2012 Global Temperatures

[LakeEffectKing]

UAH for April is in....anomoly increase from March, in line with RSS:

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS

2011 01 -0.010 -0.055 +0.036 -0.372

2011 02 -0.020 -0.042 +0.002 -0.348

2011 03 -0.101 -0.073 -0.128 -0.342

2011 04 +0.117 +0.195 +0.039 -0.229

2011 05 +0.133 +0.145 +0.121 -0.043

2011 06 +0.315 +0.379 +0.250 +0.233

2011 07 +0.374 +0.344 +0.404 +0.204

2011 08 +0.327 +0.321 +0.332 +0.155

2011 09 +0.289 +0.304 +0.274 +0.178

2011 10 +0.116 +0.169 +0.062 -0.054

2011 11 +0.123 +0.075 +0.170 +0.024

2011 12 +0.126 +0.197 +0.055 +0.041

2012 01 -0.090 -0.057 -0.123 -0.138

2012 02 -0.112 -0.013 -0.212 -0.277

2012 03 +0.110 +0.129 +0.092 -0.108

2012 04 +0.295 +0.411 +0.179 -0.120

[The_Global_Warmer]

UAH for April is in....anomoly increase from March, in line with RSS:

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS

2011 01 -0.010 -0.055 +0.036 -0.372

2011 02 -0.020 -0.042 +0.002 -0.348

2011 03 -0.101 -0.073 -0.128 -0.342

2011 04 +0.117 +0.195 +0.039 -0.229

2011 05 +0.133 +0.145 +0.121 -0.043

2011 06 +0.315 +0.379 +0.250 +0.233

2011 07 +0.374 +0.344 +0.404 +0.204

2011 08 +0.327 +0.321 +0.332 +0.155

2011 09 +0.289 +0.304 +0.274 +0.178

2011 10 +0.116 +0.169 +0.062 -0.054

2011 11 +0.123 +0.075 +0.170 +0.024

2011 12 +0.126 +0.197 +0.055 +0.041

2012 01 -0.090 -0.057 -0.123 -0.138

2012 02 -0.112 -0.013 -0.212 -0.277

2012 03 +0.110 +0.129 +0.092 -0.108

2012 04 +0.295 +0.411 +0.179 -0.120

Lol, not good for the temp contest.

Quick math says 0.100C+ now.

I think the average was .13C.

[Jonger]

UAH for April is in....anomoly increase from March, in line with RSS:

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS

2011 01 -0.010 -0.055 +0.036 -0.372

2011 02 -0.020 -0.042 +0.002 -0.348

2011 03 -0.101 -0.073 -0.128 -0.342

2011 04 +0.117 +0.195 +0.039 -0.229

2011 05 +0.133 +0.145 +0.121 -0.043

2011 06 +0.315 +0.379 +0.250 +0.233

2011 07 +0.374 +0.344 +0.404 +0.204

2011 08 +0.327 +0.321 +0.332 +0.155

2011 09 +0.289 +0.304 +0.274 +0.178

2011 10 +0.116 +0.169 +0.062 -0.054

2011 11 +0.123 +0.075 +0.170 +0.024

2011 12 +0.126 +0.197 +0.055 +0.041

2012 01 -0.090 -0.057 -0.123 -0.138

2012 02 -0.112 -0.013 -0.212 -0.277

2012 03 +0.110 +0.129 +0.092 -0.108

2012 04 +0.295 +0.411 +0.179 -0.120

Are these figures increases in temp or anomaly comparative to 30 year average?

[The_Global_Warmer]

Are these figures increases in temp or anomaly comparative to 30 year average?

They are UAH TLT anomalies. Its an average of the lower 10 kilomete of the atmosphere weighted towards the surface. With the 1981-2010 UAH as climo.

Giss uses 1950-1981 as climo. So UAH wont be as dramatic with the anomalys.

[The_Global_Warmer]

AMSU Channel 5 temps have started to decline again, and it looks as if we will quickly slip below 2003 levels.

