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Medium Range Discussion Winter 2011-12


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So far all seems to be on course for warm readings peaking at 2-3 standard deviations above normal in the Great Lakes and parts of the East. The 3/17 0z MOS shows the following maximum readings for select cities in the 3/19-23 timeframe:

Albany: 76°

Allentown: 72°

Boston: 72°

Burlington: 75°

Columbus: 82°

Detroit: 76°

Harrisburg: 73°

Indianapolis: 83°

Montreal: 71° (+21.7°C)

New York City: 74°

Ottawa: 72° (+22.2°C)

Philadelphia: 74°

Pittsburgh: 78°

Providence: 72°

Toronto: 72° (+22.2°C)

Washington, DC: 76°

Windsor: 75° (+23.9°C)

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I don't know where this goes, but it is just incredible. International Falls, MN broke their daily high temperature record by 20 (!) degrees today. They have now set records in 7 of 8 days. Minneapolis, Rochester and St. Cloud all have new records in the 6 of the last 8 days. Absolutely a historic climatological event.

post-1746-0-28912400-1332021815.png

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I don't know where this goes, but it is just incredible. International Falls, MN broke their daily high temperature record by 20 (!) degrees today. They have now set records in 7 of 8 days. Minneapolis, Rochester and St. Cloud all have new records in the 6 of the last 8 days. Absolutely a historic climatological event.

post-1746-0-28912400-1332021815.png

This is off the charts.

** A high temperature of 77 F was recorded at the International Falls Airport on March 17th. This is a new record warm temperature for the month of March at International Falls and breaks the old record of 73 F, set on March 31st, 1963.

http://www.crh.noaa....lh/?n=march2012

An incredible +41 degree departure on the day.

17 77 52 65 41

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Verification:

My March 8-15, 2012 thoughts (#1250) were as follows:

I suspect that the major stories for the March 8-15 timeframe will be:

1. Warmth in eastern North America, including southern Ontario and southern Quebec

2. Colder than normal temperatures return to a large part of Europe.

The below chart shows:

Top Left: The composite temperature anomalies for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies of -1.1°C to -0.3°C, a PNA of -1.0 to 0.0, and an AO of +0.5 to +2.0 for North America.

Top Right: The composite temperature anomalies for Europe using the same ENSO-Teleconnections listed above.

March8to152012.jpg

...The only significant adjustments would be to include warmer than normal anomalies across the Central Plains States to the Great Lakes (the area shown with near normal and slightly below normal readings) and for Alaska to be colder than normal statewide based on the observed decadal trends.

Should the MJO push into Phase 4 or even Phase 5 late in the period, there would be potential for some much above normal readings as the calendar approaches mid-month.

The actual anomalies are below:

March8to152012Anomalies.jpg

On March 12, the MJO moved into Phase 5. Excessive warmth unfolded toward mid-month, beginning in the Plains States and southern Canada. As a result, warm anomalies in North America were more expansive than the adjusted idea.

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Question:

I have a friend in Canada that is looking for the header code - or a web-site that has all of the daily records listed.

Seemed like NOAA/NCDC or the NWS used to put out a daily list.

Does anyone have any ideas of where that might be located?

Thanks

The NCDC list used to be found at: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/records.php

The site is currently listed as being down for maintenance until further notice.

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Unofficially, the temperature reached 23.0°C today in Montreal (CYUL). If that reading is confirmed in EC's records, that would establish a new monthly high temperature record (previously 22.6°C).

Don: Perhaps I shouldn't clutter your elegant thread but thought you and others would like to know that at BWI, for March, we've recorded four daily minimums of 50 and warmer.

The average departure for the month is just over 10 degrees.

Because the landscape never really froze this winter, mild days seem very summery with

a persistent haze across the scene.

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Unofficially, the temperature reached 23.0°C today in Montreal (CYUL). If that reading is confirmed in EC's records, that would establish a new monthly high temperature record (previously 22.6°C).

22.7°C in Mtl today.

I have a friend in Canada that is looking for the header code - or a web-site that has all of the daily records listed.

http://climate.weath...a/canada_e.html

Maybe that will help.

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Verification:

My March 8-15, 2012 thoughts (#1250) were as follows:

I suspect that the major stories for the March 8-15 timeframe will be:

1. Warmth in eastern North America, including southern Ontario and southern Quebec

2. Colder than normal temperatures return to a large part of Europe.

The below chart shows:

Top Left: The composite temperature anomalies for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies of -1.1°C to -0.3°C, a PNA of -1.0 to 0.0, and an AO of +0.5 to +2.0 for North America.

