MidlothianWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The AKQ radar upgrade is complete! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 18z had RIC in 2-5 inch band. However, NEVER go by those accum maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I said to Jake last night that I thought we'd seen the northern and western-most of the potential solutions on the table last night. My gut is that there's going to be a beastly rain-snow line somewhere between the airport and the town of Montpelier in Hanover. I just hope I'm on the north/west side of that line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I said to Jake last night that I thought we'd seen the northern and western-most of the potential solutions on the table last night. My gut is that there's going to be a beastly rain-snow line somewhere between the airport and the town of Montpelier in Hanover. I just hope I'm on the north/west side of that line. I think you'll be fine Kevin. Short Pump seems to do well with these Miller A events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I also said to my wife, from whom I got a groan of disappointment when I said it (she's a teacher), that this could be one of those events where 4 or 5" accumulates on the deck and almost nothing accumulates on the roads, especially if most of the snow falls during the day. Think back to 3/1/09. It snowed most of the day and barely accumulated anything. Snowed overnight and we piled up 8" pretty quick out this way. I think you'll be fine Kevin. Short Pump seems to do well with these Miller A events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I also said to my wife, from whom I got a groan of disappointment when I said it (she's a teacher), that this could be one of those events where 4 or 5" accumulates on the deck and almost nothing accumulates on the roads, especially if most of the snow falls during the day. Think back to 3/1/09. It snowed most of the day and barely accumulated anything. Snowed overnight and we piled up 8" pretty quick out this way. Yeah this is from that afternoon...notice the rates we needed for even minor accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I said to Jake last night that I thought we'd seen the northern and western-most of the potential solutions on the table last night. My gut is that there's going to be a beastly rain-snow line somewhere between the airport and the town of Montpelier in Hanover. I just hope I'm on the north/west side of that line. Short Pump is usually JUST enough NW to get good snows in Miller A's. I live in Tuckahoe, but bought a house out off of 522 (15-20 mi NW of Short Pump). I wish I was moved in for this event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jfletch Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 If Short Pump does well, then I should be straight up here in Ladysmith in western caroline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 i'm up at canaan valley wva. so i mill miss the event back home--- man those 18z runs looked drool worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yeah this is from that afternoon...notice the rates we needed for even minor accumulation. More and more I think that 3/1/09 storm is what this is gonna play like. A bit less accum, but similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 GGEM looks decent for us again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 looking like a solid 4-5 inch snow for RIC......UNLESS the models trend colder and the low stays in the same area. If that occurs, 6-8 seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Dr. No says game on for RIC and SW VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 ...... This is a nail biter for Richmond. YOu got the big dog Euro just loving the area... We should see snow in Richmond.. how much is rain before that is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 ... And a heads up hazzardous weather update out of AKQ.. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 140 AM EST FRI FEB 17 2012 MDZ023-VAZ048-049-060>091-180645- SOMERSET-FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER- CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD- HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND- NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE- CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE- SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK- 140 AM EST FRI FEB 17 2012 ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. DENSE FOG ADVISORY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SUNDAY EVENING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbscott126 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 What a sight for sore eyes. Haven't seen a map like this out of HPC in a long time. I'll take a 40%-69.9999% probability of 4+ inches three days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 What a sight for sore eyes. Haven't seen a map like this out of HPC in a long time. I'll take a 40%-69.9999% probability of 4+ inches three days out. impressive here are the 8" probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 impressive here are the 8" probs latest data suggests those may need to be rexamined/adjusted a bit east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Good old va snow storm got to love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Good old va snow storm got to love it. so i guess you heard him on wrva? