And we continue......

[skierinvermont]

The big -NAO is mostly responsible both for the late freeze up of Fox Basin as well as the near-record snowcover in Europe right now.

Regardless, I think you will see both Foxe Basin and Hudson Bay freeze up very quickly over the next couple weeks.

Of course in the short term it is due to the -NAO, but a similar -NAO in the 80s or 90s wouldn't have produced such an ice deficit.

[tacoman25]

Of course in the short term it is due to the -NAO, but a similar -NAO in the 80s or 90s wouldn't have produced such an ice deficit.

Apples to oranges, hard to say...there were very few years in the 1980s and 1990s with a pattern like we've seen this fall.

[skierinvermont]

Apples to oranges, hard to say...there were very few years in the 1980s and 1990s with a pattern like we've seen this fall.

I'd say the nearly 2C of warming in the arctic since the 80s and the 30-year year-round deterioration of arctic sea ice has at least as much to do with it as a few weeks of -NAO and +EPO in the fall. NOTE: I'm not saying that this is entirely due to AGW or even GW.. not even trying to go there, but clearly a very different large scale mechanism is at play than just the recent pattern, be it AGW, natural GW, or just global year-round changes that have warmed the arctic and deteriorated the ice.

[wi_fl_wx]

Just wanted to say that I enjoy reading the updates on ice/snow cover and seeing the excitement of the snow cover growing.

That being said, it is definitely a losing battle on the long time scales. When some of the oscillations line up, you can still get decent ice cover, but when you start with such warm temperatures from the warm summers, it gets hard to freeze those warm bodies of water over at an early date--which of course makes a huge difference. It only takes one look at the surface temps of any global model to see the huge warm anomaly over the Hudson Bay. Even when it is cold, it is usually at the expense of it being really warm somewhere else.

It'll be interesting to see what happens over the next 10+ years as the earth gets warmer. Sooner or later there is going to be a pattern that blows away 2007, and so on.

[tacoman25]

I'd say the nearly 2C of warming in the arctic since the 80s and the 30-year year-round deterioration of arctic sea ice has at least as much to do with it as a few weeks of -NAO and +EPO in the fall. NOTE: I'm not saying that this is entirely due to AGW or even GW.. not even trying to go there, but clearly a very different large scale mechanism is at play than just the recent pattern, be it AGW, natural GW, or just global year-round changes that have warmed the arctic and deteriorated the ice.

Except that we're talking about places that are sub-Arctic and melt completely every summer anyway. Hudson Bay is definitely not Arctic, dude.

[tacoman25]

Just wanted to say that I enjoy reading the updates on ice/snow cover and seeing the excitement of the snow cover growing.

That being said, it is definitely a losing battle on the long time scales. When some of the oscillations line up, you can still get decent ice cover, but when you start with such warm temperatures from the warm summers, it gets hard to freeze those warm bodies of water over at an early date--which of course makes a huge difference. It only takes one look at the surface temps of any global model to see the huge warm anomaly over the Hudson Bay. Even when it is cold, it is usually at the expense of it being really warm somewhere else.

It'll be interesting to see what happens over the next 10+ years as the earth gets warmer. Sooner or later there is going to be a pattern that blows away 2007, and so on.

1998 is still the warmest year on record. That was 12 years ago. Who knows how things will be in 10 more years, though!

What do you think about the record cold/snow going on in Europe right now? It sure is blowing most other years away!

[Alpha5]

What do you think about the record cold/snow going on in Europe right now? It sure is blowing most other years away!

No but thats because of global warming too

[nzucker]

Apples to oranges, hard to say...there were very few years in the 1980s and 1990s with a pattern like we've seen this fall.

We never had a monster -NAO in the 80s and 90s really. Especially not combined with a strong La Niña that makes October come in with a big +EPO, and that's during one of the most important months of the year in terms of freezing places like Baffin Bay, Foxe Basin, etc.

I'd say the nearly 2C of warming in the arctic since the 80s and the 30-year year-round deterioration of arctic sea ice has at least as much to do with it as a few weeks of -NAO and +EPO in the fall. NOTE: I'm not saying that this is entirely due to AGW or even GW.. not even trying to go there, but clearly a very different large scale mechanism is at play than just the recent pattern, be it AGW, natural GW, or just global year-round changes that have warmed the arctic and deteriorated the ice.

I don't really see what this has to do with the decline in arctic sea ice...these bodies of water melt every year and are unconnected to the main ice pack. I think this is an entirely bogus argument, honestly. Besides, the 1C of global warming that's occurred since 1970 has nothing to say versus temperatures being 10-15C above average due to the presence of -NAO/+EPO pattern. You have to recognize that we're dealing with a 3SD NAO block, and it's not only extreme but persistent...the high heights have stayed over the same places for months now, even years in some cases, since Summer 2008. That's combined with a strong GoA low that's making it hard to fill Canada with cold air; you saw when we finally got a -EPO a couple weeks ago, all of a sudden -20C 850s showed up over Hudson Bay. I'm with Tacoman on this one.