Analysis of u-wind anomalies shows another increase in the trades approaching, so this may prevent El Niño warmth from reaching the globe too quickly:

good call.

[Jesse]

_{Any update on temps?}

_{We're 2/3 through May now.}

[Jesse]

Well since Friv isn't in here frothing at the mouth about warming temperatures and his own personal AGW-related fantasies I'm gonna go ahead and assume temps have been flat or dropped.

[FloridaJohn]

Well, there's always this:

And this:

And this:

[PhillipS]

Well since Friv isn't in here frothing at the mouth about warming temperatures and his own personal AGW-related fantasies I'm gonna go ahead and assume temps have been flat or dropped.

That would be a very poor assumption on your part. Here is the current UAH temperature plot:

As I'm sure you can see, the temperature anomaly has risen back up to 0.30 C. (interestingly, the monthly global anomaly reached 0.3 C for the first time in the UAH record in 1998 and now that temp isn't unusual at all - one could almost think the Earth was warming.)

Similarly, from Jeff Master's Wunderblog:

April 2012 was the globe's 5th warmest April on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's

National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

NASA rated April 2012 as the

4th warmest April on record.

April 2012 global land temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and the Northern Hemisphere land surface temperature was 1.74°C (3.13°F) above the 20th century average, marking the warmest April since records began in 1880. Global ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record, and April 2012 was the 427th consecutive month with ocean temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time the ocean temperatures were below average was September 1976.

If you deny the reality of AGW, you are the one living in a fantasy, not Friv.

[SVT450R]

UAH is in for May at +0.29

[GaWx]

And this:

Note the pretty steady cooling from 1880 to 1910. During the period 1875-1915, the sun was fairly quiet sunspotwise vs. the post-Dalton 1835-1875 years. Could the period of global cooling from 1880 through 1910 have largely been an infuence of the then quieter sun? Also, note that there was solid warming 1978-2000. Well, during that time there were three strong sun cylces that had followed a fairly weak sun period from the early 60's to the late 70's. Note the lack of sustained warming during the 1960's and most of the 1970's. This is all just food for thought. I feel that the sun's cyclical influence deserves a seat at the table when discussing the degree of warming from AGW, especially since we may very well be in the quietest sun period in at least 100 years or so. I maintain that there is still a lot unknown with regard to the degree of the sun's influence on global temp.'s. Even the very well respected "WeatherRusty" has admitted in this forum that it is tough to quantify the influence of the cosmic ray cycle on global temp.'s as a result of the supposed increase in the amount of supposedly cooling induced low clouds associated with increased cosmic rays, which result from a quieter sun. (I know that a recent reading seemed to indicate a sig. drop in low cloud cover, which would be counterintuitive being that we're now in a high quantity cosmic ray cycle. I don't know what to make of that.)

IF the sun remains in a relatively quiet phase between now and 2025-3030 like a good number of scientists expect and IF there is a rather distinct trend of global cooling between now and 2030, I'd think that the degree of the sun's influence would raise more and more eyebrows. We'll see. I don't think there's really a question about whether there is AGW. However, I do think that there is a big Q about the % of warming during 1915-2000 that really can be attributed to AGW vs. the more active sun then. The higher the % influence from the sun, the more the cooling potential in the next 20 or so years assuming a continued relatively quiet sun.

(Aside: I currently expect the current sunspot cycle to peak in 2013-4 based on past cycle patterns. Then I'll be looking for the potential of a very low min. during ~2017-21 quite possibly followed by another weak cycle, which would take us to ~2030.)

[The_Global_Warmer]

AMSU Channel 5 temps now trying to warp past 2010. Virtually tied. No cooling and the tropics are still not the cause, an El Nino will vault 2012 well into the top spot.

[The_Global_Warmer]

2012 takes over 2010 on this date for top spot. With the developing Nino and huge snow and ice cover departures, I would expect 2012 to continue to warm up and run with or above 2010, if Nino becomes decent then expect 2012 to stay at the top for a while.