Top Right: The composite temperature anomalies for Europe using the same ENSO-Teleconnections listed above.

...The only significant adjustments would be to include warmer than normal anomalies across the Central Plains States to the Great Lakes (the area shown with near normal and slightly below normal readings) and for Alaska to be colder than normal statewide based on the observed decadal trends.

Should the MJO push into Phase 4 or even Phase 5 late in the period, there would be potential for some much above normal readings as the calendar approaches mid-month.

The actual anomalies are below:

On March 12, the MJO moved into Phase 5. Excessive warmth unfolded toward mid-month, beginning in the Plains States and southern Canada. As a result, warm anomalies in North America were more expansive than the adjusted idea.

Hi Don,

I greatly enjoy your medium range weather discussions, and I am always impressed by how well your forecasts pan out by simply compositing analogues with similar ENSO and teleconnections. However, don't you think that it's noteworthy that in this case, the extreme warmth was not at all predicted by the analogues? I know that you attribute the additional warmth to the MJO, but in March, I think we should be looking at the FMA MJO composite, which is quite different from the JFM composite. In late winter / early spring, the traditional winter-time effects of the MJO appear to be delayed such that phases 6 and 7 should be the warmest for the eastern US, rather than 5 and 6 during mid winter.

post-378-0-98629200-1332168951.png

That said, perhaps one could make an argument that we should still be using the winter MJO composites based on the fact that the overall NH wave pattern is still dominated by longwave troughs and ridges? I'm not really sure. Regardless, even if we do use the JFM MJO composite as a predictor, that would still only suggest +1 to +2 C temp anomalies, and even combined with ENSO and teleconnections, we're still far shy of the record warmth we've been seeing over the Great Lakes / southern Canada.

I'm not trying to take anything away from your forecasts or your methodology since you've been spot-on all winter. Quite the contrary, I thought maybe it was worth noting that here we have a highly anomalous pattern, (unusually strong and persistent Bermuda high to the east, persistent troughing pumping WAA into the ridge from the west), that was well predicted by the models but not nearly as predictable using an analogue forecasting technique, perhaps making this event even more anomalous! :)

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Thanks for the kind words, Icebreaker5221.

Thanks for catching the error. I greatly appreciate it. I try to look back to correct errors and, hopefully, improve, so this detail is important..

As you pointed out, for FMA and March, Phases 6 and 7 are the warmest in eastern North America. We're in that area right now. FWIW, for the 3/16-23 timeframe (#1283), even as the teleconnection analogs suggested a less warm outcome, I thought that the coast-to-coast warmth shown on the NAEFS offered a better idea for that period. For the current period, the NAEFS were the starting point of my thoughts.

I also agree with you about the extreme warmth, the analogs, and anomalous pattern. Sometimes tends to reduce anomalies. I believe there were a few very warm dates in the mix, but some cooler ones that offset those dates. Overall, IMO, the analogs are better for showing the likelihood and coverage of warm/cold anomalies than the actual magnitude of warmth/cold.

When it gets closer to a timeframe in question, I sometimes post on what the ensembles are showing e.g., 2- to -3-standard deviation height anomalies/850 mb anomalies for the 3/19-23 (actually working out for the 3/18-24 timeframe) and used some examples of what that might mean for select cities (#1297). Some of the temperatures citied e.g., for Montreal were above the all-time monthly mark, which was erased yesterday with that city's 74° high temperature. I don't believe analogs are very good, for the most part, in trying to assess the magnitude of anomalies, so I wait for the ensembles to be consistent on a point. Trying to pick out a single or tiny cluster of analog(s) reduces the sample size to a level where, at least in my view, the increased sampling risk exceeds the benefits of trying to pinpoint the relevant analogs. In sum, I believe analogs can provide some general insight, but do not go far enough to provide a lot more detail.

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Monthly Records Falling in Parts of Quebec:

Rivière-du-Loup:

At 11 am, the temperature at Rivière-du-Loup in Quebec Province stood at 15.3°C (59.5°F). That surpassed the existing monthly record. Previously, the warmest reading in March was 14.0°C (57.2°F).

Roberval:

11 am: 18.6°C (65.5°F); Previous monthly record: 17.0°C (62.6°F)

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Monthly Records Falling in Parts of Quebec:

Rivière-du-Loup:

At 11 am, the temperature at Rivière-du-Loup in Quebec Province stood at 15.3°C (59.5°F). That surpassed the existing monthly record. Previously, the warmest reading in March was 14.0°C (57.2°F).

