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The PHL/NYC Medium Range Thread - Part 2


am19psu

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I don't know how many bullets I can dodge with these constant events. My wife is due to give birth on 1/19.. Everytime we get a big storm, I'm worried she's gonna go into labor.. and now, wouldn't you know it.. another one, pretty much right on her due date.. :popcorn: Get the popcorn ready.. it's like a soap opera.

BTW.. I'm surprised temps so warm with the high placement and track of the storm. I think it would be a wet snow just inland.

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This has all the making of a rain/sleet mess, then a cold air dump behind. Hopefully, the PV gets in a better position

Yeah, I've seen this movie before. Snow on the front end quickly changing to sleet/ZR. Then changing to rain closer to coast, maybe staying with ZR interior if CAD is good enough. Change back to snow for a last gasp 1/2" when everybody thought (hoped) we'd get 4" on the backend.

Yeah, I saw that movie 300 or 400 times in my life. That's what this setup is screaming to me.

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Per euro its ice quickly over to rain, then maybe a brief peirod of frozen on the backend. What screws it up is there is an oho valley low also that initially pumps winds from the south and torches the bl, while the coastal is getting going.

for what its worth JB says cutter with warm air up the coast.. 40's maybe 50

major cold to follow

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What i don't like is the whole ridge trof axis with this next storm as modelled. When ever you get a pv dropping south into central canada sending a huge cold push into the heart of the country, it doesn't bode well. Usually with that type there is to much energy on the back side, it phases in and in most cases it sends a storm cutting.They go negative tilt way to early with the positioning. The ridge axis out west doesn't help because its centered on seattle instead of boise. Of course this can all be negated with blocking.

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This reminds me so much of the system we just had, minus the cold air. If the system speeds up a tad, and the high is tad further west, perhaps it helps to lock in the cold air more and we could be dealing with a prolonged ice storm? At this point anything is better than 50's and heavy rain over a thick snowpack. Would be big potential for flooding.

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The fact that we are losing the -NAO signal and there is no 50/50 progged on the Euro, this favors a rain coast/snow inland scenario. After that hopefully the robust +PNA pattern develops and we can get the Atlantic Blocking to ressert itself. This would favor another big snowstorm Late Jan/Early Feb....

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850 temps are at or above 0C in ABE for the majority of the event on the 12z GFS. Same for AVP and even MPO.

On the EURO the 850 line reaches just the NW borders of Berks, Lehigh and Northampton at 150 before crashing back to PHL at 156, precip does still fall after (very light), oh and the freezing line is well north AVP to MDT (not that that really matters this far out.

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This reminds me so much of the system we just had, minus the cold air. If the system speeds up a tad, and the high is tad further west, perhaps it helps to lock in the cold air more and we could be dealing with a prolonged ice storm? At this point anything is better than 50's and heavy rain over a thick snowpack. Would be big potential for flooding.

There is no guidance anywhere showing 50s and rain.

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From Upton's afternoon update...Recognizes ice and flooding threat

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --THE FIRST WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM IS THE COLD FRONT

ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS BY TO THE

NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THERE IS FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THAT

ONE. IT STILL APPEARS TO CARRY ONLY MODEST MOISTURE WITH IT, AND SO

WE CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS

ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA.

MODEL SPREAD IS MAINTAINED WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM, AND SO THE

FORECAST BEGINS TO LEAN TOWARD ENSEMBLES. SAID SYSTEM CONTINUES TO

BE A LOW THAT THE GEFS TAKES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY TO

JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE OBSERVATION FROM

THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECASTER STILL APPLIES: THAT AS THE SYSTEM

APPROACHES AND THEN BEGINS TO PASS TO THE NORTHWEST, THIS TRACK

WOULD RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SOME TYPE OF

SNOW TO RAIN SCENARIO NORTHWEST THAT MIGHT INCLUDE A PERIOD OF

FREEZING RAIN. IT IS QUITE EARLY, BUT PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE

THAT THE STRONG EXITING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOES NOT BECOME

ENTRENCHED. IF THIS WERE TRUE, IT WOULD LESSEN THE CONCERN OVER A

THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT ICING. FOR NOW, WE DO NOT MENTION FREEZING

RAIN IN THE FORECAST. WE NOTE THAT THE SYSTEM MAY CARRY A DECENT

AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH IT, AND THAT MAY BECOME OUR MAIN CONCERN

WITH TIME.

TEMPERATURES START AROUND OR SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL INTO MONDAY, AND

THEN WOULD RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BULK OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD

GIVEN THE PRESENT FORECAST PATH OF THE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.-- End Changed Discussion --

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I disagree a bit with you. Anything is preferable to an ice storm (especially a prolonged one), due to the hazardous driving, downed trees and powerlines that result from ice storms.

This reminds me so much of the system we just had, minus the cold air. If the system speeds up a tad, and the high is tad further west, perhaps it helps to lock in the cold air more and we could be dealing with a prolonged ice storm? At this point anything is better than 50's and heavy rain over a thick snowpack. Would be big potential for flooding.

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What i don't like is the whole ridge trof axis with this next storm as modelled. When ever you get a pv dropping south into central canada sending a huge cold push into the heart of the country, it doesn't bode well. Usually with that type there is to much energy on the back side, it phases in and in most cases it sends a storm cutting.They go negative tilt way to early with the positioning. The ridge axis out west doesn't help because its centered on seattle instead of boise. Of course this can all be negated with blocking.

Not optimistic about this one.

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Lot's of time between now and then, but CTP's current forecast for Tamaqua starts as snow, goes to a mix, and then finishes as snow showers.

Monday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

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Lot's of time between now and then, but CTP's current forecast for Tamaqua starts as snow, goes to a mix, and then finishes as snow showers.

Monday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

i think your in the best spot as of now. Greatest potential for ice with this storm.

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I'm in the far northeastern corner of PA at an elevation of over 1800 ft. We have a chance with this next storm but I think it will even be a close call here. Like all the storms this winter, they have been fun to watch and this one will be to.

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ahhh nice, got family in susquhanna county just south of montrose.

Nice area. I live in a town called Mt. Cobb right on the Wayne County, Lackawanna County line. I own an Ice Cream Shop there. If you ever come through while visiting family between April and October, stop by for some free ice cream. The shop is called That Shake Place.

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Nice area. I live in a town called Mt. Cobb right on the Wayne County, Lackawanna County line. I own an Ice Cream Shop there. If you ever come through while visiting family between April and October, stop by for some free ice cream. The shop is called That Shake Place.

ALright definetely. We usually head up in late august, good bass fishing time of the year lol

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