burgertime Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 No mention of the 1003 low off hatteras on the euro? As long as its in the neighborhood of impacting land in the SE I figure it deserves a mention. Especially for our coastal folks. Meh it doesn't look like anything special TBH...there is some coastal development but it doesn't really affect anything even on the immediate coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 No mention of the 1003 low off hatteras on the euro? As long as its in the neighborhood of impacting land in the SE I figure it deserves a mention. Especially for our coastal folks. So basically...how does this affect me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 You know what you must do. The snowboard must be given willingly by the coworker to you. Then it must be mailed to someone in the mid-Atlantic region, preferably in Richmond or DC. Once this is done, the models will then begin showing false snowstorms for us to follow again. So basically...how does this affect me? You get partly cloudy skies with a nw flow Goofy still has me with temps in the 30's Tuesday so hopefully I can use up some of this firewood, but my sprinkles on the 8/9th are gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 So basically...how does this affect me? You get to see pictures of a snow flurry on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Guys, please take the discussion about the AK block (or not) to the medium range thread. Agree, this is Cheez's early Jan cold thread, if it pertains to macro type, first real taste of arctic air disco, needs to be here. Real-time obs, short term obs/disco thread, and the AK block setting up shop on the 300hr GFS (EC ens mean may be hinting circa 240), SE med-long range disco (including anything after the ~ 7th). Please keep it relevant, anything else not otherwise ---> Banter. Since this is the SE early Jan cold thread, maybe a SC/NC coastal on the backside, 12z ECMWF @ H5, honestly, not a bad look for E NC, ILM-HAT given the > 6 day range. H5 150hrs H5 156hrs Surface 156hrs H5 parcels displaced SW about 150-200 miles at this t-step, yeah, advisory type of event for the coastal plain, both Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I always like to do comparisons of comparable airmasses...its a great learning experience. One of the cold blasts last January here was Jan 11 and Jan 12, where Charlotte had a high of 33, and 35. My airport had 30, and 32. Quite a cold airmass. However, this one is forecast to be stronger than that one on the 96 hour GFS (it could still grow warmer however)...but several runs now have had -15 approx. at 850 over the region, and -16 toward AVL and HKY. The ECMWF has around -14 for CLT and this immediate area. So both models are showing slightly colder than last years approx -11 to -12. And the forecast from all outlets I recall had mid to upper 30's just the day before on that event. This one should be comparable, one offsetting factor is lack of snowcover. But making up for that is the fact that this incoming airmass has more north to northwest trajectory, as opposed to last season's more west/nw . On this side of the mountains, our coldest air at the surface occurs with more nw to northerly winds. If the models keep the -15 air for Tuesday, then its likely CLT and HKY will have a high temp around 30 to 32. Marion, Hickory and the foothills could stay in the upper 20's. Each of the last 6 major cold waves with -10 or greater at 850 here yielded substantially lower than forecast temps at the surface, so we'll see if that trend continues. Current NWS forecast at Shelby-Charlotte are upper 30's on Tuesday, mid 30's Hickory and Marion. Some TV outlets around the region have near 40 as the high. Last Jan 12: Current GFS at 96 hr: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I always like to do comparisons of comparable airmasses...its a great learning experience. One of the cold blasts last January here was Jan 11 and Jan 12, where Charlotte had a high of 33, and 35. My airport had 30, and 32. Quite a cold airmass. However, this one is forecast to be stronger than that one on the 96 hour GFS (it could still grow warmer however)...but several runs now have had -15 approx. at 850 over the region, and -16 toward AVL and HKY. The ECMWF has around -14 for CLT and this immediate area. So both models are showing slightly colder than last years approx -11 to -12. And the forecast from all outlets I recall had mid to upper 30's just the day before on that event. This one should be comparable, one offsetting factor is lack of snowcover. But making up for that is the fact that this incoming airmass has more north to northwest trajectory, as opposed to last season's more west/nw . On this side of the mountains, our coldest air at the surface occurs with more nw to northerly winds. If the models keep the -15 air for Tuesday, then its likely CLT and HKY will have a high temp around 30 to 32. Marion, Hickory and the foothills could stay in the upper 20's. Each of the last 6 major cold waves with -10 or greater at 850 here yielded substantially lower than forecast temps at the surface, so we'll see if that trend continues. Current NWS forecast at Shelby-Charlotte are upper 30's on Tuesday, mid 30's Hickory and Marion. Some TV outlets around the region have near 40 as the high. Last Jan 12: NAM is crazy cold at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 NAM is crazy cold at 84 hours. Just saw that. Here's the 850 at 84. This is colder than any airmass here last season. I saw a high of 30 twice last season so this should be a good first test...CLT saw a high of 32 twice if I recall (with full sunshine) I may look that up. Anyway, the ECMWF and