tornadojay Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I don't know how many bullets I can dodge with these constant events. My wife is due to give birth on 1/19.. Everytime we get a big storm, I'm worried she's gonna go into labor.. and now, wouldn't you know it.. another one, pretty much right on her due date.. Get the popcorn ready.. it's like a soap opera. BTW.. I'm surprised temps so warm with the high placement and track of the storm. I think it would be a wet snow just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 This has all the making of a rain/sleet mess, then a cold air dump behind. Hopefully, the PV gets in a better position Yeah, I've seen this movie before. Snow on the front end quickly changing to sleet/ZR. Then changing to rain closer to coast, maybe staying with ZR interior if CAD is good enough. Change back to snow for a last gasp 1/2" when everybody thought (hoped) we'd get 4" on the backend. Yeah, I saw that movie 300 or 400 times in my life. That's what this setup is screaming to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Per euro its ice quickly over to rain, then maybe a brief peirod of frozen on the backend. What screws it up is there is an oho valley low also that initially pumps winds from the south and torches the bl, while the coastal is getting going. for what its worth JB says cutter with warm air up the coast.. 40's maybe 50 major cold to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 for what its worth JB says cutter with warm air up the coast.. 40's maybe 50 major cold to follow I guess he needs more subscribers in the GL states or the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 What i don't like is the whole ridge trof axis with this next storm as modelled. When ever you get a pv dropping south into central canada sending a huge cold push into the heart of the country, it doesn't bode well. Usually with that type there is to much energy on the back side, it phases in and in most cases it sends a storm cutting.They go negative tilt way to early with the positioning. The ridge axis out west doesn't help because its centered on seattle instead of boise. Of course this can all be negated with blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 This reminds me so much of the system we just had, minus the cold air. If the system speeds up a tad, and the high is tad further west, perhaps it helps to lock in the cold air more and we could be dealing with a prolonged ice storm? At this point anything is better than 50's and heavy rain over a thick snowpack. Would be big potential for flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The fact that we are losing the -NAO signal and there is no 50/50 progged on the Euro, this favors a rain coast/snow inland scenario. After that hopefully the robust +PNA pattern develops and we can get the Atlantic Blocking to ressert itself. This would favor another big snowstorm Late Jan/Early Feb.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 been a memorable winter so far..even if we don't get another major storm..a major blizzard and a big snowstorm in a 3 week span is unreal..great period of winter weather!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I didn't look at the whole profile, but the 850 0C line is basically west of I-95 up through NYC. 850 temps are at or above 0C in ABE for the majority of the event on the 12z GFS. Same for AVP and even MPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 850 temps are at or above 0C in ABE for the majority of the event on the 12z GFS. Same for AVP and even MPO. On the EURO the 850 line reaches just the NW borders of Berks, Lehigh and Northampton at 150 before crashing back to PHL at 156, precip does still fall after (very light), oh and the freezing line is well north AVP to MDT (not that that really matters this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 This reminds me so much of the system we just had, minus the cold air. If the system speeds up a tad, and the high is tad further west, perhaps it helps to lock in the cold air more and we could be dealing with a prolonged ice storm? At this point anything is better than 50's and heavy rain over a thick snowpack. Would be big potential for flooding. There is no guidance anywhere showing 50s and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 There is no guidance anywhere showing 50s and rain. I didn't say their was but their is guidance suggesting rain and I heard a few mets earlier mention possible 40's-50's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 From Upton's afternoon update...Recognizes ice and flooding threat LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --THE FIRST WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM IS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THERE IS FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THAT ONE. IT STILL APPEARS TO CARRY ONLY MODEST MOISTURE WITH IT, AND SO WE CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA. MODEL SPREAD IS MAINTAINED WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM, AND SO THE FORECAST BEGINS TO LEAN TOWARD ENSEMBLES. SAID SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE A LOW THAT THE GEFS TAKES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY TO JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE OBSERVATION FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECASTER STILL APPLIES: THAT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND THEN BEGINS TO PASS TO THE NORTHWEST, THIS TRACK WOULD RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SOME TYPE OF SNOW TO RAIN SCENARIO NORTHWEST THAT MIGHT INCLUDE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. IT IS QUITE EARLY, BUT PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STRONG