[nzucker]

2012 takes over 2010 on this date for top spot. With the developing Nino and huge snow and ice cover departures, I would expect 2012 to continue to warm up and run with or above 2010, if Nino becomes decent then expect 2012 to stay at the top for a while.

I don't think snow and ice cover departures have a significant impact at that level of the troposphere. Channel 5 temperatures tend to vary quite wildly so I wouldn't make too much of the uptick, except to say that SSTs both globally and in the ENSO regions have been rapidly increasing so I'm not surprised.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I don't think snow and ice cover departures have a significant impact at that level of the troposphere. Channel 5 temperatures tend to vary quite wildly so I wouldn't make too much of the uptick, except to say that SSTs both globally and in the ENSO regions have been rapidly increasing so I'm not surprised.

Except these are at record warm levels without the powerful Nino's.

It's more proof of GHG forcing.

[The_Global_Warmer]

[donsutherland1]

After four months, 2012 is running barely cooler than 2011 in terms of global anomalies:

GISS:

2011: +0.490°C

2012: +0.438°C

NCDC:

2011: +0.754°C

2012: +0.742°C

With ENSO conditions having warmed to neutral in May and a possibly emergent El Niño event underway, it remains likely that 2012's readings will eclipse 2011's.

[GaWx]

After four months, 2012 is running barely cooler than 2011 in terms of global anomalies:

GISS:

2011: +0.490°C

2012: +0.438°C

NCDC:

2011: +0.754°C

2012: +0.742°C

With ENSO conditions having warmed to neutral in May and a possibly emergent El Niño event underway, it remains likely that 2012's readings will eclipse 2011's.

Don,

Going with the idea of warming with an emerging El Nino is intuitive. However, please keep in mind that there are a good number of examples of the year of an emergent Nino not being warmer than the prior year, especially when said Nino is weak. Example: 1976 was ~0.2F cooler than 1975 globally per the year by year chart posted earlier in this thread (the one about which I responded). Moreover, keep in mind that the weak 1976-7 El Nino had followed an essentially three year La Nina. Especially since a weak Nino is very much in play as a possibility, I feel that past weak El Nino's following La Nina's should be considered.

Edit: 1972 and 1957 were both years of emerging El Nino's that followed two year long La Nina's and they were, indeed, warmer than the prior year (~0.3 F and ~0.5 F, respectively). However, they were both strong El Nino's. Then again, 1951 saw an emergent weak El Nino that followed a two year long La Nina and was, indeed, warmer by ~0.2 F. However, as you will see, it turns out to be the only weak El Nino emergent year following a La Nina that was warmer.

1939 saw an emerging weak Nino that followed a one year long weak La Nina and it was actually ~0.4 F cooler than 1938. 1925 saw an emerging strong El Nino that followed a one year long weak La Nina and it was, indeed, ~0.25 F warmer than 1924. 1911 saw an emerging weak El Nino that followed a three year long La Nina and was actually ~0.25 F cooler than 1910. 1904 saw an emerging weak El Nino that followed a one year long weak La Nina and was actually ~0.25 F cooler than 1903. 1899 saw an emerging strong El Nino that followed a two year long weak La Nina and it was, indeed, ~0.3 F warmer than 1898.

Edit: Summary of the above: (covers years since late 1800's)

5 Weak El Nino emerging cal. years following La Nina: avg. 0.18 F cooler than preceding year (4 of 5 cooler)

4 Strong El Nino emerging cal. years following La Nina: avg. 0.35 F warmer than preceding year (4 of 4 warmer)

9 El Nino emerging cal. years following La Nina: avg. 0.05 F warmer than preceding year

Strength of El Nino may trump whether or not the preceding La Nina was multiyear since two of the three weak El Nino emerging years that followed multiyear La Nina's were still actually cooler.

Conclusion: With 2012-13 quite possibly being a weak El Nino and based on the historical stats, I'd be hesitant to consider the chance of 2012 being warmer than 2011 as "likely" merely on the assumption of an emerging El Nino for 2012-3.