NAM are in decent agreement on temps with around -15 coming into north GA to near Atlanta and up the spine of the Apps. on Tuesday morning. I see FFC is going with highs lower 40s in their ATL metro....looks rather warm to me. As for us, I'll wait to see if GFS holds its ground. I doubt we hit upper 30's, I'm thinking more like 30 for CLT and upper 20s , possibly 30 just west. Also, the NAM has a lot of 850 moisture that will snow like crazy in the mountains if thats right, possibly flurries breaking east of the Apps. To do that for us, we need more north/nw winds to get snow flakes to "break containment"...happens quite often with this type wind trajectory. No big deal though, token flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Yep would be pretty interesting if we didn't it make it to 30 or past 30...but it certainly could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalejr88 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Hey Robert I have question I live in the mountians of sw va. are we looking at a good upslope snow event. Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Hey Robert I have question I live in the mountians of sw va. are we looking at a good upslope snow event. Thanks in advance Possibly, not sure of amounts yet. Usually true arctic air has high ratios...looks good for several inches in the upslope, and even snow showers around Asheville and the lower communities. http://shelbyweather.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 00z GFS is a little colder than 18z was for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 00z GFS is a little colder than 18z was for next week. yep, gets the -15 right on our door step by Tuesday AM. Amazing shot of cold, which looks colder than anything I can remember either of the last 2 years for us. A due north to nw wind at the surface and we're likely to remain in the 20's. Even with sunshine (think we'll have some clouds). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 yep, gets the -15 right on our door step by Tuesday AM. Amazing shot of cold, which looks colder than anything I can remember either of the last 2 years for us. A due north to nw wind at the surface and we're likely to remain in the 20's. Even with sunshine (think we'll have some clouds). and no moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Possibly, not sure of amounts yet. Usually true arctic air has high ratios...looks good for several inches in the upslope, and even snow showers around Asheville and the lower communities. http://shelbyweather.blogspot.com/ Good Call Robert, GSP seems to agree. .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AT 2 AM EST SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SATURDAY...TO EASTERN CANADA BY LATE MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY SUNDAY...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPORTING ONLY VERY LOW POPS. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES QUITE STIFF FROM THE WEST FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF UPSLOPE FLOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE NC MOUNTAINS ALONG THE TN BORDER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AS WINDS TAKE THEIR TIME BECOMING ORTHOGONAL IN VEERING FROM WEST TO NW...CONTINUING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. COLD ADVECTION WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO THE VALLEY FLOORS SUNDAY EVENING. ON MONDAY A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWINGS AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE SWATH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND ANOTHER SURGE IN LOW LEVEL WINDS...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES COOLING THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN THE NC MOUNTAINS...WITH SNOW AT ALL BUT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS. MOIST NW FLOW PEAKS IN THE MIDDLE OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW LEVELS REACHING VALLEY FLOORS EARLY. STIFF NW WINDS PERSIST JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NC MOUNTAINS...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...AND NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD ADVECTION WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST ONE CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...AND SEVERAL CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY NIGHT...OVERWHELMING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WARMING IN THE LEE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Tuesday still looks like it won't get to freezing for CLT and GSP and probably staying under 25 for Asheville. This outbreak looks a little colder than the 2 big ones that hit in January 2010, all of those were about the coldest in this region in several years, with 850 temps around -10 to -12 on Jan 2 , and -14 to -15 on Jan 9. This one is progged to -15 in the AVL GSP CLT HKY area on most models, -16 of the GFS. SREF: Jan 2, and Jan 9 2010: Also, this one has a very northerly component and the 850 RH has an usual spilling east of the Apps into NC, so clouds and flurries are possible in GSP CLT HKY and INT, but no accumulations...for early Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Good Call Robert, GSP seems to agree. they're going a little warm in the entire CWA for Tuesday. I'm sure they will make a downward adjustment on later packages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Flurries would satisfy a lot of us for now! Looks like it will be very breezy as well? So no fishing early next week for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Flurries would satisfy a lot of us for now! Looks like it will be very breezy as well? So no fishing early