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okie333

OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

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12z GFS took a slight step in the Euro direction. Both models would now take the snow NW of here though. A couple of the ensembles are interesting.

usaasnowipersfc192.gif

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12z Euro has snowfall along and north of I-44 from 156-168. It's going to depend on the speed of the systems. One system is the cutoff over the SW, the other system is in the N. Stream and it's going to feed the southern system cold air and keep it from lifting northward too quickly. I hope the N Stream comes in faster or is colder, then we can all get snow.

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That would be nice!! I'm new to all this, obviously, but which is a better model to use 7 days out? GFS or Euro?

That would probably be the Euro since the Day 6 scores show it currently crushing the GFS @ 500 MB. The UKIE is in 2nd and GFS 3rd with the Canadian bringing up the rear not too far off the GFS score.

But I do caution that timing differences this far out can be pretty huge and this all depends on getting the N stream in here before the S low kicks out.

acz6.gif

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12z GFS took a slight step in the Euro direction. Both models would now take the snow NW of here though. A couple of the ensembles are interesting.

Ha is this any shocker, nope. The good ole track to the north or northwest lol. I hope this changes cause its a pretty dull so far

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Wow...Wichita and across the middle of KS looks good for the 19/20th timeframe for some snow. I wish and sure hope the models start bringing that storm a little farther south...for all of us!!

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Man dougs blog posting has me down tonight bleh lol. Hes predicting below average snowfall this season for most of us, basically saying most the snows will stay nw of all of us and we will be rain for most of the storms unless colder air can get involved.....I hope this isnt true or its gonna be one long bleak and boring winter. Stranger things have happened though

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Man dougs blog posting has me down tonight bleh lol. Hes predicting below average snowfall this season for most of us, basically saying most the snows will stay nw of all of us and we will be rain for most of the storms unless colder air can get involved.....I hope this isnt true or its gonna be one long bleak and boring winter. Stranger things have happened though

Best time will probably be January on since we may get blocking that brings colder air down, of course the wavelengths between the storms should be farther apart by that time. I'm still interested in the storm I've been following.

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Best time will probably be January on since we may get blocking that brings colder air down, of course the wavelengths between the storms should be farther apart by that time. I'm still interested in the storm I've been following.

Yep usually january is our coldest month. But man if my memory serves me right havent we gotten our biggest snow the past few years in feb. or march? And which storm you referring to the one on the 21st you mentioned above?

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Yep usually january is our coldest month. But man if my memory serves me right havent we gotten our biggest snow the past few years in feb. or march? And which storm you referring to the one on the 21st you mentioned above?

Yeah, we typically don't get a lot of storms around here in Jan. It picks up in Feb and March again though.

The system I've been watching has been bouncing around a bit. It would be next week though.

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Yeah, we typically don't get a lot of storms around here in Jan. It picks up in Feb and March again though.

The system I've been watching has been bouncing around a bit. It would be next week though.

yea man january is usually bland and just cold as hell....feb is ok but march forget it unless its a night storm cause of that big fireball in the sky is getting back higher in the sky lol

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00z GFS is getting better with the system in question.

usaasnowi72sfc156n.gif

Looks like the last 3 runs of the GFS have all trended colder and have all moved the snowfall southeast.

The 12z had snow in N. Kansas/S. Neb. The 18z was similar but with heavier snow totals. The 00z JoMo just posted above. Hopefully this trend continues.

Hopefully the 00z Euro will continue the trend.

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I don't like the lack of cold air with this system, regardless of track. There's no pre-existing surface high, and the polar jet is zonal and stretched across friggin' Canada from coast to coast. The Euro does look better in this regard, but only slightly.

If anything, this looks more reminiscent of a late March or early April bowling bowl closed low where some area out in W TX gets half a foot of heavy cement overnight at 32.4 F that melts the next morning. I fear that the area in the cold sector with below-freezing thermal profiles could ultimately be smaller than the GFS suggests, but that depends largely on the strength of the upper low. The good news for me is that heavy, wet snow with near-freezing temperatures is my favorite kind, so the best-case scenario would be rather awesome.

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Well, just saw that Ron Hearst said that there is no chance of a White Christmas this year. Well that is settled then. axesmiley.pngsanta.giffacepalm.png

Looks like Tulsa agrees pretty strongly this morning:

OF NOTE IS THE EXTREME LACK OF A COLD AIR SOURCE ANYWHERE OVER THE

NEXT WEEK TO TEN DAYS. THIS MEANS THAT ALL PRECIPITATION IS ALMOST

CERTAIN TO REMAIN LIQUID UNLESS WE CAN GET A "PERFECT STORM"

SCENARIO OF AN IDEAL STORM TRACK COUPLED WITH A SUFFICIENTLY

STRONG ENOUGH SYSTEM TO MANUFACTURE ITS OWN COLD AIR. WITH NONE OF

THE CURRENT FORECAST MODELS DEPICTING THIS OCCURRING...WILL KEEP

ALL PRECIPITATION LIQUID AS CHANCES OF ANYTHING ELSE IS VERY

REMOTE AS OF THIS POINT IN TIME. IT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE A

WHITE CHRISTMAS WILL BE NOTHING MORE THAN A DREAM FOR AN UNUSUALLY

HIGH PRECENTAGE OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES...INCLUDING MUCH

OF THE NORTHERN U.S.

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Is it cold enough (but shallow) to where fz rain/sleet are an issue or is it simply showing a cold rain right now?

There's a freezing rain/sleet threat as well. Freezing rain is pink and sleet is orange and snow is blue and rain is green on this map.

usaptypesfc138.gif

usaptypesfc150.gif

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Is it cold enough (but shallow) to where fz rain/sleet are an issue or is it simply showing a cold rain right now?

At least how the models depict the system now, with the "bowling ball" look, ice is very unlikely for anyone. Significant freezing rain would be almost out of the question. Sleet might be possible, but more likely mixed in with rain or snow wherever it were to happen. Basically, I would not expect an ice storm for anyone unless the models change drastically.

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At least how the models depict the system now, with the "bowling ball" look, ice is very unlikely for anyone. Significant freezing rain would be almost out of the question. Sleet might be possible, but more likely mixed in with rain or snow wherever it were to happen. Basically, I would not expect an ice storm for anyone unless the models change drastically.

Totally agree with everything said here. This reminds me of an early Spring winter storm setup for the Southern Plains, when sources for cold air are lacking and a perfect low pressure track is required to produce a heavy, wet snow. Definitely doesn't look like a late December setup at all. These types of setups are generally more tricky than usual to forecast, as models tend to have a very difficult time getting the vertical temperature profiles correct. It will be interesting to see how this evolves, becuase this type of setup has produced big-time snowfalls in NW/NC/NE OK in the past.

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Totally agree with everything said here. This reminds me of an early Spring winter storm setup for the Southern Plains, when sources for cold air are lacking and a perfect low pressure track is required to produce a heavy, wet snow. Definitely doesn't look like a late December setup at all. These types of setups are generally more tricky than usual to forecast, as models tend to have a very difficult time getting the vertical temperature profiles correct. It will be interesting to see how this evolves, becuase this type of setup has produced big-time snowfalls in NW/NC/NE OK in the past.

March 20, 2010.

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