[LakeEffectKing]

Don,

Going with the idea of warming with an emerging El Nino is intuitive. However, please keep in mind that there are a good number of examples of the year of an emergent Nino not being warmer than the prior year, especially when said Nino is weak. Example: 1976 was ~0.2F cooler than 1975 globally per the year by year chart posted earlier in this thread (the one about which I responded). Moreover, keep in mind that the weak 1976-7 El Nino had followed an essentially three year La Nina. Especially since a weak Nino is very much in play as a possibility, I feel that past weak El Nino's following La Nina's should be considered.

Edit: 1972 and 1957 were both years of emerging El Nino's that followed two year long La Nina's and they were, indeed, warmer than the prior year (~0.3 F and ~0.5 F, respectively). However, they were both strong El Nino's. Then again, 1951 saw an emergent weak El Nino that followed a two year long La Nina and was, indeed, warmer by ~0.2 F. However, as you will see, it turns out to be the only weak El Nino emergent year following a La Nina that was warmer.

1939 saw an emerging weak Nino that followed a one year long weak La Nina and it was actually ~0.4 F cooler than 1938. 1925 saw an emerging strong El Nino that followed a one year long weak La Nina and it was, indeed, ~0.25 F warmer than 1924. 1911 saw an emerging weak El Nino that followed a three year long La Nina and was actually ~0.25 F cooler than 1910. 1904 saw an emerging weak El Nino that followed a one year long weak La Nina and was actually ~0.25 F cooler than 1903. 1899 saw an emerging strong El Nino that followed a two year long weak La Nina and it was, indeed, ~0.3 F warmer than 1924.

Edit: Summary of the above: (covers years since late 1800's)

5 Weak El Nino emerging cal. years following La Nina: avg. 0.18 F cooler than preceding year (4 of 5 cooler)

4 Strong El Nino emerging cal. years following La Nina: avg. 0.35 F warmer than preceding year (4 of 4 warmer)

9 El Nino emerging cal. years following La Nina: avg. 0.05 F warmer than preceding year

Strength of El Nino may trump whether or not the preceding La Nina was multiyear since two of the three weak El Nino emerging years that followed multiyear La Nina's were still actually cooler.

Conclusion: With 2012-13 quite possibly being a weak El Nino and based on the historical stats, I'd be hesitant to consider the chance of 2012 being warmer than 2011 as "likely" merely on the assumption of an emerging El Nino for 2012-3.

Great information, however, Don's opinion may hold a bit more weight that what your well laid out stats show....and that is that the two years (2012 and 2011) are almost equal (at this point, June) and last year we were fading back into a La Nina, where as even if an El Nino were to present itself as weak going forward, I'd qualify the chances of 2012 being higher than 2011 as "likely" also....IMO.

It'd be interesting to see if you could break down your statistics into monthly numbers, so we could more accurately constrain your analogs.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Just looking at the first 10 days of AMSU channel 5 data its obvious that June of 2012 is going,to be a large anomaly. The next 10 days shows the cold staying in the arctic circle. Land regions will torch.

If Nino stays between a 1.0 & 1.5 mei then we should be warmer than 2010 this summer.

[The_Global_Warmer]

And this is with global ssts not at record levels. Hence more land based torching.

[Jesse]

Just looking at the first 10 days of AMSU channel 5 data its obvious that June of 2012 is going,to be a large anomaly. The next 10 days shows the cold staying in the arctic circle. Land regions will torch.

If Nino stays between a 1.0 & 1.5 mei then we should be warmer than 2010 this summer.

I thought the arctic,was supposed to torch over the next ten days?

[Jonger]

I thought the arctic,was supposed to torch over the next ten days?

Jon

[donsutherland1]

Don,

Going with the idea of warming with an emerging El Nino is intuitive. However, please keep in mind that there are a good number of examples of the year of an emergent Nino not being warmer than the prior year, especially when said Nino is weak. Example: 1976 was ~0.2F cooler than 1975 globally per the year by year chart posted earlier in this thread (the one about which I responded). Moreover, keep in mind that the weak 1976-7 El Nino had followed an essentially three year La Nina. Especially since a weak Nino is very much in play as a possibility, I feel that past weak El Nino's following La Nina's should be considered.

