MidlothianWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 LOL, Like i said, I don't mean to be. I'm just trying to pull the reins back a bit. I am totally on board for a light snow, as you say a "Garden Variety" type deal...lets just not let the ahem...barking...get us manic. Thanks for your input. Having an NWS met in here is greatly appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteKEAN2004 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Thanks for your input. Having an NWS met in here is greatly appreciated! No problem. For the record, I'm nowhere near the office for another week or so, so I'm scrounging for internet data like everyone else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 dat euro sorry my old RIC peeps... Edit: Realistically, I know this storm will definitely be north of this, most likely something between the GFS and NAM. NAM, I get 2 inches, GFS I get 7.5 so there is still a wide range of solutions for SW VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 DC folks are having it worse than us Richmond folks. Richmond would at least still see snow. (Based on euro..) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powhatan Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 DC folks are having it worse than us Richmond folks. Richmond would at least still see snow. (Based on euro..) It's payback from the previous year when others got snowmageddon and we often got a wintry mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It's payback from the previous year when others got snowmageddon and we often got a wintry mix. Welcome to the forum BTW! Were you on the WTVR chat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'm just a lurker so what do I know, but I'm pretty sure people have been saying for years that the euro is a long range model and loses its accuracy at this range...this storm is going north at 0z. No way RIC gets more snow total than DCA this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 saw 18z NAM... sh¡t myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 18z nam is basically same compared to 12z nam. Euro still furthest south model right now. At least for Central and eastern Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 if only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 SW va near the Mountains just get crushed... and then it stripes toward Richmond.. Possible? Sure.. Euro .. says south baby.. Storm is still a nail biter for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 SW va near the Mountains just get crushed... and then it stripes toward Richmond.. Possible? Sure.. Euro .. says south baby.. Storm is still a nail biter for this area. Euro is pretty far south compared to the rest of the guidance. How often does one model, no matter which it is, standing against all the others actually verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Definition of "threading the needle"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 wakefield not impressed FXUS61 KAKQ 172059 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 359 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012 && . MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OCCURS DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS WELL IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SUITE OF 00Z MODELS. TWO MAIN DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED DURING THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. FIRST...THE PRECIPITATION START TIME HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL LATE SATURDAY EVENING. SECOND...THE ECMWF MODEL IS A BIT SLOWER IN SPREADING PRECIP NORTHWARD SUNDAY MORNING. SINCE THE ECMWF APPEARED TO BE AN OUTLIER...THE POP FORECAST CONSISTED OF A NAM/GFS/SREF BLEND (GENERALLY). THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS A SHORTWAVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PHASES WITH THE TROUGH...THUS DEEPENING THE SFC LOW MOVING INTO LA/MS. DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVING INTO CENTRAL NC AND S CENTRAL VA HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL BETWEEN 03Z-06Z SUNDAY. HAVE DECREASED POPS DURING THIS TIME...LIMITING LIKELY MENTION TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL VA/NC BORDER. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS ALL RAIN AND OVERSPREAD THE AKQ CWA FROM SW TO NE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST U.S. SATURDAY EVENING AND DRAG A DRY COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT A COLD WEDGE OVER EXTREME NORTHWEST AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT MAY DEVELOP. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ALL SNOW MAY BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE IN THIS AREA AS PRECIP BEGINS. SINCE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ALSO TAKING PLACE AT THIS TIME...HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST P-TYPE UNTIL CONFIDENCE GROWS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL COLD WEDGE. BY 12Z SUN...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICT THE SFC LOW ACRS NORTHERN GA OR SC...SLIDING ENE AND SLIDING OFF THE NC COAST BETWEEN 18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z MON. THE LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS TIME...WHICH WILL BRING COLDER AIR IN FROM THE NNW. DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD...MODELS ALL SHOW SOME DRYING ALOFT...INCLUDING PART OF THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER BETWEEN -10C AND -20C. AS UPPER SYSTEM/SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVE FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTN...ALL MODELS SHOW INCREASING LIFT WITH -10C TO -20C ONCE AGAIN BECOMING SATURATED. LATEST ECMWF IS A BIT QUICKER TO BRING COLD AIR SOUTHWARD THAN THE GFS...AND THIS WILL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT AFTN/EARLY EVENING FCST. FCST WILL INDICATE ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY FOR SE VA/NE NC...WITH A RAIN/SLEET...RAIN/SNOW MIX REACHING NW COUNTIES BETWEEN 18-21Z SUN...AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO METRO RICHMOND BETWEEN 00Z-03Z/MON. MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD BE ALL SNOW AS PTYPE AFTER 06Z...THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH FORCING AND MSTR WILL BE LEFT AFTER THAT. BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND ONE INCH LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY FARMVILLE TO ASHLAND TO MELFA...GIVE OR TAKE 20 MILES OR SO. THESE AREAS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID-UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S PRIOR TO THE CHANGEOVER AND THEREFORE ACCUMULATION WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR MORE RAPIDLY AFTER THE CHANGEOVER. FARTHER S/E MUCH OF THE INITIAL SNOW SHOULD BE SLOW TO ACCUMULATE DUE TO SATURATED GROUND SURFACES (LESS THAN HALF AN INCH)...ALTHOUGH FCST DOES INDICATE A CHANCE OF SNOW INTO SOUTHERN/SE VA PRIOR TO ENDING BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z/MON. FOR HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST INTACT DUE TO CLOUDS...PRECIP AND FALLING TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE AFTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 wakefield not impressed