Also, I don't see why you couldn't have had an unfrozen Hudson Bay or Foxe Basin in the 1940s if you'd seen this extreme of a pattern. All it takes is massive ridging and S/SE winds off the warm Atlantic to keep places like Foxe Basin and Baffin Bay unfrozen for a long time. If you never get any north winds off the pole and are constantly stuck with crappy maritime air, of course nothing's going to freeze fast. It just so happens that we're now seeing the most extreme west-based NAO block on record in 2010. Global temperatures are also lower now than the 30-year average on the satellites, surely lower than they were during the 1982-83 Super El Niño, for example.

[nzucker]

Just wanted to say that I enjoy reading the updates on ice/snow cover and seeing the excitement of the snow cover growing.

That being said, it is definitely a losing battle on the long time scales. When some of the oscillations line up, you can still get decent ice cover, but when you start with such warm temperatures from the warm summers, it gets hard to freeze those warm bodies of water over at an early date--which of course makes a huge difference. It only takes one look at the surface temps of any global model to see the huge warm anomaly over the Hudson Bay. Even when it is cold, it is usually at the expense of it being really warm somewhere else.

It'll be interesting to see what happens over the next 10+ years as the earth gets warmer. Sooner or later there is going to be a pattern that blows away 2007, and so on.

This is always true. The jet stream has to distribute heat equally; when there's a trough in one place, there has to be a ridge somewhere else.

Except that we're talking about places that are sub-Arctic and melt completely every summer anyway. Hudson Bay is definitely not Arctic, dude.

Also, global temperatures were way higher last year during the 09-10 strong El Niño and yet Hudson Bay and Foxe Basin froze comparatively early due to the -EPO blocking. It still wasn't great as we saw a -NAO in October as well, but definitely faster than this year which has the unfavorable +EPO/-NAO regime.

[nzucker]

lol.. "Actually" SSTs are not "above average" Foxe is always completely frozen by now and Hudson's Bay is mostly or totally frozen, how can SSTs be above average where every other year it is already frozen? Might want to think that one over again.

"And no" I didn't say Hudson's Bay was always 100% frozen by now, I said in the 80s and 90s it was mostly or totally frozen by now (Nov 29 not 27 BTW). Try reading that again.

You are kidding yourself if you think Foxe Basin was still totally unfrozen in the 40s and 50s on Nov 29th.

Also, unfrozen water has a much bigger moderating effect on cold air than does snow vs no snow. Basic physics. Also the area of unfrozen water is larger than the area of above average snow cover.

I am just saying NOAA is reporting below average SSTs in those areas; maybe this means they are about the same temperature as ice due to the water being right at the point of freezing? Also, I think we could have below average SSTs in Hudson Bay since the southern areas are not frozen by climo at this point. SSTs were above average there until the big arctic blast hit with the -EPO in mid-November that broke lots of snow/cold records out west. That probably cooled the Bay down a lot.

The latest map available for comparison was Nov. 27 on Cryosphere Today, so that's why I had to use that date. It was only like 30% frozen by this time of year in 1981, so I don't think saying it was almost totally frozen is true.

As for the moderation effect, it depends on the trajectory of the cold air. Most arctic airmasses entering the CONUS don't pass over Hudson Bay really...there is usually a massive high that comes down the Plains east of the Front Range, and those are the areas with good snow cover.

[wi_fl_wx]

1998 is still the warmest year on record. That was 12 years ago. Who knows how things will be in 10 more years, though!

What do you think about the record cold/snow going on in Europe right now? It sure is blowing most other years away!

Yeah it's crazy how cold it is--and there's a crazy drought in the Amazon.

I'm not sure what to think of all of it. The answers are probably very complicated and beyond our understanding. All the different oceanic/atmospheric oscillations that we measure seem to be related in ways that aren't understood yet.

It's also very difficult to measure and quantify all of this. The northern hemisphere snow/ice maps don't tell us anything about the snow depth, or the average snowpack temperature. If we had really sophisticated remote sensing technology, you could calculate a total snowpack volume--and then take the temperature into account and get the total energy of the snowpack. The area of the ice cap is such a primitive tool compared to what is possible--we only know what happens when it actually grows or shrinks.

I agree that we don't really know what it will be like in 10 years--but at least we will have another decade of data to try and sort some of this noise out.

[nzucker]

Here is what global snow cover looks like on the eve of meteorological winter:

Amazing how all the British Isles are covered as well as Southern France. Still lagging a bit in Kazakhstan.

