andyhb Posted May 8, 2012 Author Share Posted May 8, 2012 Well my guess could be well overestimated if the pattern doesn't change here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Well my guess could be well overestimated if the pattern doesn't change here... Probably... patterns don't change between May and August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 8, 2012 Author Share Posted May 8, 2012 Probably... patterns don't change between May and August. Uh, I meant through May, which is climatologically the peak month for tornadoes (which the current pattern for the next week or more does not support very well). I guessed 1375, which with the pattern we are currently in, seems a bit high at this point, unless June comes up big and/or the Summer (which if the ridge does hold strong like the past however many months, seems a bit unlikely, although I'm a little doubtful of another torch) or Fall (Which some of the analog/similar patterns from years past have had active seasons, 2007 and to a certain extent, 2009, for example). That wasn't meant to draw a sarcastic remark like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 8, 2012 Author Share Posted June 8, 2012 Pretty stark contrast to last year... MAY 2012 WAS THE FIRST MAY IN 7 YEARS WITH NO FATALITIES. THE LASTMAY WITH NO TORNADO FATALITIES OCCURRED IN 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 There have been 495 tornadoes confirmed through April. Last year we had 912 through April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 This year is pretty much going exactly as expected in turns of patterns, timing, etc. The one thing I didn't foresee was moisture being in short supply with a lot of March-April systems. That was due to unfavorable subtropical ridge placement (too far west). Otherwise, the worst events were early and largely centered on the OV region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 2, 2012 Author Share Posted August 2, 2012 Only 12 confirmed tornadoes in July, low activity continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 I don't think we'll see above 1100 tornadoes anymore, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 2, 2012 Author Share Posted August 2, 2012 Less than 1000 is actually looking rather achievable at this point, although we still have the Fall season to get through obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Only 12 reports of tornadoes in July, low activity continues. Not that it makes a huge difference but I see 24 on the SPC website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 2, 2012 Author Share Posted August 2, 2012 Not that it makes a huge difference but I see 24 on the SPC website. Meant to say 12 confirmed tornadoes I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Taking 80-85% of prelim reports, we are probably somewhere between 725-750 tornadoes so far this year. The running 3 year avg for Sep-Dec is 177 so an average finish (plus the remainder of August) would put the total around the mid 900s. A sub 1000 season can't be written off, but a big outbreak or two may be enough to put it over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 724 confirmed through June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 This year's Jan-Jun tornado count is less than that of Apr 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/torn/fataltorn.html 68 Tornado deaths, only 11 after March 2nd and 0 in May! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin wx Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 I don't think I had even one tornado warning issued this year! It was an extremely boring summer as far as severe weather goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 23, 2012 Author Share Posted September 23, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa..../fataltorn.html 68 Tornado deaths, only 11 after March 2nd and 0 in May! Still the fourth deadliest year since 2000, due to the Leap Day and 3/2 events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 762 through July. July actually had more confirmed than prelim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 762 through July. July actually had more confirmed than prelim. Not that surprising given how low the number was. Plus they seem to miss waterspouts that come ashore etc quite often in reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 802 through August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Over/under 1000? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 9, 2012 Author Share Posted November 9, 2012 Over/under 1000? Might be somewhere right around 1000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Over/under 1000? Under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 We'll see. I think we'll be right in the 1000-1050 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 13, 2012 Author Share Posted November 13, 2012 Also, slightly off-topic, this video of the Columbus, NE tornado from June 23rd, 1998 finally got posted. One of the best from this time period and one of the more frightening looking tornadoes caught on video, IMO. The motion and the roar of the thing is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 13, 2012 Author Share Posted November 13, 2012 Here's another one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 19, 2012 Author Share Posted November 19, 2012 http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk/?n=svr2012.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 27, 2012 Author Share Posted November 27, 2012 Well I know the thread subtitle for next year will be "Following a very quiet year." As of November 25, 2012 ranks as the quietest year for tornadoes in the United States, with an estimated 885 tornadoes, below the previous record minimum for that point in the year of 920 tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 839 confirmed through Sept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 31, 2012 Author Share Posted December 31, 2012 Looks like Tony's guess may be pretty close, with extrapolation on Joe's figure through September and considering we've had a couple of events this Fall/early Winter (Oct. 17th/Christmas). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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