HurricaneJosh Posted May 23, 2012 Author Share Posted May 23, 2012 Wow-- a potentially sexy scenario is really crapping out. TS Bud hasn't strengthened at all, and the latest (2 am PDT) forecast now peaks the cyclone at 50 kt, then slowly kills it as it loops offshore. The models looked so enticing 48 hr ago. Ah, the mysteries of tropical-cyclone forecasting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 I have to lol @ the latest track map put out by the NHC: If one is not paying attention, it would be difficult to notice the actual direction of the forecast track towards the end of the period. Score one for keeping the line on the graphic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 o/u on peak intensity: 80 kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 o/u on peak intensity: 80 kts o... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 o/u on peak intensity: 80 kts o... it's doing quite well this morning....I like it better than 2 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 RECON is going to take a pass or two.... PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. TROPICAL STORM BUD FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75 A. 24/2000Z B. AFXXX 0102E BUD C. 24/1415Z D. 15.4N 107.7W E. 24/1930Z TO 24/2230Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE MISSION INTO HURRICANE BUD NEAR 17.0N 106.7W FOR 25/1800Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Perhaps a little RI overnight for Bud is in the works... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 What an amazing hurricane in-progress, NHC has become more bullish on Bud obtaining hurricane strength. Tropical Storm Watch issuedBULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BUD ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 800 PM PDT WED MAY 23 2012 ...BUD ALMOST A HURRICANE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PART OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 107.9W ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LA FORTUNA. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST. BUD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BUD IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY LATE FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BUD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY FRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 ...BUD BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 107.7W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 I still like the over on that 80kt call from yesterday morning. At least it's a real cyclone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Bud looks like he wants to become the first major hurricane of the season. There's still some dry air wrapping around from the west side, but it appears to be out of the inner core for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 RECON should be departing Keesler shortly. Bud may put on a show for that long flight this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 The over won, 90kts in the latest advisory...and forecasted to strengthen a little bit more. It was moving to the right and a little faster than previously forecasted...wouldn't it be cool that we had a major landfalling just before turning SW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Recon is probably going to find a strong cat 3. First major of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Always a good thing when your T-3 day peak intensity forecast is better than your T-1 forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 It's moving a tad faster than forecasted...not by much, but in these borderline cases it's important every wobble and small deviations. I think it will make landfall, mostly because at it's depth, it's feeling the trough a little more than a weaker system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Always a good thing when your T-3 day peak intensity forecast is better than your T-1 forecast. Its quite impressive how the storm is reaching peak intensity right under the supressed phase of the Kelvin wave. I think the main focus here is that the shear has decreased over the storm (thanks to the easterly flow being replaced by light and variable upper level flow). This perhaps is more important than than the large scale convergence aloft, which can be easily overcome from a dynamic process such as strong latent heat release. However, this storm is about to encounter the westerly flow on the back side of the suppressed Kelvin wave phase. Since this will also be combined with an upper level environment that is favorable for sinking motion (note the distinct lack of convection outside of the inner core of Bud), the storm will be very susceptible to dry air intrusions, and we will probably see Bud fall apart as fast as it intensified over the past 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 It looks like RECON will arrive just in time. Not too shabby for a storm that many had given up on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 It looks like RECON will arrive just in time. Not too shabby for a storm that many had given up on... Had anyone ever given up on it? Or did people just lose interest once they found out it would no longer be Joshable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Recon finding winds of around 90 knots in Bud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC) Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 19:44Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308) Storm Number & Year: 02E in 2012 Storm Name: Bud (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin) Mission Number: 1 Observation Number: 10 A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 19:17:10Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°08'N 106°28'W (16.1333N 106.4667W) (View map) B. Center Fix Location: 323 miles (520 km) to the SSW (195°) from Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, México. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,796m (9,173ft) at 700mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 89kts (~ 102.4mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the NNE (24°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 138° at 108kts (From the SE at ~ 124.3mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 964mb (28.47 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Closed Wall M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped) M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 210° to 30° (SSW to NNE) M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles) M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 108kts (~ 124.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:12:00Z Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the SW (225°) from the flight level center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Very impressed with NHC intermediate advisory... Within 1mb of central pressure and pretty much nailed the winds. Bud should be peaking in the next 6-12 hours with dry air and upper level westerlies already impinging looking at VIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 11 degree temp difference in/outside eye... very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Nice hit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Hurricane warnings up, now expected to make landfall as a hurricane in 36 hours. Southeast quad recon just found 108kt peak, identical to the NE quad an hour and a half ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Good, they now acknowledge the faster motion and a good possibility of landfall ... and very close to Jova land, to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC) Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 21:18Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308) Storm Number & Year: 02E in 2012 Storm Name: Bud (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin) Mission Number: 1 Observation Number: 16 A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 20:59:20Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°22'N 106°20'W (16.3667N 106.3333W) (View map) B. Center Fix Location: 305 miles (491 km) to the SSW (194°) from Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, México. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,808m (9,213ft) at 700mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SE (136°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 215° at 108kts (From the SW at ~ 124.3mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SE (139°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 966mb (28.53 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,054m (10,020ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,059m (10,036ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Closed Wall M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped) M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 40° to 220° (NE to SW) M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 108kts (~ 124.3mph) in the southeast quadrant at 20:54:00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Gonna be some big time rain-totals the way Bud is going to hover around the coast after landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 120kts FL winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 18z GFS is even faster than its previous run, and brings it ashore tomorrow morning...then it decouples while traversing montainous terrain and never comes back....looks like Jova's land will be very close to bullseye again...and it will probably be a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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