I agree and qualified my language in probabilistic terms. However, it should be noted that the warming in ENSO Region 3.4 has been running about 2 months ahead of that in 1976. May 2012's anomaly of -0.05°C was barely cooler than the July 1976 figure of -0.01°C. 1976 did not have a positive monthly anomaly until August. If the weekly numbers, which have been running near normal and the modeling are reasonable, one might see the first positive monthly anomaly this month. At the same time, the 2012 global temperature anomaly is approaching the 2011 anomaly for the comparable period. It could be even closer in May (perhaps a shade warmer on the NCDC dataset). In 2011, the monthly ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly peaked at -0.18°C in June (3-month average peaked at -0.29° in July) before turning downward.

Below is a chart showing the 3-month moving average ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies for 1976, 2011, and 2012:

[GaWx]

Great information, however, Don's opinion may hold a bit more weight that what your well laid out stats show....and that is that the two years (2012 and 2011) are almost equal (at this point, June) and last year we were fading back into a La Nina, where as even if an El Nino were to present itself as weak going forward, I'd qualify the chances of 2012 being higher than 2011 as "likely" also....IMO.

It'd be interesting to see if you could break down your statistics into monthly numbers, so we could more accurately constrain your analogs.

LEK,

Thanks. I just found a land-sea monthly anomaly table here:

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/anomalies/monthly.land_ocean.90S.90N.df_1901-2000mean.dat

A: I compared Jan.-Apr. for the five pairs of years in degrees C (current and four analogs of emerging weak Nino following Nina that were cooler):

2011: +0.48; 2012: +0.45; 2012-2011 = -0.03

1975: +0.08; 1976: -0.12; 1976-1975 = -0.20

1938: +0.12; 1939: -0.03; 1939-1938 = -0.15

1910: -0.38; 1911: -0.53; 1911-1910 = -0.15

1903: -0.21; 1904: -0.49; 1904-1903 = -0.28

This shows that while 2012 is only barely cooler than 2011 through April (by .03 C), the four analogs' emerging Nino years were all cooler by a range of a much greater (%wise) of .15 to .28 C. So, this, alone, tells me that those four analogs were, indeed, in a much better position as of April to allow for the entire emerging Nino year to average cooler than the preceding year (a much bigger headstart if you will). Also, the end of year, especially Dec., was where the warmest monthly comparisons for the emerging nino year were by far. So, this, alone, admittedly does give decent support for Don and yourself to declare 2012 to likely be warmer than 2011.

B: OTOH, 2011 was different from the four analogs in that Oct.-Dec. actually averaged a hair warmer (0.01) than Jan.-April. In comparison, 1975's Oct.-Dec. averaged 0.21 cooler than its Jan.-Apr.; 1938's Oct.-Dec. averaged 0.05 cooler than its Jan.-Apr.; 1910's Oct.-Dec. averaged 0.11 cooler than its Jan.-Apr.; and 1903's Oct.-Dec. averaged 0.25 cooler than its Jan.-Apr. So, it would appear that the typical Oct.-Dec. "advantage" for the emerging Nino year to be warmer isn't there for 2012 like it was for the analogs.

Conclusion: "A" says to go with Don/LEK and go with likely. "B" says maybe not. The analogs had seemed to suggest a somewhat less than 50% chance for 2012 to be warmer. Based on "A" and "B", I'm now going to split the difference and defer to Don/LEK partially and say there's about a 50% chance for 2012 to be warmer than 2011. This will be fun to follow.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Can you post where I said the arctic would torch from the 12th to 21st.

