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okie333

OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

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4 completely different runs of the GFS today regarding the system next week, not really taking much credence from any of them...

...or it might be my frustration with this constant stream of cut-offs showing through :P

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4 completely different runs of the GFS today regarding the system next week, not really taking much credence from any of them...

...or it might be my frustration with this constant stream of cut-offs showing through :P

4 runs, 4 diff solutions? That's a normal day in GFSland.

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4 runs, 4 diff solutions? That's a normal day in GFSland.

I was mainly comparing to the much more consistent previous four on Monday.

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Well the models have changed their tune a couple of times, remember that huge warm up over most of the country they were showing a few days ago? That's pretty much gone. Now instead of a big storm system over the central US, there's a small storm system with barely any precip. Anything past day 5 is subject to very large swings.

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Well the models have changed their tune a couple of times, remember that huge warm up over most of the country they were showing a few days ago? That's pretty much gone. Now instead of a big storm system over the central US, there's a small storm system with barely any precip. Anything past day 5 is subject to very large swings.

So much for the pattern change/interesting weather :axe:

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So much for the pattern change/interesting weather :axe:

Actually going back on this a bit, the Euro has a significant storm in this period, which was only a cut-off a couple of days ago.

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After looking at the long range charts this will be one of the least snowiest winters on record.

I dunno, we'll see. Sometimes we get big storms into mid-march that wrap up so we still have until then.

It's always weird waking up to 6" of snow, then having the temp get up to 55 that day.

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I still have hope guys, lol. Like I have said all winter long I think one or two have to come together. Ok so now I am thinking 1 has to come together. I hope we get something. If this goes down as the least snowiest winter I am going to be pissed. But lets look at the positive. We know any winter can't really get worse than this one. Come on snow. We have about 2 more months. Realistically we have about a month and a half. We will get into the arctic plunges that are possible again in late February and early March. If we make it to March 10th, we are done, stick a fork in it. At this point in time I just want one storm that we can watch for a few days and have fun with and get something decent out of it.

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No worries the 384 hour 00z GFS is setting us up for something interesting...lol.... It's breaking down the pesky Alaskan vortex by the end of the month as well. Maybe this time it'll be gone for good.

usavrthgtgrd500mb384.gif

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The 12z models long range is looking interesting again, but it's the same song and dance that the models have been showing for months now. The Alaskan vortex that has been coming and going, goes away again. High latitude ridging develops, drops cold air into the west with a -PNA and who knows what happens from there. If that sets up slightly farther east, it could be a good Feb, that is, if it actually happens and isn't transient with the AK vortex returning.

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That's kind of a flip on the 00z GFS with the handling of a storm system in the medium range. Such large run to run changes.

usaasnowi72sfc174t.gif

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12z GFS really showing some colder signs now in the longer range past h168. I know its done this before but this could be the change we're looking for with Feb coming up soon.

I don't even know anymore. This winter has been terrible for winter lovers. Every time it looks like things may be turning around, the models change their tune. Outside of 3-5 days, they have been flip-flopping like crazy. Even the Euro which is often slow and steady when it comes to changes has been moving things around a lot from run to run.

I know if the pattern continues like it does, our severe season is going to be terrible.

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man its drizzly, foggy and misty bad here. Temp is falling now also down to 34.8 supposed to be 19 up here tonight. Might have to contend with freezing fog or drizzle if this keeps up?

Nvm just noticed springfield is mentioning it now but for the eastern areas, nope doing it here also lol

32.6 now steady very light rain! craziness

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I'm concerned with ice with the next couple systems.

I totally agree. I was talking to our local NW Ark Fox/NBC met this past week and we looked at a lot of historical data where the pattern was thesame as we're in now. Super warm crashed into shallow cold and brought ice storms. I didn't take good enough notes to show examples.

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yeah all the winter weather advisories have been canceled it looks like. The models will change a lot but right now it doesn't look like much going on as far as wintry stuff in the short term.

00z GFS Fantasy storm (wish it was colder):

usapcpprstmp2m300y.gif

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You know its slow when we are posting maps of +300 and +336 hours. I guess we are reduced to meteorolgical Hail Mary's at this point.

It's not even a good fantasy storm as temps are marginal, lol

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