Wow...they are going very conservative with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteKEAN2004 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 That's the Mid-shift discussion for short term...it should be updated shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Thanks for the update! WhiteKEAN2004 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 That's the Mid-shift discussion for short term...it should be updated shortly. BTW, I want to let you know that we support you with these forecasts. Obviously, predicting weather for a large population center is an entirely different ballgame than doing it for a Facebook group or weather forum. Keep up the good work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteKEAN2004 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS INITIALLY...A NRN STREAM WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BEFORE WASHING OUT OVER SRN VA. THE GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THIS BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z AND 6Z. IT IT VERY EVIDENT IN THE 850 MB OMEGA FIELD AND THEIR IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION WITH NW...BUT WITH TROUGH QUICKLY SLIDING EAST...THE COLD ADVECTION DAMPENS OUT BY 9Z TO 12Z. MEANWHILE...THE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE. IT IS A LITTLE SLOWER TODAY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR...BUT STILL DIFFERENT ENOUGH TO KEEP A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF HOW COLD IT IS GOING TO GET...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 12Z NAM IS THE COLDEST OF THE SCENARIOS AND ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER. IT DOES NOT REALLY GET THE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT GOING UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z SUN AND THEN SPREADS IT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. BUT IT DOES NOT ALLOW THE WARM AIR ALOFT TO SPREAD IN AND WOULD SUGGEST MORE SNOW FROM FVX TO RIC TO SBY. THE GFS...DOES ALLOW MORE WARM AIR TO SURGE NORTHWARD IN THE STRONG SE FLOW AND GETS THE 0 LINE AT 850 CLOSER TO LKU TO CGE BY 18Z AND THEN ALLOWS THE COLDER AIR TO CRASH IN LATER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WOULD HAVE A MUCH STRONG IMPACT ACROSS SRN VA AND NC AND NOT GETTING NEARLY AS MUCH PCPN NORTH INTO VIRGINIA. AT THIS POINT...THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE MIDDLE GROUND SO HAVE LEANED A BIT MORE WITH THAT FORECAST. SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO KICK IN A LITTLE QUICKER ON SAT NIGHT AND HAVE IT SPREAD QUICKLY NORTHWARD BETWEEN 9Z AND 15Z. BUT WITH THE QUICKER RETURN OF THE MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING SE FLOW ALOFT...SHOULD SEE A GOOD PUSH OF WARM AIR SO MUCH OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FROM OF RAIN. ONLY IN THE FAR NW...NEAR THE VA PIEDMONT...WITH THE COLD AIR HOLD AND THIS AREA COULD BE MOSTLY SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX. BY 18Z...THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OFF THE COAST AND THE TROWAL ALOFT BEGINS TO DEVELOP WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EAST. THIS WILL BEGIN TO ALLOW THE COLD AIR TO THE WEST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MOVING FROM CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT INTO THE AREAS ALONG I -95 BY 00Z. IT WILL CONTINUE TO CRASH TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE EVENING WITH A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW...AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SNOW FALL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR MOVE BACK EAST ALLOWING FOR THE CHANGEOVER...HAVE BEEN A BIT CONSERVATIVE. FOR NOW HAVE ALLOWED FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM FVX TO RIC TO SBY AND THEN UP TO 2 INCHES ELSEWHERE. BUT IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW AND THE COLDER AIR GETS A LITTLE MORE ENTRENCHED...AMOUNTS COULD BE MORE. -- End Changed Discussion -- Updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geothermal Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 BTW, I want to let you know that we support you with these forecasts. Obviously, predicting weather for a large population center is an entirely different ballgame than doing it for a Facebook group or weather forum. Keep up the good work! I will second that, Sure wouldn't want to be the one calling this one!, what a roller coaster ride, even if nothing comes out of it sure has been fun to follow all week but hoping for the white hammer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 NOW THATS MUCH BETTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteKEAN2004 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 BTW, I want to let you know that we support you with these forecasts. Obviously, predicting weather for a large population center is an entirely different ballgame than doing it for a Facebook group or weather forum. Keep up the good work! Thanks...once again, I'm not privvy to the discussion in the office this week as I'm out on leave. Not to harp on previous posts, but again, this is the ultimate thread the needle forecast, with the cold air chasing the moisture on its way out sunday night. There's a LOT of room for error and it's not as easy a forecast as it may appear to some. Still looking over the new euro but it appears convection is a bit more slow to move out of the area, even geting enhanced by the llvl jet. Of course, the pcpn placement will be crucial...but it's a step in the right direction for the big snow we're looking for (or most of us anyway). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Richmond going to get crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Just how many people keep saying Richmond.. I repeat what I said the other day. I believe people trying to really jinx Richmond! Richmond does not need help in that regard. Usually area's just to the north and west... get better to do higher elevations (yes it does matter some ;p). ><; I'm not that serious about this post. just amazes me how many times I've read Richmond the passed few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 From reading the Wakefield discussion, the progress of the cold front Sunday morning will be the difference from more snow less snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 GFS and NAM both stay the course with the more northern depiction. I like where I'm sitting. 3-5 from Wakefield is unheard of ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The daily snowfall record for Sunday the 19th is 4.4" set in 1972. Btw, that storm is actually in the Kocin book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The daily snowfall record for Sunday the 19th is 4.4" set in 1972. Btw, that storm is actually in the Kocin book. 3.7" fell on that day back in 1979 bringing Richmond's PD I storm total to 10.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I thought that was going to be a disaster at 36 hours. But, wow. Almost 3/4" of liquid and almost all snow... sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Although I don't like the shrinking moisture. It does seem like a colder look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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