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okie333

OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

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00z GFS is still running, but just a heads up, it doesn't close off the next system around Days 4-5 like it has been and instead brings it out with enough cold air for snow.

If it does snow, I take full credit since I renounced my 'i'd rather have warm weather if it isn't going to snow' statement. :)

usaasnowi72sfc138r.gif

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OK, a bit of encouragement for snow lovers from Ross Ellect at 40/29. The basic premise is that we usually have little snow by now (average 4" in NW AR), and we have had 0" - 3" - 0" in the last 3 years. All of which went on to offer some serious winter weather later in the season. The last few warm days have got me daydreaming about spring-type activities, but I fear that is not a smart thing to indulge in quite yet. :ee:

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Ozarkwx, do you hate winter? :(

I'm kidding of course.

Tonights GFS run put me in a better mood even though we aren't in the best place to see winter weather and I would rather see a western trough.

Of course none of this will matter in 30 mins when the Euro starts and shows something completely different.

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I'm not a Broncos fan since I'm a Chiefs fan, but that Broncos game was amazing. I think they lose next week, but Tebow played really well.

I'm almost over my snow withdrawals as I'm not looking at every model every 6 hours, I've moved to every 12 hours... lol

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I'm not a Broncos fan since I'm a Chiefs fan, but that Broncos game was amazing. I think they lose next week, but Tebow played really well.

I'm almost over my snow withdrawals as I'm not looking at every model every 6 hours, I've moved to every 12 hours... lol

How exciting is this lol? Probly gonna have to do huh

Wednesday Night: Scattered flurries after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25.

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How exciting is this lol? Probly gonna have to do huh

Wednesday Night: Scattered flurries after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25.

Pretty much the same here. I hope we don't go from a terrible pattern to just a bad pattern once the pattern change is complete. There are signs of a trough in the east which would result in NW flow in this area which is pretty poor for snow chances.

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I'm not a Broncos fan since I'm a Chiefs fan, but that Broncos game was amazing. I think they lose next week, but Tebow played really well.

I'm almost over my snow withdrawals as I'm not looking at every model every 6 hours, I've moved to every 12 hours... lol

That was a great ending. Glad to see PItt go out this early. Tebow working some more of his majic. I'm with you I think they lose next week at NE.

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That was a great ending. Glad to see PItt go out this early. Tebow working some more of his majic. I'm with you I think they lose next week at NE.

yeah they already lost once to New England this year.

The 00z GFS was awful, better enjoy the flurries in a few days cause that may be it until Feb or March at least.

Of course the 00z Euro will be completely different though.

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yeah they already lost once to New England this year.

The 00z GFS was awful, better enjoy the flurries in a few days cause that may be it until Feb or March at least.

Of course the 00z Euro will be completely different though.

Sad now not until feb. or march....CANCEL WINTER lmao! This sux

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Yep, as predicted the Euro and GFS are different as early as Day 8 or so with the Euro colder. Model madness still.

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hehe, oh that crazy 12z GFS has an overrunning snow situation within 7 days. It looks like it merges 3 different pieces of energy in the west to come up with this solution. Very.. odd

usaasnowi72sfc156f.gif

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LOL...GFS is always throwing me a bone!!! HA...this will change 50 times before it's said and done...I am hoping for it to move a little farther north..but it's something to get amused by:) Model craziness continues...........

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12z Euro says no go on the crazy GFS solution above. Beyond that, model skill has been pretty bad with the pattern change but it looks like very cold arctic air is building in Canada which may make a run at us or get stuck to our north past day 7.

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12z Euro says no go on the crazy GFS solution above. Beyond that, model skill has been pretty bad with the pattern change but it looks like very cold arctic air is building in Canada which may make a run at us or get stuck to our north past day 7.

JoMo, did any of the GFS Ensembles agree with the Operational run? I don't know where to find the ensemble charts.

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Snow withdrawal, eventually you get through them and find yourself not caring if it snows or not. Of course, you have to go through the stages of grief first.

1. Denial - Oh, it's no big deal, the pattern will get better, all the models are wrong, we'll get some snow!

2. Anger- Stupid models, stupid weather, why can't we just get some damn snow!?

3. Bargaining - If we just get 1" of snow this winter, I will be happy... I'll do anything for just 1" of snow!

4. Depression - This winter is terrible, it's never going to snow ever again, I feel so hopeless.

5. Acceptance - Well, it didn't snow this winter, there's always next winter!

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Snow withdrawal, eventually you get through them and find yourself not caring if it snows or not. Of course, you have to go through the stages of grief first.

1. Denial - Oh, it's no big deal, the pattern will get better, all the models are wrong, we'll get some snow!

2. Anger- Stupid models, stupid weather, why can't we just get some damn snow!?

3. Bargaining - If we just get 1" of snow this winter, I will be happy... I'll do anything for just 1" of snow!

4. Depression - This winter is terrible, it's never going to snow ever again, I feel so hopeless.

5. Acceptance - Well, it didn't snow this winter, there's always next winter!

:lmao: Good one!

Although #5 is not really accepting. You are sort of going back to #1 only a year ahead of time. :pimp:

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I'm between 4-5 right now. Usually I'd be freaking out at what the 12z GFS showed, looking up all the ensembles, looking at all the other models, waiting for the 18z to come out to see if it's still there even if the 12z just ran.

My first thought today was "haha, yeah right"

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And the 18Z GFS took our storm and went east:( I have moved into ANGER and DEPRESSION...fixing to jump off that cliff!!!

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I have come to acceptance rather quickly this season. It really doesn't bother me anymore that we won't see any snow...

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LOL Jomo Im on stage 4 borderline 5. Could things get interesting this weekend? KY3 seems to maybe think theres a possible chance so does springfield. Doug mentioned it on his blog but doesnt sound to confident yet. And maybe just maybe wednesday night, thursday morning some flurries or snow showers, hell I'll take anything at this point!

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LOL Jomo Im on stage 4 borderline 5. Could things get interesting this weekend? KY3 seems to maybe think theres a possible chance so does springfield. Doug mentioned it on his blog but doesnt sound to confident yet. And maybe just maybe wednesday night, thursday morning some flurries or snow showers, hell I'll take anything at this point!

Yeah the chance of light snow and flurries with the front is still there, probably more on the flurry side. The 00z GFS shows nothing interesting this weekend.

Long range 00z GFS has a couple of fantasy storms, lol

Euro will probably be different anyway.

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LOL Jomo Im on stage 4 borderline 5. Could things get interesting this weekend? KY3 seems to maybe think theres a possible chance so does springfield. Doug mentioned it on his blog but doesnt sound to confident yet. And maybe just maybe wednesday night, thursday morning some flurries or snow showers, hell I'll take anything at this point!

Sounds like stage 3 to me

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So the 00z Euro has the arctic front coming down at 180 out ahead of an ejecting storm system, that may get interesting.

There is some mega cold air up in Canada.

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Well it's looking more active on the 12z GFS. You can clearly see that 'gradient' across the country. The cold air may setup shop farther north or farther south, there's no knowing at this time.

usaasnowipersfc384m.gif

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Figures..right where I thought we would be...right on the line...UGH!

Maybe not even on the line if the ensembles are right as they depict a farther north solution. It's just the GFS though, lol

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