[skierinvermont]

I am just saying NOAA is reporting below average SSTs in those areas; maybe this means they are about the same temperature as ice due to the water being right at the point of freezing? Also, I think we could have below average SSTs in Hudson Bay since the southern areas are not frozen by climo at this point. SSTs were above average there until the big arctic blast hit with the -EPO in mid-November that broke lots of snow/cold records out west. That probably cooled the Bay down a lot.

The latest map available for comparison was Nov. 27 on Cryosphere Today, so that's why I had to use that date. It was only like 30% frozen by this time of year in 1981, so I don't think saying it was almost totally frozen is true.

As for the moderation effect, it depends on the trajectory of the cold air. Most arctic airmasses entering the CONUS don't pass over Hudson Bay really...there is usually a massive high that comes down the Plains east of the Front Range, and those are the areas with good snow cover.

Sorry... I don't really care what an automated SSTA map from NOAA shows when it defies logic. Water is warmer than ice. SSTs are well above average in all of Hudson's Bay and Foxe Basin (except for the tiny areas of ice that have started to show up). While southern Hudson's Bay is not always frozen at this point it is frozen within a week.. while SSTs this year are too warm for it to freeze completely in a week even if we had cold air. Many years it was frozen already anyways.

I didn't say "almost totally frozen" I said "mostly or totally frozen." Try reading again. Maybe you can find one year that was 49% if you look hard enough.

As for the directory of cold, we frequently have air which has passed over Hudson's Bay in the NE US.

Also on the one hand you are saying that we are getting a late freeze due to a +EPO/-NAO but on the other you are saying SSTs are below average because of a -EPO spell in mid-November. Pretty contradictory. Maybe the -EPO spell did cool the SSTs but then the -NAO/+EPO the last several weeks would have warmed them back above average.

[nzucker]

I didn't say "almost totally frozen" I said "mostly or totally frozen." Try reading again. Maybe you can find one year that was 49% if you look hard enough.

Also on the one hand you are saying that we are getting a late freeze due to a +EPO/-NAO but on the other you are saying SSTs are below average because of a -EPO spell in mid-November. Pretty contradictory. Maybe the -EPO spell did cool the SSTs but then the -NAO/+EPO the last several weeks would have warmed them back above average.

In the year I posted it was like 35% frozen by area...remember the bottom is wider than the top. That's not "mostly or totally' in my book. Sorry.

I said the SSTs have cooled because of the -EPO shot...they were a lot more above average before that. The -20C 850s passing over the NW part of the Bay cooled it down, no surprise there.

[bluewave]

Here is what global snow cover looks like on the eve of meteorological winter:

Amazing how all the British Isles are covered as well as Southern France. Still lagging a bit in Kazakhstan.

That's really impressive to see over Europe.

[JBG]

I'd still take the robust snow cover over Canada and the Northern Plains over a frozen Hudson Bay; we just have so much more snow cover this year, than either 2009 or 2008, for cold N/NW winds to travel over as they make their way into the CONUS. Sure, there's going to be some moderation from the unfrozen waters of Hudson Bay, but I don't think that'll make too much of a difference compared to the fact that all our cold air is travelling over snow-covered lands.

Hudson Bay is important as a cold air source from late February on, as increasing daylight makes the area from the Continental Divide to the Saskatchwan/Manitoba border and north from there, winter's cold air source, warmer and increasingly snowless. Yellowknife cools earlier than, say, Churchill, Manitoba and warms earlier as well.

[skierinvermont]

In the year I posted it was like 35% frozen by area...remember the bottom is wider than the top. That's not "mostly or totally' in my book. Sorry.

I said the SSTs have cooled because of the -EPO shot...they were a lot more above average before that. The -20C 850s passing over the NW part of the Bay cooled it down, no surprise there.

Too bad it's from the 27th. Keep trying to correct me though! Like I said, maybe you can find one that's 49% if you look hard enough.

You said the -EPO mid-Nov are the reason for below average SSTs currently which makes no sense considering 1) ice is colder than water and most of it was frozen historically 2) you are arguing the +EPO/-NAO and horrible fall pattern is the reason for the late freeze

[weathafella]

Just a cameo. Snapshot of a robust cryosphere. Good penetration in NOAM and the USA in from the east coast.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Nobody has posted here in a while, so I thought I'd bump it in hopes that someone would post a map.

Seems like a lot of stories coming out about cold extremes in Europe. How is the NH as a whole doing with regard to cold this winter?

Anyway, would like to see what the snow and ice cover looks like.

[nzucker]

NH Snow Cover:

NH Snow Anomaly (red=deficit, blue=surplus):

We're doing pretty well in snow cover because of large surpluses in eastern China and Europe; all the cold and snowy weather in Europe has ben making headlines since late November, and they're getting a very intense arctic outbreak this week.

Here is the arctic sea ice graph from JAXA:

[wxmx]

[jimmosk]

May I make a request that in the future, ongoing informational threads like this be given less vague titles than "And we continue......"? It'd make it a lot easier to find a topic again. Thank you!