Quakertown needs snow Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 im doing it here for this area. thx Tom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 hr 90 the other vortex in the western great lakes is a lot further south on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 hr 96 that vortex over the lakes continues to drop south towards the low in the plains....hgts starting to rise on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 hr 102, vortex continues dropping south alot more amplified than 0z last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 the euro is going to pop this storm closer to the coast...possibly phase it but I think you'll see a better outcome on this run the 500 vort is a bit west through 102 and there's a bit more dig in the Lakes vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 the euro is going to pop this storm closer to the coast...possibly phase it but I think you'll see a better outcome on this run It moset definitely looks like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 hr 108 precip building in the southeast, trof continues to be more amplified and vortex is dropping in..this should be good.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 the 500 height is sub 528 on the 12z euro through 108, stronger than 0z and also a bit south (probably 100 miles).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 hr 114 low pressure developing by hatteras, precip breaking out in nc and southern va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 hr 120 broad area of 1008 low pressure just off hse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Euro is looking much better this run! In case it isn't obvious from Tombo's updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 From the limited view I have (not home) it looks like it's going to be close, but no cigar, the phase looks to be occurring just a hair too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 hr 126 broad area of 1004 pressure, looks to be headed just offshore some lgt to mod precip in eastern sc nc ga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 So the first one we are looking at is the 16-17th? Sorry I haven't had the time to follow this. I'm so screwed up with dates since the end of classes/finals coming up/holidays, etc. I'm a bit overloaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 hr 132 sub 996 bout 200 miles east of norfolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 From the limited view I have (not home) it looks like it's going to be close, but no cigar, the phase looks to be occurring just a hair too late. Yep...it's better but not optimal...the 500 isn't digging enough...it ends up trudging east into Ontario instead of dropping over Lake Huron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 looks like coastal areas will get brushed, sne may get hit decently if this can take on a more northerly component to the movement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 hr 138 sub 988 bout 150 miles sw of the bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 hr 144 sne gets brushed, cc does well...storm then retrogrades towards maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 looks like euro is at least ok right now. Models will keep changing till at least 100 hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 so from 12z, we either need that s/w to slow down some, or vortex has to drop down quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 ukie slams us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 UKMET looks impressive.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Hmmm, I'd say that was a mediocre run for us. Glad it's still keying on an east coast low. One thing of note is that it's much faster than other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeCTWX Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 UKMET looks impressive.... A little too close... Doesn't matter though. Just good to see that it's a westward solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 yea heres hr 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Hmmm, I'd say that was a mediocre run for us. Glad it's still keying on an east coast low. One thing of note is that it's much faster than other guidance. Good point its almost a full day ahead of the GFS/GGEM. Seems the ukie is also quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 GGEM- sounds like the euro is similar to this solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 GGEM and Euro are encouraging in terms of the 500mb depiction compared to 00z. The phase occurred a little too late, but better runs compared to last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 GGEM has a boatload of QPF.... And it bombs to 979 mb, get this baby a toward a west shift... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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