DJF average AO

[OKpowdah]

average taken from CDC monthlies

[skierinvermont]

Solidly positive +.8, biggest uncertainty is Feb. These things are always hard to predict, could be anywhere from negative to very positive.

[Baroclinic Zone]

i gotta go 0 to +1 given where it is.

[weathafella]

Even.

And skier, 1993-94 AO was higher vs 1994-95, 1996-97......2 years with long sub par periods. For 1994-95 it blew end to end that winter. There's more to it. And mjo...entirely is dependent on it's strength.

[skierinvermont]

Even.

And skier, 1993-94 AO was higher vs 1994-95, 1996-97......2 years with long sub par periods. For 1994-95 it blew end to end that winter. There's more to it. And mjo...entirely is dependent on it's strength.

See my response in the other thread.. when I said huge I wasn't referring to the numerical values of the AO... I was referring to the fact that there was very good blocking in and north of the bering strait driving cold into NA... so we had a -AO winter even though the AO wasn't extremely negative because other parts of the arctic were not in a -AO state. The actual 500mb pattern is what is important.. not the numerical AO values.

[OKpowdah]

-1.2

[weatherwiz]

-1.2

[weathafella]

See my response in the other thread.. when I said huge I wasn't referring to the numerical values of the AO... I was referring to the fact that there was very good blocking in and north of the bering strait driving cold into NA... so we had a -AO winter even though the AO wasn't extremely negative because other parts of the arctic were not in a -AO state. The actual 500mb pattern is what is important.. not the numerical AO values.

True...and low hts and deep cold have occurred in plus states...in one recent case....1992-93....snow for BOS was more plentiful vs last year. I still thnk it averages neutral this year

[CoastalWx]

Eh, I don't feel confident at all, but I'll say -0.5 A good chunk of December at least, is lost.

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully we can get this to drop, because I'm wondering if my earlier fears a few months ago of a -NAO not really occurring this year are going to happen. December is toast WRT a -NAO I think.

[mahk_webstah]

Playing the odds...it's been positive for a while, looks to be so for December, so it's probably going to drop in Jan, Feb!

[Tropopause_Fold]

it can average out however it wants...as long as it's not super negative or super positive.

up/down with some frequency would be nice.

[CoastalWx]

it can average out however it wants...as long as it's not super negative or super positive.

up/down with some frequency would be nice.

Yeah exactly. It definitely would help to have it hovering like -1SD or so when you look at the pattern, but in the end...it will do whatever it wants.

[40/70 Benchmark]

i gotta go 0 to +1 given where it is.