Jon

[LakeEffectKing]

LEK,

Thanks. I just found a land-sea monthly anomaly table here:

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/anomalies/monthly.land_ocean.90S.90N.df_1901-2000mean.dat

A: I compared Jan.-Apr. for the five pairs of years in degrees C (current and four analogs of emerging weak Nino following Nina that were cooler):

2011: +0.48; 2012: +0.45; 2012-2011 = -0.03

1975: +0.08; 1976: -0.12; 1976-1975 = -0.20

1938: +0.12; 1939: -0.03; 1939-1938 = -0.15

1910: -0.38; 1911: -0.53; 1911-1910 = -0.15

1903: -0.21; 1904: -0.49; 1904-1903 = -0.28

This shows that while 2012 is only barely cooler than 2011 through April (by .03 C), the four analogs' emerging Nino years were all cooler by a range of a much greater (%wise) of .15 to .28 C. So, this, alone, tells me that those four analogs were, indeed, in a much better position as of April to allow for the entire emerging Nino year to average cooler than the preceding year (a much bigger headstart if you will). Also, the end of year, especially Dec., was where the warmest monthly comparisons for the emerging nino year were by far. So, this, alone, admittedly does give decent support for Don and yourself to declare 2012 to likely be warmer than 2011.

B: OTOH, 2011 was different from the four analogs in that Oct.-Dec. actually averaged a hair warmer (0.01) than Jan.-April. In comparison, 1975's Oct.-Dec. averaged 0.21 cooler than its Jan.-Apr.; 1938's Oct.-Dec. averaged 0.05 cooler than its Jan.-Apr.; 1910's Oct.-Dec. averaged 0.11 cooler than its Jan.-Apr.; and 1903's Oct.-Dec. averaged 0.25 cooler than its Jan.-Apr. So, it would appear that the typical Oct.-Dec. "advantage" for the emerging Nino year to be warmer isn't there for 2012 like it was for the analogs.

Conclusion: "A" says to go with Don/LEK and go with likely. "B" says maybe not. The analogs had seemed to suggest a somewhat less than 50% chance for 2012 to be warmer. Based on "A" and "B", I'm now going to split the difference and defer to Don/LEK partially and say there's about a 50% chance for 2012 to be warmer than 2011. This will be fun to follow.

Good stuff Larry. Thanks a bunch.

[skierinvermont]

LEK,

Thanks. I just found a land-sea monthly anomaly table here:

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/anomalies/monthly.land_ocean.90S.90N.df_1901-2000mean.dat

A: I compared Jan.-Apr. for the five pairs of years in degrees C (current and four analogs of emerging weak Nino following Nina that were cooler):

2011: +0.48; 2012: +0.45; 2012-2011 = -0.03

1975: +0.08; 1976: -0.12; 1976-1975 = -0.20

1938: +0.12; 1939: -0.03; 1939-1938 = -0.15

1910: -0.38; 1911: -0.53; 1911-1910 = -0.15

1903: -0.21; 1904: -0.49; 1904-1903 = -0.28

This shows that while 2012 is only barely cooler than 2011 through April (by .03 C), the four analogs' emerging Nino years were all cooler by a range of a much greater (%wise) of .15 to .28 C. So, this, alone, tells me that those four analogs were, indeed, in a much better position as of April to allow for the entire emerging Nino year to average cooler than the preceding year (a much bigger headstart if you will). Also, the end of year, especially Dec., was where the warmest monthly comparisons for the emerging nino year were by far. So, this, alone, admittedly does give decent support for Don and yourself to declare 2012 to likely be warmer than 2011.

B: OTOH, 2011 was different from the four analogs in that Oct.-Dec. actually averaged a hair warmer (0.01) than Jan.-April. In comparison, 1975's Oct.-Dec. averaged 0.21 cooler than its Jan.-Apr.; 1938's Oct.-Dec. averaged 0.05 cooler than its Jan.-Apr.; 1910's Oct.-Dec. averaged 0.11 cooler than its Jan.-Apr.; and 1903's Oct.-Dec. averaged 0.25 cooler than its Jan.-Apr. So, it would appear that the typical Oct.-Dec. "advantage" for the emerging Nino year to be warmer isn't there for 2012 like it was for the analogs.

Conclusion: "A" says to go with Don/LEK and go with likely. "B" says maybe not. The analogs had seemed to suggest a somewhat less than 50% chance for 2012 to be warmer. Based on "A" and "B", I'm now going to split the difference and defer to Don/LEK partially and say there's about a 50% chance for 2012 to be warmer than 2011. This will be fun to follow.

