Potential winter threats

[Rtd208]

Now we just need it to come further north and west and we would be in business, still plenty of time.

0z ens support the op, though the hr 168 might be closer than 0z, but the distance between the pressures shows prob a good bit of spread

[A-L-E-X]

21 inches for jfk

http://www.meteor.ia...s/gfs3_kjfk.dat

Too bad that run has only a 5 pct chance of verifying lol.

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfs/gfs3_kewr.dat

23.8 for EWR and 24.5 for LGA

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfs/gfs3_kjfk.dat

[A-L-E-X]

0z ens support the op, though the hr 168 might be closer than 12z, but the distance between the pressures shows prob a good bit of spread

they dont show individual panels with the euro ensembles do they?

[tombo82685]

they dont show individual panels with the euro ensembles do they?

they do, but you have to have some big money to get them.

[Ericjcrash]

FWIW WWA in DC/BALT. They got us beat! lol

[Kaner587]

looks closer than 12z which I think is a good sign since 12z OP was further NW. May mean they are coming into better agreement somewhere in the middle or the 12z run was a blip.

[Dark Energy]

Now we just need it to come further north and west and we would be in business, still plenty of time.

Any ensemble is usually flatter than an operational run out in time because the ensembles obviously are run at lower res than the OP versions. The important thing here is that the storm is there to begin with. Now it's just a game of timing the phasing (if that even happens).

[Kaner587]

I think its important to point out that an original concern we had, was the lack of a sufficient STJ s/w. I believe we have put that potential problem to bed as all models indicate a STJ s/w arriving on the pacific coast around day 4--- and now the problem that we would have dealt with all along no matter what the situation, is the timing of the phasing.

Edit: I've been like 2 minutes late with all my posts tonight and I end up saying the same thing as other posters. Oh well I obv agree with your assessment dark energy

[A-L-E-X]

Any ensemble is usually flatter than an operational run out in time because the ensembles obviously are run at lower res than the OP versions.  The important thing here is that the storm is there to begin with.  Now it's just a game of timing the phasing (if that even happens).

Well we have 7 days to iron this out lol.

[nzucker]

I think its important to point out that an original concern we had, was the lack of a sufficient STJ s/w. I believe we have put that potential problem to bed as all models indicate a STJ s/w arriving on the pacific coast around day 4--- and now the problem that we would have dealt with all along no matter what the situation, is the timing of the phasing.

Edit: I've been like 2 minutes late with all my posts tonight and I end up saying the same thing as other posters. Oh well I obv agree with your assessment dark energy

The lack of a sufficient STJ is still a problem though because the energy originating from the Pacific rates to be weaker, which makes timing issues regarding the polar vortex phase extremely important, and that's why we'll see a large variety of solutions from models as they try to determine what longitude the PV will be sitting at when the S/W relays in from the Pacific. It's an extremely delicate situation; if we had a potent STJ, we'd virtually be assured of a good storm with the historic -NAO/-AO.

[Rtd208]

Probably a little less then 7 days, but who's counting. lol

Well we have 7 days to iron this out lol.

[A-L-E-X]

The lack of a sufficient STJ is still a problem though because the energy originating from the Pacific rates to be weaker, which makes timing issues regarding the polar vortex phase extremely important, and that's why we'll see a large variety of solutions from models as they try to determine what longitude the PV will be sitting at when the S/W relays in from the Pacific. It's an extremely delicate situation; if we had a potent STJ, we'd virtually be assured of a good storm with the historic -NAO/-AO.

Yeah, everything is the same as last winter-- even to the day-- except for one major difference-- the strong la nina.

[Kaner587]

The lack of a sufficient STJ is still a problem though because the energy originating from the Pacific rates to be weaker, which makes timing issues regarding the polar vortex phase extremely important, and that's why we'll see a large variety of solutions from models as they try to determine what longitude the PV will be sitting at when the S/W relays in from the Pacific. It's an extremely delicate situation; if we had a potent STJ, we'd virtually be assured of a good storm with the historic -NAO/-AO.

based on everyones analysis I thought that the strength of the s/w was less important than the PV breaking off and phasing in. If the s/w is strong and no phasing, no big storm. Maybe I'm missing something.

[A-L-E-X]

Yeah, everything is the same as last winter-- even to the day-- except for one major difference-- the strong la nina.

Which by the way-- makes this much worse than just another fantasy long range GFS storm.  It makes it a fantasy GFS storm that would have definitely have been a reality last winter.  Talk about torture!  I cant think of anything worse lol.

[Kaner587]

The lack of a sufficient STJ is still a problem though because the energy originating from the Pacific rates to be weaker, which makes timing issues regarding the polar vortex phase extremely important, and that's why we'll see a large variety of solutions from models as they try to determine what longitude the PV will be sitting at when the S/W relays in from the Pacific. It's an extremely delicate situation; if we had a potent STJ, we'd virtually be assured of a good storm with the historic -NAO/-AO.

I just re-read what you said and I think I understand what you're saying but I still don't see how a stronger s/w ensures phasing

[H2Otown_WX]

Which by the way-- makes this much worse than just another fantasy long range GFS storm. It makes it a fantasy GFS storm that would have definitely have been a reality last winter. Talk about torture! I cant think of anything worse lol.

I can...being 15 miles east of people getting 25" of snow last February.

[A-L-E-X]

I can...being 15 miles east of people getting 25" of snow last February.

I was thinking of that one too-- do you mean 2/6? Or 2/26?  I guess you get to pick because someone in our area got screwed in each of those storms. 

[H2Otown_WX]

I was thinking of that one too-- do you mean 2/6? Or 2/26? I guess you get to pick because someone in our area got screwed in each of those storms.

