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Hurricane Irene and the mid-Atlantic (Pre-game show)


Ian

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Ian, when does GFS MOS come out? I want to compare the winds... wat was the 00z NAM MOS winds? 43 kts?

it's updated

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmav.pl?sta=KDCA

same as earlier pretty much.. never gets past upper 20s.

i want to say the nam could pick up low level winds better and that the gfs #s are partly related to the cutoff at the end comparatively. but they do seem more reasonable.

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One thing about Isabel, at least from what I remember, the wind-field didn't seem to be quite as expansive as we have with Irene, (Although it did have a big one) and where Isabel tracked it's closest (to us) in South-Central VA, it was over land/weaker than Irene will be when it passes it's closest (to us).

Definitely not saying Irene will beat Isabel in winds, after all we're on the back quadrant, but it could end up somewhat similar if models do not trend east.

I vaguely remember you are right about this. I also vaguely remember that Isabel's winds overall did not end up as strong as had been predicted, despite all the tree damage. I also vaguely remember that there was far less rain than had been predicted. I think the forecasts were for like 5 to 10 inches, and most of DC got only a couple inches, but it was heavier in the Valley, as that summary noted.

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Yes, but I always figure they are overdone.

But when I read that summary, we have been fairly saturated lately -- seems like a lot of Isabel damage occurred from trees falling down cause of 50 mph winds blowing on extremely moist soil from earlier storms. Probably close to a similar situation now. But I imagine a lot of our old, dying trees have already been cleared out, after Snowmaggeden, those two severe storm last summer, the wet snowstorm this past January, and that big windstorm we had this spring.

Still, interesting, though. Knew Isabel made landfall in NC as well, but didn't realize it was also 100 mph at landfall, just like Irene is. But we are on west side for this one. For Isabel, we were on east.

Tough to say snowmageddon will help us - the trees have a lot more area (leaves) to be pushed on now.

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NAM is around 4.45" at DCA.....maybe overdone?..hard to say where the back edge will park itself....I think QPF guidance should be taken very broadly

i like its idea of some heavy totals in the band to the nw of the low but i dunno about the overall orientation. hard to buy into it totally but the euro is in the ballpark.

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it's updated

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmav.pl?sta=KDCA

same as earlier pretty much.. never gets past upper 20s.

i want to say the nam could pick up low level winds better and that the gfs #s are partly related to the cutoff at the end comparatively. but they do seem more reasonable.

30 mph sustained isnt bad. Prob would take the middle, 35 sustained for a lil while

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It's stunning that basically every model sends the center Irene within a dozen miles of Manhattan on either side. Talk about likely dodging a bullet. If this thing would have blown up into a Cat 4 today, and took that track, it really could have been a near catastrophe up there.

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Tropical Storm Warning Re-Issued

AS HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE

FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH.

MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR TO OLDER MOBILE HOMES. RESIDENTS SHOULD

MOVE LOOSE ITEMS INDOORS...SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND OUTDOOR

FURNITURE...AS THEY WILL BE BLOWN AROUND. NEWLY PLANTED OR YOUNG

TREES AND SHRUBS MAY BE UPROOTED IF NOT SECURED PROPERLY. ISOLATED

POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

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euro still hits us good.. 4"+ line about i95 (which may be a hair east).. bends back a bit northwest across northern md.

Yup... 24 hr location is somewhere near Norfolk... 48 is in NH... CoastalWx said landfall was just east of NYC and looks to scrape NJ coast... wonder where hr 30/36 location points are

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Yup... 24 hr location is somewhere near Norfolk... 48 is in NH... CoastalWx said landfall was just east of NYC and looks to scrape NJ coast... wonder where hr 30/36 location points are

looks like right around southern Delaware and then central nj coast

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LWX Increased wind gusts again, probably in response to the 06z GFS coming west with Irene. NAM winds are less which makes sense (50mph sustained is way too high).

NWS raised my winds but lowered the gusts a tad. Was 21-25 with gusts to 48. Now 26-33 with gusts to 46. Most significant is the adding of the phrase "some t'storms could be severe" and the reduction to rainfall totals. Now going with max of 1.25 for my area (was closer to 2-3" last night).

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