Reason B is clearly subordinate to reason A. Reason B is a subset of reason A. Reason B simply implies that Oct-Dec 2011 was exceptionally warm compared to the rest of the year and that other portions of the 'Nina year' were much colder.

1976 is also a horrible analog because even though it eventually rose to weak Nino status by late in the year, the year began at nearly -2 on the ONI. Considering the 4 month lag from the ONI to surface temperatures, that makes it a solidly La Nina year and not a 'weak Nino' year. There is absolutely no comparison between the September 1975 to Apirl 1976 ONI and the September 2011 to April 2012 ONI. The 4 month lagged ONI in 1976 will likely be at least .5C cooler than 2012 will be.

[GaWx]

Reason B is clearly subordinate to reason A. Reason B is a subset of reason A. Reason B simply implies that Oct-Dec 2011 was exceptionally warm compared to the rest of the year and that other portions of the 'Nina year' were much colder.

1976 is also a horrible analog because even though it eventually rose to weak Nino status by late in the year, the year began at nearly -2 on the ONI. Considering the 4 month lag from the ONI to surface temperatures, that makes it a solidly La Nina year and not a 'weak Nino' year. There is absolutely no comparison between the September 1975 to Apirl 1976 ONI and the September 2011 to April 2012 ONI. The 4 month lagged ONI in 1976 will likely be at least .5C cooler than 2012 will be.

skier,

1) After thinking about it more, I think you're right and that Reasons A and B are largely not independent of each other being that the early part of the emerging Nino year follows immediately after the late part of the Nina year. In other words, the relative warmth of late 2011 carried over to early 2012 to some extent and helped early 2012 to almost keep up with the warmth of early 2011. I shouldn't have treated them as two independent items. Regardless, the relative warmth of late 2011, which carried over to early 2012 and allowed it to nearly keep up with early 2011, will also make it more difficult than most past analogs to exceed late in the year. So, I'd say that my general thinking is not changed. I'm still going with about a 50-50 chance of 2012 as a whole being warmer than 2011 as a whole for now.

2) I see what you're saying about the difference if you assume a four month lag. From where are you getting the idea of a four month lag from ONI to surface temp.'s?

[skierinvermont]

skier,

1) After thinking about it more, I think you're right and that Reasons A and B are largely not independent of each other being that the early part of the emerging Nino year follows immediately after the late part of the Nina year. In other words, the relative warmth of late 2011 carried over to early 2012 to some extent and helped early 2012 to almost keep up with the warmth of early 2011. I shouldn't have treated them as two independent items. Regardless, the relative warmth of late 2011, which carried over to early 2012 and allowed it to nearly keep up with early 2011, will also make it more difficult than most past analogs to exceed late in the year. So, I'd say that my general thinking is not changed. I'm still going with about a 50-50 chance of 2012 as a whole being warmer than 2011 as a whole for now.

2) I see what you're saying about the difference if you assume a four month lag. From where are you getting the idea of a four month lag from ONI to surface temp.'s?

Yes that's what I'm saying - A and B are not independent. Well put.

1) You claim that the relative warmth of 2011 carried over into 2012 and therefore will be difficult to exceed. However, the relative warmth of 2011 didn't carry over. While late 2011 was most definitely some kind of warm short-term blip, the early 2012 temperatures are not a short term warm blip. Instead of warming, as one might expect based on history, early 2012 temperatures stayed the same as late 2011. This should make the early 2012 temperatures easy to exceed later in the year.

2) Run a correlation between the ONI and surface temperatures.. the best correlation occurs at a 4 month lag. I've run such correlations in the past and posted them on this forum, and you can find people finding the same thing on well known blogs and in peer-reviewed publications. I can't show it right now because I'm currently hiking the Appalachian Trail and have limied internet, but I've been doing this for a while and a 3-4 month lag is what I remember. It also makes physical sense.

I would put the odds of 2012 being warmer than 2011 at least 80 or 90%.