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Holy NAM, Batman.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 silly NAM, tricks are for kids. I can't see this storm dropping a foot + in Goochland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteKEAN2004 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Agreed, I'm still very wary about the qpf forecast of the GFS, nevermind the wacky downscale NAM. SREF anomalies are rather mediocre honestly (you want a STRONG negaltive SLP anomaly over the SE coast, and the one I see is ~1-2SD below...,as are the Upper anomalies, indicative of a system that does not slow as much as I'd like to see for a major snow dump). Also still some serious misgivings about the Convection riding across the SE. That stuff is depicted by the GFS RACING east across the carolinas, which the models tend to boost QPF (wrongly). Sure, it's colder, great...but if your DGZ dries out more/quicker than the model depicts, who cares? Sorry for the cold water. I'm still behind the light accumulation idea on the back side...but this 4,5,6 Inch forecast for all of the metro? I have to say I'm not there yet. Will be interesting to see 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Agreed, I'm still very wary about the qpf forecast of the GFS, nevermind the wacky downscale NAM. SREF anomalies are looking rather weak (you want a STRONG negaltive SLP anomaly over the SE coast, and the one I see is ~1-2SD below...,as are the Upper anomalies, indicative of a system that does not slow as much as I'd like for a major snow dump). Also still some serious misgivings about the Convection riding across the SE. That stuff is depicted by the GFS RACING east across the carolinas, which the models tend to boost QPF (wrongly). Sure, it's colder, great...but if your DGZ dries out more/quicker than the model depicts, who cares? Sorry for the cold water. I'm still behind the light accumulation idea...but this 4,5,6 Inch forecast for all of the metro? I have to say I'm not seeing it yet. Will be interesting to see 12z. Got a bit too technical for me there, but I get the gist. NAM is notorious of overcooking QPF, and the dynamics of this system COULD allow for variable precip shields. However, I feel confident that the metro area will see 4-7 inches widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Agreed, I'm still very wary about the qpf forecast of the GFS, nevermind the wacky downscale NAM. SREF anomalies are rather mediocre honestly (you want a STRONG negaltive SLP anomaly over the SE coast, and the one I see is ~1-2SD below...,as are the Upper anomalies, indicative of a system that does not slow as much as I'd like to see for a major snow dump). Also still some serious misgivings about the Convection riding across the SE. That stuff is depicted by the GFS RACING east across the carolinas, which the models tend to boost QPF (wrongly). Sure, it's colder, great...but if your DGZ dries out more/quicker than the model depicts, who cares? Sorry for the cold water. I'm still behind the light accumulation idea on the back side...but this 4,5,6 Inch forecast for all of the metro? I have to say I'm not there yet. Will be interesting to see 12z. well it took until feb 17 for a akq met to chime in that just tells you how bad this winter has been yea ric has a huge bust potential but without a doubt this will be the event of the season here only 0.1 is needed for that lol. keep us posted thanks for popping in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WatrDogg Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 JMU, I agree with you. I can't see that kind of snow in Goochland from this event at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 looking at the nam hr 54 has a warm layer but not by much this is where pow/ gooch could be cashing in here is 57 hour all snow here now this is the precip that from hr 57 on as you can see that is still a ton of QPF after the change over thats why just west of ric could get nailed per the nam but the nam would nail ric as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteKEAN2004 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Also note the heavy precip keyed in by the nam in the 21-03/Mon period, with the soundings clearly showing the DGZ (-10 to -20C) drying out. Again, dubious. Banding will need to come into play here to achieve the lofty totals some are expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Also note the heavy precip keyed in by the nam in the 21-03/Mon period, with the soundings clearly showing the DGZ (-10 to -20C) drying out. Again, dubious. Banding will need to come into play here to achieve the lofty totals some are expecting. Debby-downer... Even if you cut the totals in half, it's a pretty decent accumulation for around here. I feel like it's been years since we had a garden variety 4" snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteKEAN2004 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Debby-downer... Even if you cut the totals in half, it's a pretty decent accumulation for around here. I feel like it's been years since we had a garden variety 4" snow storm. LOL, Like i said, I don't mean to be. I'm just trying to pull the reins back a bit. I am totally on board for a light snow, as you say a "Garden Variety" type deal...lets just not let the ahem...barking...get us manic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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