next week for me! This may bring a few flurries to ne Ga , northern SC and part of the western piedmont and foothills of NC, not to mention the excellent upslope snow event this is going to be in all the mountain Chain. Just a very nice one for the upslope areas, even Asheville should get part of this one, with maybe an inch in the city. Up to 12" in the most excellent upslope areas thanks to how efficient and perfect the winds will be and very low temps/high ratios. This cold and upslope event deserves its own special thread, imo. There will be a good tap to the lakes later on, but before then the 850 moisture is plentiful and coming in the most preferred direction to get the entire chain, even northern GA should get flakes from this. Monday night and Tuesday is when it gets in high gear, with several strong vorts coming right overhead and loaded with 850 moisture and lift. High winds, low chills, and localized ground blizzard conditions in places like Boone and really wicked conditions on the ski slopes and high mountains like Grandfather and Roan. The temps should go down during the day in the western Carolinas Monday, or hold steady in the 30's, then by Tuesday we won't make it above freezing along the I-85 corridor from GSO CLT GSP to northeast GA. Nice little Winter blast, finally. The ratios should easily be over 20:1 , so West Va and the mtns of TN/NC should squeeze out a few inches easily, and again some nw facing spots will reach a foot with the powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 upslope does not help the rest of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Wouldn't be surprised to see Winter Storm Watch or Warning issued by tomorrow's package for Mon/Tue in the mountains. So far, nothing is even in the hazardous outlook, which is surprising. RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER- IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA- ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA- HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC- CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE- MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS- GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS- PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE- GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK- ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD- 553 AM EST SAT DEC 31 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. DAY ONE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT NONE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 upslope does not help the rest of us you have a higher chance than normal at seeing flurries from this outbreak. But that would be it, flurries. If you want to plow, head toward the mountains, 321, 221, 226 and parts of 40 west of Asheville, 77 into West Virginia, but it will be total powder and the winds will make plowing useless won't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 you have a higher chance than normal at seeing flurries from this outbreak. But that would be it, flurries. If you want to plow, head toward the mountains, 321, 221, 226 and parts of 40 west of Asheville, 77 into West Virginia, but it will be total powder and the winds will make plowing useless won't it? I was kidding. Unless I have contracts or know people are going to pay me I will stay here. Besides everybody and there family has plows in those areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I was kidding. Unless I have contracts or know people are going to pay me I will stay here. Besides everybody and there family has plows in those areas ah, ok. But right now no one is really expecting much of anything from what I'm reading, so maybe you could line it up before the others jump on it. Looks like a big deal to me with even Asheville getting an inch in town, and much more north and west of town. I'm waiting to see how the GFS does with its look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 510 thickness skirts across ne Tn and then VA/NC border. That doesn't happen often. Still has -16 at 850 down to Avl to HKY Statesville Salisbury. Comparable to the Jan 2010 cold wave, roughly 2 years ago. At 75 hours, -16 reaches to Rock Hill and Gaffney SC. No doubt for this area its the coldest airmass I can find in a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 this is one of the tightest gradients I can remember. The zero runs Memphis to Montgomery at 75 hours, meanwhile Charlotte and RDU are -16 or slightly colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
19jpc Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 It's going to be an EXTREMELY windy day monday into Monday night. Wind chills will be brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc87 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Even in east nc we are expecting 35 plus wind gusts so it will cut them teens and 20s right through you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 at 114 there could be some flurries, light stuff near the OBX, but that wave is on the move too, so it wouldn't last. The GFS is pretty fast with the entire flow, much more so thatn ECMWF has been. Also, it doesn't have quite as much snowfall as NAM . But its RH panel looks good, so I'm puzzle why it didn't show much qpf in the mountains. Still looks like flurries possibly spilling across northern NC and the foothills Tuesday with so much RH and north/nw winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Just to counter balance... The winter heat is on today and for January 1st. Going to flirt around 60 at least!! Very nice weekend to get outdoors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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