure of bl temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z gfs very similar to 6z. Looks a little cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Quick note - Just checking the 850mb low, it looks to track just south of our area through the duration of the storm. I think this is a case and its still early where we'll start off with rain and then a changeover to snow. 12z pretty close to 6z maybe a little further south still decent precip gets into philly about .5 or so...looks to be snow but not sure of bl temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looks close for Philly might be at least some rain at start south and east mainly rain this run from my point of view. We will have to see what MOS says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If the bl would cooperate, I think some of us would buy the GFS in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 by 84 hrs philly looks to be snow on sounding freezing level is 700 ft with surface temp of 33- 34...burbs would do better obv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Verbatim, south of the turnpike in PA and all of S NJ is 2-4, with 4-8 back towards York and Lancaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z pretty close to 6z maybe a little further south still decent precip gets into philly about .5 or so...looks to be snow but not sure of bl temps Yeah its a bit tough to compare because its about 3-6hrs slower (which also was a nam trend), but its colder and slightly more to the southeast with its overall track. Its forecast sounding is not as dry as the nam between 850mb and 700mb and places with questionable bl conditions would have some rain at the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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