Roberval:

11 am: 18.6°C (65.5°F); Previous monthly record: 17.0°C (62.6°F)

Don, Toronto Pearson has surpassed the 1946 record, as of today.

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Don, Toronto Pearson has surpassed the 1946 record, as of today.

You're talking about the 1946 mean temperature, is that correct? So far, the highest temperature for today that I've seen is 20.0°C. Other parts of Ontario and also Quebec are basking in the highest readings recorded in March. Ottawa is a little short of its monthly record (25.1°C vs. 26.7°C from 3/29/1946).

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The record-setting warmth of March 2012 toppled numerous monthly high temperature records across parts of Ontario and Quebec today. In a few cases, the monthly records had been set on previous days during the current period of historic warmth. Highlights included:

Ontario:

Muskoka: 24.7°C (76.5°F); Previous March records: Pre-2012: 22.9°C (73.2°F) and 2012: 24.2°C (75.6°F) on March 19

Sudbury: 22.0°C (71.6°F); Previous March records: Pre-2012: 17.0°C (62.6°F) and 2012: 21.9°C (71.4°F) on March 18

Timmins: 25.9°C (78.6°F); Previous March records: Pre-2012: 19.9°C (67.8°F) and 2012: 23.6°C (74.5°F) on March 19

Wawa: 22.4°C (72.3°F); Previous March record: 20.0°C (68.0°F)

Wiarton: 25.0°C (77.0°F); Previous March record: 23.1°C (73.6°F)

Quebec:

Chibougamou: 21.0°C (69.8°F); Previous March record: 16.1°C (61.0°F)

Matagami: 23.5°C (74.3°F); Previous March records: Pre-2012: 17.6°C (63.7°F) and 2012: 19.9°C (67.8°F) on March 19

Mont-Joli: 19.8°C (67.6°F); Previous March record: 17.1°C (62.8°F)

Montreal: 23.3°C (73.9°F); Previous March records: Pre-2012: 22.6°C (72.6°F) and 2012: 23.1°C (73.6°F) on March 18

Rivière-du-Loup: 18.7°C (65.7°F); Previous March record: 15.3°C (59.5°F)

Roberval: 22.8°C (73.0°F); Previous March record: 17.0°C (62.6°F)

Val-d'Or: 23.6°C (74.5°F); Previous March records: Pre-2012: 17.6°C (63.7°F) and 2012: 22.1°C (71.8°F) on March 19

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Upon further review, my point concerning MJO Phase 5 was based on earlier composites I had run strictly for March. I went back to the composites and further refined the set for all March dates after 3/10. Phase 5 (high amplitude) has blow-torch anomalies in eastern North America.

The following chart illustrates the MJO and magnitude of warmth:

Top Left: MJO

Top Right: MJO Phase 5 (Amplitude 1.8 or above), March 11-31, 1975-2011

Bottom Left: MJO Phase 6 (Amplitude 1.8 or above), March 11-31, 1975-2011

Bottom Right: Temperature Anomalies since the MJO moved into Phase 5

MJO03202012.jpg

What this likely means is that some of what is seen in the February-April composite anomalies concerns lower amplitudes and it also concerns later season changes with respect to the MJO's impact.

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The record-setting warmth of March 2012 toppled numerous monthly high temperature records across parts of Ontario and Quebec today. In a few cases, the monthly records had been set on previous days during the current period of historic warmth. Highlights included:

Ontario:

Muskoka: 24.7°C (76.5°F); Previous March records: Pre-2012: 22.9°C (73.2°F) and 2012: 24.2°C (75.6°F) on March 19

Sudbury: 22.0°C (71.6°F); Previous March records: Pre-2012: 17.0°C (62.6°F) and 2012: 21.9°C (71.4°F) on March 18

Timmins: 25.9°C (78.6°F); Previous March records: Pre-2012: 19.9°C (67.8°F) and 2012: 23.6°C (74.5°F) on March 19

Wawa: 22.4°C (72.3°F); Previous March record: 20.0°C (68.0°F)

Wiarton: 25.0°C (77.0°F); Previous March record: 23.1°C (73.6°F)

Quebec:

Chibougamou: 21.0°C (69.8°F); Previous March record: 16.1°C (61.0°F)

