GordoFabulous Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 You would need some serious convective parameters. I think for a true supercell to form it would take much warmer low level temps to initiate an epic updraft. I'm not an expert but I think it would be tuff. Oh, I imagine it would be an absolutely insane, borderline divinely inspired, set up. I would imagine something along the lines of a late-season tropical storm slamming into an early-season arctic air mass or at least an abnormally moist gulf connection hooking into a piece of the polar vortex. Regardless, it would be a bad day for everyone in line, but something to behold from a meterological standpoint (as most extreme weather event are). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 This is quite epic... sorry, its a bit clunky on the size of the animation. this run really showing a strong widespread damaging wind/QLCS event. EDIT: I also apologize for the lack of time stamps on this. I should fix that. The line traverses Indiana from 5-9z. Zippy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 00z NAM has better instability farther north. Now has a tongue of a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE into the south side of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 00z NAM has better instability farther north. Now has a tongue of a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE into the south side of Chicago. Sfc low stronger and further south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 00z NAM has better instability farther north. Now has a tongue of a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE into the south side of Chicago. Hoosier...I think that squall line is going to go pretty far north. This will be one of those lines that reaches from the southern states all the way into Southern Michigan potentially.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 Hoosier...I think that squall line is going to go pretty far north. This will be one of those lines that reaches from the southern states all the way into Southern Michigan potentially.... Looks that way given the forcing along the front. Of course the intensity becomes more of a question the farther north you go. Lots to consider. What is the elevated instability like farther north? What will the boundary layer be like in areas that currently have significant snowcover? How much of a low level inversion might there be to reduce the chances of damaging gusts making it to the surface? Will be curious to see how SPC plays this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Is there a chance that the cold air could catch up with the back edge of the squall line? Would it then be a severe thunder snow squall? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 Hodographs develop a kinked look per NAM which could hurt the tor threat some despite the shear being otherwise favorable. Have to see if it still looks like that tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 pretty large difference on the 0z GFS compared to 18z. New run with the sfc low further south in northeast KS at 21hr where the 18z run had it in western IA. The wave also looks sharper this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 This isn't over hype at all.. But this is some real **** here. The wind potential with these squall lines is off the charts. Screaming wind parameter. I would suspect during the event the headline products will be lighting up the map like a ****ing Christmas tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 From the 00z nam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The snow pack is going to make for a nightmare scenario forecasting the exact placement of convective features. Gonna be Loling watching the WRFs and Hi Res play ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Obviously you'll have to do some imagining with this image, but the 0z RGEM at 5z Monday. Link to maps, of course usually for winter precipitation types: http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 0z SPC WRF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Judging by the 18z NAM run it appears that wind damage may be possible into Southwestern Ontario/Western New York even without convetive properties along the cold front, the line of rain may be able to bring down the strong 60-70kt winds at 3000-5000ft causing some damaging wind gusts along the front, could be like what happened on tueday for my area/Western New York. Now doubt a signifcant QCLS wind threat for tomorrow night/monday morning in the Ohio valley toward the mid south. Now looking, 0Z Nam shows much of the same, although the NAM in general could be a touch fast. If we do get damaging wind potential in Southern Ontario on Monday, I bet Environment Canada will issue a wind warning for a couple of hours rather than severe thunderstorm warning, we will see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 This is more like a mid fall system. Power outages galore. The juice is on tap also. The southerly flow looks healthy and fueled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 Wouldn't be surprised if SPC pulls the trigger on a moderate risk, especially from KY southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Wouldn't be surprised if SPC pulls the trigger on a moderate risk, especially from KY southward. just checking over a few soundings, i would fully agree with that. i'd go from around the EVV/SDF areas and on south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 just checking over a few soundings, i would fully agree with that. i'd go from around the EVV/SDF areas and on south. Any thoughts on the northern extent of the severe potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Wouldn't be surprised if SPC pulls the trigger on a moderate risk, especially from KY southward. KY down into TN look like prime areas for a potential mod risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Any thoughts on the northern extent of the severe potential? I can see potential into northern IN but that may depend a lot on instability/any BL effects snowpack may have that far north. But, strong forcing could help overcome any negatives.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I can't think of recent events to try and get an analogue for what effects, if any, snow pack may have on how mesoscale features play out tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 just checking over a few soundings, i would fully agree with that. i'd go from around the EVV/SDF areas and on south. Agree, There could be a very significant damaging wind outbreak for the Middle MS Valley and into TN/KY. BTW with respect to the snow pack, you have all day tomorrow before the line arrive and looking at the LLJ/moisture transport that is progged to move into the region the snow pack will melt very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 I can't think of recent events to try and get an analogue for what effects, if any, snow pack may have on how mesoscale features play out tomorrow night. Was just thinking that. To say there is uncertainty in these parts and northward is an understatement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Was just thinking that. To say there is uncertainty in these parts and northward is an understatement. These winter events always overperform and they always end up producing farther North than expected. I'll go out on a limb and say I wouldn't be surprised to see severe storms all the way into Northern Indiana and Northwestern Ohio. Should be a pretty significant QLCS stretching from Northern Indiana through AL/MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I can't think of recent events to try and get an analogue for what effects, if any, snow pack may have on how mesoscale features play out tomorrow night. January 7th 2008 parts of Michigan had snow on the ground that melted the day of the event. Just as a point of reference, that being said I don't see is hitting 60 tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Any thoughts on the northern extent of the severe potential? i wouldn't at all be surprised to see it extend up to around the MI border area. decent amounts of mlcape, good forcing...and winds of 50kts at 950mb and 70kts at 900mb(GFS). the only two concerns i would have would be...how long and how far north will the QLCS be sustained and low level inversion issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 January 7th 2008 parts of Michigan had snow on the ground that melted the day of the event. Just as a point of reference, that being said I don't see is hitting 60 tomorrow... Yeah, us further south I'm betting will lose the bulk of the snowpack before nightfall. I'd be curious how the snow would effect storms directly on top of it. Guess it would depend on how the warm LLJ is mixing down to combat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 i wouldn't at all be surprised to see it extend up to around the MI border area. decent amounts of mlcape, good forcing...and winds of 50kts at 950mb and 70kts at 900mb(GFS). the only two concerns i would have would be...how long and how far north will the QCLS be sustained and low level inversion issues. Couldn't have said it better myself. Agree 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 Here are snow depths as of 12z Saturday. We can assume that not much was lost today and not much will be lost through Sunday morning. After that we will see melting accelerate from south to north but seems likely that some of this will still be in tact through tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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