weatherwiz Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 22 yr olds that have no drivers license or car Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 no surprise really based on the radar sig but still...nice bwer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 LOL.. I saw most of those that night when i got home. Folks that join..I'd suggest following Ryan..and me * TOOOOOORRRRCCCHHHHH!!!* *17 more chipmunks dead* *LESCO or go home!* *12-18 with lollis to 24" *Overnight lows of 80F* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Here's a quote by Tom Grazulis straight from his New England Tornadoes book (copyright 2000) "In my opinion the greater risk lies in the Springfield area. Note the obvious clustering of events in that area. Springfield, may be the "most overdue" for a major tornado striking a large New England city. If not Springfield, then it's probably Hartford." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Here's a quote by Tom Grazulis straight from his New England Tornadoes book (copyright 2000) "In my opinion the greater risk lies in the Springfield area. Note the obvious clustering of events in that area. Springfield, may be the "most overdue" for a major tornado striking a large New England city. If not Springfield, then it's probably Hartford." I heard about that from a co-worker. It's not hard to see given that area is one of the more severe prone areas in this state. It's interesting that this event prior to Wednesday aftn was not really even mentioned as having the potential to be something significant. I heard local mets poo-poo'ing this event the night before, and even that morning...there was no real mention of any enhanced wording of the potential. I know on here we kept mentioning the caveat of things like morning convection screwing this up and not knowing how high dews would get...but we all mentioned that the pattern fit the classic siggy severe events in SNE. Situational awareness plays a big role....when you see those lapse rates and shear indicated..probably a good idea to at least have that in the back of your mind. Just because the 18z NAM came through dry...it doesn't mean we don't have the potential for tstms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 I heard about that from a co-worker. It's not hard to see given that area is one of the more severe prone areas in this state. It's interesting that this event prior to Wednesday aftn was not really even mentioned as having the potential to be something significant. I heard local mets poo-poo'ing this event the night before, and even that morning...there was no real mention of any enhanced wording of the potential. I know on here we kept mentioning the caveat of things like morning convection screwing this up and not knowing how high dews would get...but we all mentioned that the pattern fit the classic siggy severe events in SNE. Situational awareness plays a big role....when you see those lapse rates and shear indicated..probably a good idea to at least have that in the back of your mind. Just because the 18z NAM came through dry...it doesn't mean we don't have the potential for tstms. Somewhat true, but Elliot Abrhams ( one of the stickliers for any interesting commentary) did mention strong, gusty thunderstorms...coming from him, to most would indicate major tornado outbreak. ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Somewhat true, but Elliot Abrhams ( one of the stickliers for any interesting commentary) did mention strong, gusty thunderstorms...coming from him, to most would indicate major tornado outbreak. ;D I never even heard that coming from most. I guess I was just surprise that even during Wednesday morning, nobody really sounded too concerned, given the airmass overhead. The only people really mentioning it was SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Somewhat true, but Elliot Abrhams ( one of the stickliers for any interesting commentary) did mention strong, gusty thunderstorms...coming from him, to most would indicate major tornado outbreak. ;D He used to be more balls to wall... seems much more muted than sevral years ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 He used to be more balls to wall... seems much more muted than sevral years ago... how long ago was that? in his 20s ? lol Ever since I can remember hearing him on WBZ radio, at least 5 or 10 years, he's been extremely conservative and downplays everything even in the face of convincing evidence otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 I never even heard that coming from most. I guess I was just surprise that even during Wednesday morning, nobody really sounded too concerned, given the airmass overhead. The only people really mentioning it was SPC. Unfortunately it is hard these days, to give any type of warning without the public overreacting if/ when nothing happens. Then you have a dangerous, complacent public that will not listen even if there was the ability to semi-accurately predict such events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdmwx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 A lot of good stuff mentioned so far in this thread. As Ekster stated earlier, the shear vectors were almost perfectly orthogonal to the initiating boundary, keeping storms discrete from Maine down to southeastern New York. You can see shear vectors here (around the time the Springfield storm was approaching Sturbridge) are WNW or NW, versus the prefrontal trough being SW to NE oriented. Toss in the added effects of vorticity stretching and locally backed flow and you have some classic, discrete supercells in southern New England. We saw multiple supercells rapidly develop mesos in the Westfield area, so there was definitely some kind of local effect going on there. I think the combination of the elevation change stretching the updraft such that the mid level mesos tightened up and the low level wind funneling up the valley providing enhanced helicity for the low level rotation helped in tornadogenesis. In fact, taking a look at the hi-res terrain maps on AWIPS, there are three north-south "valleys" in the areas where the tornadic signatures seemed to cycle up. The obvious being the Connecticut River Valley, but there are also two subtle changes in elevation south of Monson (and could argue for another near Brimfield), and again near Southbridge. After reading about the potential enhancement due to the CT Valley, I also wondered about the valley here in Monson. The tornado did seem to get a bit thinner as it descended into the valley and got a good deal wider later on, as it rose towards Brimfield. I live in that little valley. Where the now-condemned town hall is located is about 370 ft, while on either side elevations range from 800-1200 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weather01089 Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 After reading about the potential enhancement due to the CT Valley, I also wondered about the valley here in Monson. The tornado did seem to get a bit thinner as it descended into the valley and got a good deal wider later on, as it rose towards Brimfield. I live in that little valley. Where the now-condemned town hall is located is about 370 ft, while on either side elevations range from 800-1200 ft. There might just be something to that. That area in West Springfield this hit was hit in 1923 by a strong EF2 that had a short path, a little more WNW to ESE, but less than a couple blocks at this one. In the 1970's, another came along the same path, but only an EF0 to 1. It overturned some railroad cars in the conrail yard off of union st. All 3 hit within a few square mile area. The EF1 never came near any houses fortunately. The 1923 event lifted just on the Springfield side of the river after witnesses reported quite a commotion in the river like this recent one did. In Springfield however during this event, this tornado came down a hill into a "bowl" like area, and widened considerably at the bottom. That was off of Island Pond Rd. It narrowed back up a bit after that for a while. The mesoanalysis by the way showed a bullseye from like the CT river to Worcester, stopping north of Northampton, and didnt go into CT much. That along with the cape, the perfect timing, the instability due to lack of cover like was said, all lined that up in MA. Of course the strongest cell was the furthest south one, which had unimpeded inflow and no competition to the south. And yes the EML!! Great paper MLE. Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weather01089 Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 There might just be something to that. That area in West Springfield this hit was hit in 1923 by a strong EF2 that had a short path, a little more WNW to ESE, but less than a couple blocks at this one. In the 1970's, another came along the same path, but only an EF0 to 1. It overturned some railroad cars in the conrail yard off of union st. All 3 hit within a few square mile area. The EF1 never came near any houses fortunately. The 1923 event lifted just on the Springfield side of the river after witnesses reported quite a commotion in the river like this recent one did. In Springfield however during this event, this tornado came down a hill into a "bowl" like area, and widened considerably at the bottom. That was off of Island Pond Rd. It narrowed back up a bit after that for a while. The mesoanalysis by the way showed a bullseye from like the CT river to Worcester, stopping north of Northampton, and didnt go into CT much. That along with the cape, the perfect timing, the instability due to lack of cover like was said, all lined that up in MA. Of course the strongest cell was the furthest south one, which had unimpeded inflow and no competition to the south. And yes the EML!! Great paper MLE. Ray I missed a word, the bullseye Im referring to was in the helicity parameter. Hit 500 in that area, very uncommon in the NE. Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Anyone giving a talk already on this event at the conference? I was thinking about throwing something together for the lightning round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Anyone giving a talk already on this event at the conference? I was thinking about throwing something together for the lightning round. I asked someone to ask Randy to see if they wanted me to put something together. Already have a PP show with the survey photos, but had to keep it short for the Museum of Science on 6/11. Bill Babcock also has a really good show put together with radar and satellite loops, including GS2Analyst stuff. I do want to put a comprehensive show together. I don't know now if I should commit, though. I'm not even sure I'm going now. Long story short, my mother is under hospice care at the nursing home. Her time is short, but not sure when. I really want to go, especially since I already have my room and ticket paid for, but we'll see... Let me know if you are doing something. --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 I am sorry to hear about your mother. There are always other conferences Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 I asked someone to ask Randy to see if they wanted me to put something together. Already have a PP show with the survey photos, but had to keep it short for the Museum of Science on 6/11. Bill Babcock also has a really good show put together with radar and satellite loops, including GS2Analyst stuff. I do want to put a comprehensive show together. I don't know now if I should commit, though. I'm not even sure I'm going now. Long story short, my mother is under hospice care at the nursing home. Her time is short, but not sure when. I really want to go, especially since I already have my room and ticket paid for, but we'll see... Let me know if you are doing something. --Turtle Sorry to hear that Eleanor. Randy put me in the lightning round for a talk on the tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weather01089 Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 After reading about the potential enhancement due to the CT Valley, I also wondered about the valley here in Monson. The tornado did seem to get a bit thinner as it descended into the valley and got a good deal wider later on, as it rose towards Brimfield. I live in that little valley. Where the now-condemned town hall is located is about 370 ft, while on either side elevations range from 800-1200 ft. Well one thing to note, the infamous cell actually got going good over West Granville, at relatively high elevation. We did receive a report of some damage in the woods but havent found it yet, it went over a very remote area. The actual touchdown of note was on the downslope just after Granville in the west end of Westfield. (Colony Rd Area). Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weather01089 Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 I asked someone to ask Randy to see if they wanted me to put something together. Already have a PP show with the survey photos, but had to keep it short for the Museum of Science on 6/11. Bill Babcock also has a really good show put together with radar and satellite loops, including GS2Analyst stuff. I do want to put a comprehensive show together. I don't know now if I should commit, though. I'm not even sure I'm going now. Long story short, my mother is under hospice care at the nursing home. Her time is short, but not sure when. I really want to go, especially since I already have my room and ticket paid for, but we'll see... Let me know if you are doing something. --Turtle Wow, hope all goes well Eleanor. Our thoughts are with you. Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.