Matagami: 23.5°C (74.3°F); Previous March records: Pre-2012: 17.6°C (63.7°F) and 2012: 19.9°C (67.8°F) on March 19

Mont-Joli: 19.8°C (67.6°F); Previous March record: 17.1°C (62.8°F)

Montreal: 23.3°C (73.9°F); Previous March records: Pre-2012: 22.6°C (72.6°F) and 2012: 23.1°C (73.6°F) on March 18

Rivière-du-Loup: 18.7°C (65.7°F); Previous March record: 15.3°C (59.5°F)

Roberval: 22.8°C (73.0°F); Previous March record: 17.0°C (62.6°F)

Val-d'Or: 23.6°C (74.5°F); Previous March records: Pre-2012: 17.6°C (63.7°F) and 2012: 22.1°C (71.8°F) on March 19

Moosonee, ON (just south of James Bay) got to 73.4 F (23 C) yesterday...that's gotta be a record for the month and earliest in the year.

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Final numbers for March 20, 2012:

Ontario:

Earlton: 23.4°C (74.1°F); Previous March record: 16.8°C (62.2°F)

Kapuskasing: 26.2°C (79.2°F); Previous March record: 22.0°C (71.6°F)

Moosonee: 23.4°C (74.1°F); Previous March records: Pre-2012: 13.7°C (56.7°) and surpassed on March 16, 17, and 19 prior to yesterday. Mean temp: 25.6°C (46.1°F) above normal on 3/20; Low temperature of 8.8°C (47.8°F) beat the old daily high temperature record of -0.3°C (31.5°F)

Muskoka: 24.8°C (76.6°F); Previous March records: Pre-2012: 22.9°C (73.2°F) and 2012: 24.2°C (75.6°F) on March 19

North Bay: 24.4°C (75.9°F): Previous March records: Pre-2012: 19.8°C (67.6°F) amd 2012: 20.6°C (69.1°F) on March 18 and 22.8°C (73.0°F on March 19)

Sudbury: 23.1°C (73.6°F); Previous March records: Pre-2012: 17.0°C (62.6°F) and 2012: 21.9°C (71.4°F) on March 18

Timmins: 26.1°C (79.0°F); Previous March records: Pre-2012: 19.9°C (67.8°F) and 2012: 23.6°C (74.5°F) on March 19

Wawa: 22.4°C (72.3°F); Previous March record: 20.0°C (68.0°F)

Wiarton: 25.1°C (77.2°F); Previous March record: 23.1°C (73.6°F)

Windsor: 27.0°C (80.6°F); Previous March record: 26.6°C (79.9°F)

Quebec:

Chibougamau: 21.6°C (70.9°F); Previous March record: 16.1°C (61.0°F)

Matagami: 23.7°C (74.7°F); Previous March records: Pre-2012: 17.6°C (63.7°F) and 2012: 19.9°C (67.8°F) on March 19

Mont-Joli: 20.0°C (68.0°F); Previous March record: 17.1°C (62.8°F)

Montreal: 23.5°C (74.3°F); Previous March records: Pre-2012: 22.6°C (72.6°F) and 2012: 23.1°C (73.6°F) on March 18

Rivière-du-Loup: 18.9°C (66.0°F); Previous March record: 15.3°C (59.5°F)

Roberval: 23.4°C (74.1°F); Previous March record: 17.0°C (62.6°F)

Val-d'Or: 23.7°C (74.7°F); Previous March records: Pre-2012: 17.6°C (63.7°F) and 2012: 22.1°C (71.8°F) on March 19

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In the midst of what is probably the greatest outbreak of heat in March for the instrument period in the northern U.S. and Canada, more monthly records are again falling in parts of Canada. As of 1 pm, Mont Joli and Roberval in Quebec had already passed the monthly high temperature marks set just yesterday. In Ontario, Wiarton had set a new monthly high temperature record. Wiarton was particularly impressive, coming in with a 26.7°C (80.1°F) reading. At the same time, numerous other Canadian cities, including Montreal, Quebec City, Sudbury, Timmins, and Val d'Or were within striking distance of the monthly records set yesterday.

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At 2 pm, the number of cities setting monthly records had increased. Montreal reached 23.8°C (74.8°F) setting its third monthly high temperature record during the ongoing period of extreme warmth. Quebec City reached 16.3°C (61.3°F), beating its previous monthly record of 15.9°C (60.6°F). Other cities exceeding their monthly record high temperature included Earlton, Matagami, Roberval, Sudbury, Timmins, Wiarton, and Windsor.

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