2/26. 2/6 screwed us all lol. Also I got screwed by 2/10.

[nzucker]

based on everyones analysis I thought that the strength of the s/w was less important than the PV breaking off and phasing in. If the s/w is strong and no phasing, no big storm. Maybe I'm missing something.

Well, yes, in this case we don't have a massively strong shortwave or a bowling ball like 2/10 last year that can deliver the storm without a huge PV phase. One of the problems with not having a STJ if that we're relying on a very complex and fragile phase with the PV which needs to be exactly in the right position. We don't have any screaming energy coming down a +PNA meeting up with the STJ, so everything has to be well-oriented for the storm to work. You are correct in your analysis of this specific situation; I'm just saying it might be different if we were still in last year's El Niño as compared to a strong La Niña. This is the reason there's only been one KU event in a strong/moderate La Niña (March 1956). It's really hard to get the +PNA and STJ kicking in a strong La Niña and that's why I'm a bit skeptical that we're looking at a KU event.

[A-L-E-X]

2/26. 2/6 screwed us all lol. Also I got screwed by 2/10.

Oh yeah-- I distinctly remember your area was supposed to jackpot on 2/10 but at the last moment the storm somehow moved south and hit southern areas harder.

2/26 was the anti-new england storm-- its like the storm somehow knew exactly where new england started and as soon as you crossed the border into CT it changed from snow to rain.  Someone should have told it that western CT isnt really part of new england

[A-L-E-X]

Well, yes, in this case we don't have a massively strong shortwave or a bowling ball like 2/10 last year that can deliver the storm without a huge PV phase. One of the problems with not having a STJ if that we're relying on a very complex and fragile phase with the PV which needs to be exactly in the right position. We don't have any screaming energy coming down a +PNA meeting up with the STJ, so everything has to be well-oriented for the storm to work. You are correct in your analysis of this specific situation; I'm just saying it might be different if we were still in last year's El Niño as compared to a strong La Niña. This is the reason there's only been one KU event in a strong/moderate La Niña (March 1956). It's really hard to get the +PNA and STJ kicking in a strong La Niña and that's why I'm a bit skeptical that we're looking at a KU event.

Im convinced that a major snowstorm can occur around here in ANY pattern-- but the problem is the likelihood of it occurring in a pattern like this is much lower than what it was last year.  Last year we had a much larger margin for error.

[Kaner587]

Well, yes, in this case we don't have a massively strong shortwave or a bowling ball like 2/10 last year that can deliver the storm without a huge PV phase. One of the problems with not having a STJ if that we're relying on a very complex and fragile phase with the PV which needs to be exactly in the right position. We don't have any screaming energy coming down a +PNA meeting up with the STJ, so everything has to be well-oriented for the storm to work. You are correct in your analysis of this specific situation; I'm just saying it might be different if we were still in last year's El Niño as compared to a strong La Niña. This is the reason there's only been one KU event in a strong/moderate La Niña (March 1956). It's really hard to get the +PNA and STJ kicking in a strong La Niña and that's why I'm a bit skeptical that we're looking at a KU event.

gotcha, and now I see that you weren't necessarily disagreeing just pointing out an inherent problem with nina winters, as well as a potential caveat to this specific situation, and ones to follow.

[nzucker]

gotcha, and now I see that you weren't necessarily disagreeing just pointing out an inherent problem with nina winters, as well as a potential caveat to this specific situation, and ones to follow.

Yeah I totally agree that the main deal in this storm threat is not the strength of the s/w but the PV positioning. Models are going to be all over the place with this feature. We also would like a little more amplification from the western ridge so this doesn't slide out to sea and really ensures a good deepening of the 500mb low.

[Kaner587]

<br>Yeah I totally agree that the main deal in this storm threat is not the strength of the s/w but the PV positioning. Models are going to be all over the place with this feature. We also would like a little more amplification from the western ridge so this doesn't slide out to sea and really ensures a good deepening of the 500mb low.<br>

<br><br>thats why the 00z GFS was so precious it just made everything look so easy and perfect haha. The thing I do like about this threat is the tendency most models have had to break the PV off into two pieces. With that gargantuan block its forced to drop south once breaking off. Such a classic pre-KU event occurrence (and obv subsequent phasing into the s/w). On the other hand it is a distinct possibility this either doesn't happen or happens late a la 00z GGEM and EURO.

[A-L-E-X]

thats why the 00z GFS was so precious it just made everything look so easy and perfect haha

and thats why I saved the bufkit output from that.  I just hope that simulated snowfall isnt the only snow we get to see

[tmagan]

KMA 00Z Hour 168

[H2Otown_WX]

Oh yeah-- I distinctly remember your area was supposed to jackpot on 2/10 but at the last moment the storm somehow moved south and hit southern areas harder.

2/26 was the anti-new england storm-- its like the storm somehow knew exactly where new england started and as soon as you crossed the border into CT it changed from snow to rain. Someone should have told it that western CT isnt really part of new england

Yeah, forecasts busted badly for 2/10. They called for 10-16" and I got 3.5".

[Voyager]

http://www.meteor.ia...s/gfs3_kewr.dat

23.8 for EWR and 24.5 for LGA

http://www.meteor.ia...s/gfs3_kjfk.dat

And only 7 for ABE.

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfs/gfs3_kabe.dat

[Edge Weather]

6Z GFS still has the storm, may not be as robust, but it is still there at 162 hrs. has a sub-988mb low off the DelMarVa

[Edge Weather]

sub 984 off the NJ coast at 168 hrs, pummeling NYC and S New England