am19psu Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 12z Euro seems to show a tropical storm into the panhandle by 48 hours I doubt it is a tropical storm with only one closed 1011mb isobar, but it's certainly developing it more strongly than I was expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 12z Euro seems to show a tropical storm into the panhandle by 48 hours That's a stretch...pun intended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 That's a stretch...pun intended. What are you using for MJO phase forecasts, and if it isn't the CPC site, do you have a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 The Euro likes the Yucatan as well with the TW E of the Windward Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Thanks for the clarification. In any regard, it is the strongest run yet I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 What are you using for MJO phase forecasts, and if it isn't the CPC site, do you have a link? Plus the CPC site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 The tropical wave east of the Islands looks more interesting today. Still low in latitude though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 The tropical wave east of the Islands looks more interesting today. Still low in latitude though Once the GOM upper low shifts west, ridging expands across the rest of the Caribbean. This thing's running into SA and then might get a few hours over water at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Once the GOM upper low shifts west, ridging expands across the rest of the Caribbean. This thing's running into SA and then might get a few hours over water at most. The best shot has always been in the Western Caribbean/BOC, but I am surprised it looks this organized today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Really too bad it's at such a low latitude. The circulation is well stacked, with max UL divergence directly overhead. Not much shear in the neighborhood ... it should really only get better before making "landfall" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 The best shot has always been in the Western Caribbean/BOC, but I am surprised it looks this organized today. Not sure if it will get there, but we'll see. Maybe more development early will help take it poleward a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 From the afternoon Caribbean Narrative: PER MODEL GUIDANCE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS TO LIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST USA THROUGH 54/60 HRS...WHERE IT IS TO ESTABLISH A FOOTHOLD. THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE...MEANWHILE...IS TO GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGE IS TO SETTLE OVER PUERTO RICO/USVI LATER DURING THE WEEKEND. AS THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE PUSHES EAST...AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LIFTS AWAY...THE TUTT WILL THEN YIELD TO THE EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN. THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING/SATURDAY MORNING IT WILL RELOCATE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WHILE STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN WHAT MODELS PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Plus the CPC site Thanks. If it really is cyclical, it would be back in 6 or 8 weeks, nearer the prime time of the season, no? And again in October for a final Caribbean peak, or is that gross oversimplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 It looks like 96L might be trying to take on some subtropical characteristics. That might make it slightly more resilient to the shear ongoing over the best low level vorticity. Its also worth noting the the ECWMF was actually the model that best handled the development of more focused low level vorticity yesterday in the Gulf of Mexico. The NAM was keying on a feature farther east in the Atlantic. This is the 48 hour forecast from the 00z run last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Thanks. If it really is cyclical, it would be back in 6 or 8 weeks, nearer the prime time of the season, no? And again in October for a final Caribbean peak, or is that gross oversimplification. Empirical propagation would say so... I think the real MJO pulse is a bit dampened, and it's been artificially enhanced by other factors in the models... but at least the last week of July and the first two weeks of August will probably not be enhanced by the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Empirical propagation would say so... I think the real MJO pulse is a bit dampened, and it's been artificially enhanced by other factors in the models... but at least the last week of July and the first two weeks of August will probably not be enhanced by the MJO. Agree on all counts, not that you need my endorsement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 It is supposed to be slow in July. With more than a little luck, that wave passing 10ºE could be in the Chesapeake or DelMarVa and running NNW around July 22nd. Not favored, but I am always glass half full optimistic. Databuoy off Virginia Beach is 25.4º and has over two weeks to warm further, Frying Pan Shoals is 27.5º. Not probable, but not impossible. Update. All a matter of timing the next EC trough, if this actually develops as the model forecasts. I think it would slip under the one near 60º. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 It looks like 96L might be trying to take on some subtropical characteristics. That might make it slightly more resilient to the shear ongoing over the best low level vorticity. Its also worth noting the the ECWMF was actually the model that best handled the development of more focused low level vorticity yesterday in the Gulf of Mexico. The NAM was keying on a feature farther east in the Atlantic. like a drunk dryin out http://www.esl.lsu.edu/home/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 FWIW If it comes back around late August, no worries. Quality has a quantity all its own, Edit to add- crawls, doesn't in in that forecast? I posted the 180 day OLR earlier and noted it doesn't change as much as I'd expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 If it comes back around late August, no worries. Quality has a quantity all its own, Edit to add- crawls, doesn't in in that forecast? I posted the 180 day OLR earlier and noted it doesn't change as much as I'd expect. Yeah, it doesn't really make a difference whether or not July has any real activity. Doesn't surprise me at all that it's slow. Been doing this for 12 years now. August should be a fun month if this season doesn't go 2006 on us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 00z ECWMF shows an area of concentrated vorticity coinciding with a robust tropical wave that recently emerged off Africa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 The TW near the Windward Islands was dropped in the TWO, but the HPC did mention the feature... A FEATURE /WESTWARD MOVING SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN THE TROPICS AND SUBTROPICS/ WAS KEPT ABOARD PER YESTERDAYS 17Z COORDINATION CALL WITH NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 I hate to switch things back to the far East Atlantic, but there is quite a impressive MCV from the most recent tropical wave to emerge off the African continent. I recently read up about the effect the Guinea Highlands have on emerging tropical waves, helping to provide the initial low level vorticity that sparks warm core cyclogenesis. It certainly seems to be an influence here! Several papers by Berry and Thorncroft (2005) and Hopsch et al. (2010) show the influence this region might have on tropical cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 I hate to switch things back to the far East Atlantic, but there is quite a impressive MCV from the most recent tropical wave to emerge off the African continent. I recently read up about the effect the Guinea Highlands have on emerging tropical waves, helping to provide the initial low level vorticity that sparks warm core cyclogenesis. It certainly seems to be an influence here! Several papers by Berry and Thorncroft (2005) and Hopsch et al. (2010) show the influence this region might have on tropical cyclogenesis. Thats the disturbance I posted about 3 and 4 days ago, last best shot at a Mid-Atlantic storm around July 22nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 While things are slow, I'll watch the pot that doesn't boil, just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Guess I'm missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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