EXITING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOES NOT BECOME ENTRENCHED. IF THIS WERE TRUE, IT WOULD LESSEN THE CONCERN OVER A THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT ICING. FOR NOW, WE DO NOT MENTION FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST. WE NOTE THAT THE SYSTEM MAY CARRY A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH IT, AND THAT MAY BECOME OUR MAIN CONCERN WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES START AROUND OR SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL INTO MONDAY, AND THEN WOULD RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BULK OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD GIVEN THE PRESENT FORECAST PATH OF THE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I disagree a bit with you. Anything is preferable to an ice storm (especially a prolonged one), due to the hazardous driving, downed trees and powerlines that result from ice storms. This reminds me so much of the system we just had, minus the cold air. If the system speeds up a tad, and the high is tad further west, perhaps it helps to lock in the cold air more and we could be dealing with a prolonged ice storm? At this point anything is better than 50's and heavy rain over a thick snowpack. Would be big potential for flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 12 Z ECM means Looks to me like a set up at this point for Ice to rain in the big cities and points south and east... Inland snows & Ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 What i don't like is the whole ridge trof axis with this next storm as modelled. When ever you get a pv dropping south into central canada sending a huge cold push into the heart of the country, it doesn't bode well. Usually with that type there is to much energy on the back side, it phases in and in most cases it sends a storm cutting.They go negative tilt way to early with the positioning. The ridge axis out west doesn't help because its centered on seattle instead of boise. Of course this can all be negated with blocking. Not optimistic about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Not optimistic about this one. As of now, no. At least it will give you a break from being a prognosticator lol. Plus, your model of choice, FIM, is very bearish on the oppurtunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Lot's of time between now and then, but CTP's current forecast for Tamaqua starts as snow, goes to a mix, and then finishes as snow showers. Monday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday: A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Tuesday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 For your viewing pleasure, Nam at 84 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Lot's of time between now and then, but CTP's current forecast for Tamaqua starts as snow, goes to a mix, and then finishes as snow showers. Monday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday: A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Tuesday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 40%. i think your in the best spot as of now. Greatest potential for ice with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ru89 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I'm in the far northeastern corner of PA at an elevation of over 1800 ft. We have a chance with this next storm but I think it will even be a close call here. Like all the storms this winter, they have been fun to watch and this one will be to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I'm in the far northeastern corner of PA at an elevation of over 1800 ft. We have a chance with this next storm but I think it will even be a close call here. Like all the storms this winter, they have been fun to watch and this one will be to. pike county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 i think your in the best spot as of now. Greatest potential for ice with this storm. I'm sure it'll flip and flop a few times, but at least there's something on the table for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ru89 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 pike county? Wayne county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I'm sure it'll flip and flop a few times, but at least there's something on the table for now. flip flop? ya think? hope Elk gets all snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Wayne county. ahhh nice, got family in susquhanna county just south of montrose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I didn't say their was but their is guidance suggesting rain and I heard a few mets earlier mention possible 40's-50's 40-45 probably would not obliterate the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 do you guys see any potential for the Jersey Shore to pick up some snow with the latest GFS models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ru89 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 ahhh nice, got family in susquhanna county just south of montrose. Nice area. I live in a town called Mt. Cobb right on the Wayne County, Lackawanna County line. I own an Ice Cream Shop there. If you ever come through while visiting family between April and October, stop by for some free ice cream. The shop is called That Shake Place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Nice area. I live in a town called Mt. Cobb right on the Wayne County, Lackawanna County line. I own an Ice Cream Shop there. If you ever come through while visiting family between April and October, stop by for some free ice cream. The shop is called That Shake Place. ALright definetely. We usually head up in late august, good bass fishing time of the year lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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