Srain Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 The Euro has been rather bullish on developing a TC near the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the medium to long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 6, 2012 Author Share Posted June 6, 2012 The Euro has been rather bullish on developing a TC near the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the medium to long range. Better not. I'm gonna be in Europe for two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Better not. I'm gonna be in Europe for two weeks. I knew you be interested Climo suggests this area would fire up sooner or later. TC genesis is rather robust as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 6, 2012 Author Share Posted June 6, 2012 I knew you be interested Climo suggests this area would fire up sooner or later. TC genesis is rather robust as well... You meant this feeble thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSEKnsWcK9I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 6, 2012 Author Share Posted June 6, 2012 So childish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSEKnsWcK9I Hater... HPC: WRN NORTH AMERICAN HEMISPHERE TROPICS CONT TO BE BASICALLY INACTIVE AT THIS TIME AS SEEN BY CHI VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES INDICATING UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THIS MAY WELL CHANGE IN A WEEK TO 10 DAYS AS INDICES SHOW AN INCREASE AS THE SOUTH AMERICAN MONSOON ACTIVITY SHIFTS NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH BETTER CONDITIONS OVER THE WRN CARRIBEAN AND ESPECIALLY THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WHICH IS TYPICAL JUNE CLIMATOLOGY. LONGER TERM RUNS OF GFS CONT TO SHOW AN INCREASE OF DEEP SERLY FLOW THRU THE WRN CARRIBEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A RETURN OF MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG 10N AT H850 PRODUCING A MORE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ALSO INCREASING MORE FAVORABLE LONGER TERM TROPICAL EAST PAC CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 7, 2012 Author Share Posted June 7, 2012 That feature is still there in the Euro-- showing up as a small, weak-ish cyclone near the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the 8-9-day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Guidance continues to advertise TC genesis near the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the 7-10 day range. There are indications that the MJO will be more favorable in this time frame and the HPC suggests Chi forecast are conducive for tropical formation during the end of June as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 12z ECMWF has a huge monsoonal depression transitioning into a significant cyclone by the end of the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Nice writeup this morning:... PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 352 AM EDT FRI JUN 08 2012 VALID 12Z TUE JUN 12 2012 - 12Z FRI JUN 15 2012 POSITIVE 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS NORTHWEST CANADA WITH BUILDING RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO RENEWED WESTERN TROUGHING LATE NEXT WEEK. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH RESIDUAL ENERGY ALOFT LINGERING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. A FAVORABLY-PLACED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO SHOULD LEAD TO A COUPLE TROPICAL CYCLONE ATTEMPTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT WEEK...AS ADVERTISED BY THE SUNY-ALBANY/ROUNDY TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITIES DURING LATE MAY. FOR THE MOST PART...THE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHARE THESE IDEAS. THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS A STRONG OUTLIER IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE 00Z GFS SHOWED THE WEAKEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THIS AREA. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY...USED A 40/30/30 COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z UKMET/00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE USING A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF THEREAFTER TO DEAL WITH UNCERTAINTIES NEAR THE EAST COAST LATE NEXT WEEK. ROTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 9, 2012 Author Share Posted June 9, 2012 The Euro is still showing the cyclone in the 8-10-day range, but it's less sexy-- looser, further N, farther offshore, etc. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Lemon well W of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 9, 2012 Author Share Posted June 9, 2012 Too far W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 We have a cherry this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Another pretty poorly forecasted genesis event in the EPAC is underway. The GFS has this system dissipating almost immediately which isn't going to happen, while the ECMWF shows the system battling moderate to strong Easterly shear before it fades away post 36 hours. I think the global models are probably underestimating the potential max intensity with this system, and SHIPS/LGEM is a good lowball estimate for the system reaching moderate to strong TS strength in 48 hours. Notice how the development of 93E seems to be closely tied with the passage of a pretty potent Kelvin Wave. The highest VP anomalies associated with the kelvin wave that seems to have just passed the system, and notice how the upper level winds have quickly shifted from strong westerly to weak easterly across portions of the Northeast Pacific in recent days. EDIT: Maybe I spoke too soon... doesn't look nearly as well organized as IR was depicting this morning. Still plenty of time for it to get its act together but the low/mid level centers are clearly disjointed at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 11, 2012 Author Share Posted June 11, 2012 Looks like this one might not make it. It's been demoted to Mandarin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Another pretty poorly forecasted genesis event in the EPAC is underway. The GFS has this system dissipating almost immediately which isn't going to happen, while the ECMWF shows the system battling moderate to strong Easterly shear before it fades away post 36 hours. I think the global models are probably underestimating the potential max intensity with this system, and SHIPS/LGEM is a good lowball estimate for the system reaching moderate to strong TS strength in 48 hours. Notice how the development of 93E seems to be closely tied with the passage of a pretty potent Kelvin Wave. The highest VP anomalies associated with the kelvin wave that seems to have just passed the system, and notice how the upper level winds have quickly shifted from strong westerly to weak easterly across portions of the Northeast Pacific in recent days. EDIT: Maybe I spoke too soon... doesn't look nearly as well organized as IR was depicting this morning. Still plenty of time for it to get its act together but the low/mid level centers are clearly disjointed at this time. looks like the ECMWF had the right idea all along. Its not completely dead yet, but its having exceptional difficulty aligning the low/mid level centers against easterly shear. The wind anomalies with the Kelvin wave aren't actually helping because the upper level easterlies have continued to increase as the low-level flow is moving much more slowly (partially due to a mature WWB in the anomaly field). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 12, 2012 Author Share Posted June 12, 2012 The feature we were previously tracking has fizzled. However, there are two new features-- a Lemon and a nice-looking Mandarin, way down near Costa Rica. Fresh fruits! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Well the 12Z Euro is certainly bullish with 94E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Well the 12Z Euro is certainly bullish with 94E. 988mb direct hit to Huatulco/Puerto Angel. This could be a legitimate threat because conditions might be pretty good, with strong poleward outflow evacuation and especially if the disturbance to the west can get out of the way, and if there's a quick structure organization we could see RI before landfall (intensifying at landfall)...the GFS has a bit farther east, with a hit in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 94E is now a cherry. Since we are having ongoing discussions in both Basins, I suspect the pattern that is unfolding is similar to what we saw in 1989. Hurricane Cosme made landfall near the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the EPAC and left over energy developed into what would become Tropical Storm Allison in the Western Gulf in late June of that year. The pattern does suggest increased moisture in the Western Caribbean/Western Gulf as the monsoonal trough lifts N and multiple areas of vorticity develop within the monsoonal gyre of a broad area of low pressure near the Bay of Campeche. Forecaster Roth covers this in the HPC overnight extended forecast... ELSEWHERE...A RETROGRADING REX BLOCK MOVED FROM THE 60TH PARALLEL TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...WITH ITS SOUTHERN MEMBER DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHWEST CUBA...SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR MID TO LATE JUNE. DUE TO THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST...DISTURBED WEATHER/A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WHICH MAY DRIFT NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. GENERAL RIDGING ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO AND INCREASINGLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FAVORS DISTURBED WEATHER WITHIN THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...AND THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS TWO PROSPECTS FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT WEEK IN THIS REGION. SATURDAY SEEMS TO BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARID NEW MEXICO...BUT EVEN THEN THEY SHOULD BE SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND COULD DO MORE HARM THAN GOOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 It looks like we may have some RECON for 94E... WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0930 AM EDT WED JUN 132012 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z JUN 2012 TCPOD NUMBER.....12-026 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIX OF A POSSIBLE DEVELOPING HURRICANE AT 15/1800Z NEAR 13.5N 95.5W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 My hunch is that this system is going to end up fighting easterly shear as the upper level easterly flow increases on the backside of a CCKW. On the flip side, the system is situated in a high SST and deep moisture environment, so easterly shear alone might not be enough to prevent development like we saw with 93E. EDIT: I meant upper level easterlies, not westerlies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 ^^^ That looks good for 94E, I assume you're talking 95E? ^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 ^^^ That looks good for 94E, I assume you're talking 95E? ^^^ It looks good now for 94E, but as the Kelvin Wave moves eastward those strong upper level easterlies will move overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 13, 2012 Author Share Posted June 13, 2012 The models seem pretty aligned on bringing Carlotta into the Gulf of Tehuantepec-- but SHIPS makes it only a moderate TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 94E is getting a bit better organized this afternoon. My hunch is we may well see a depression some time tomorrow if convection increases near the CoC overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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