TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Just as I type that the mesoanalysis updated and things got a bit more unstable It's probably going to be really hard to get any severe today...we'll see a few reports but there really isn't much to get the storms to acquire strong enough updrafts. I think any reports we see will be wind and no hail reports (maybe pea) I think people are just humbled by whats going on out on the plains.. enjoy the weather we have its the only weather you got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Sounds like the typical marginal threat here...or even worse. Probably a few popcorn storms from the sfc heating, but hard to get any of them severe. Yup... in fact this event may be a bit more marginal than usual lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 I think people are just humbled by whats going on out on the plains.. enjoy the weather we have its the only weather you got Yeah, they've just been getting destroyed and the pattern is not really going to get quiet anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Another PDS tornado watch possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Too many debris clouds..move along ..nothing to see today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I'm just looking towards Friday! I looked at your thread for Friday...seems like a stretch to me. We need to build significant heat in here, or at least to NY/PA to bring the damage. I'm looking forward to today...HighmofoRisk for the Plains. Much easier to watch from 2k miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Another PDS tornado watch possible? In OK? No doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Too many debris clouds..move along ..nothing to see today That's not really the issue... in fact the satellite looks just about as good as I thought it would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Too many debris clouds..move along ..nothing to see today There will be a few obnoxiously strong storms, though. Better than 45 and drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 That's not really the issue... in fact the satellite looks just about as good as I thought it would. It's the biggest issue for CT at least..some clearing to the west..but too little too late..these clouds over us will move right up over BOS and destroy their chances too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 AMOUT MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0926 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHEAST CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 241734Z - 241930Z AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL MARGINAL/SPORADIC NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW...WITH A 20 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF ISSUANCE BY 20Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY COMMENCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN VT THROUGH ERN/CNTRL NY INTO NRN PA WITHIN A BROADLY CYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO BECOME ROBUST GIVEN POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6 DEG C/KM AT 700-500 MB SAMPLED IN REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS. DESPITE AREAS OF SCATTERED TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVERAGE...POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING WILL RESULT IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. GIVEN MODERATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KT...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND PERHAPS YIELD ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS IN STRONGER CORES. ..GRAMS.. 05/24/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 It's the biggest issue for CT at least..some clearing to the west..but too little too late..these clouds over us will move right up over BOS and destroy their chances too lol not really weak shear and piss poor lapse rates. The sun is coming back out in W CT... insolation isn't really the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 I looked at your thread for Friday...seems like a stretch to me. We need to build significant heat in here, or at least to NY/PA to bring the damage. I'm looking forward to today...HighmofoRisk for the Plains. Much easier to watch from 2k miles away. Well I don't know if SNE will get into the threat but I think parts of PA/NY will and I'm going chasing that day so I can go out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 lol not really weak shear and piss poor lapse rates. The sun is coming back out in W CT... insolation isn't really the issue. All things we need including sun are not present. As usual. Even your idea from earlier of widespread general storms seems in trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 The problem with that train of thought is , the Hartford Little League team is not going to beat the Red Sox and Yankees in a major league 9 -inning game. Impossibility. But we CAN technically get a plains-like thunderstorm here in NE, once in a blue moon. Much the same argument can be made for hurricanes compared to tropical regions. No we don't hit quite as hard and not nearly as often, but once in a great while we do get obliterated. Don't take it too literally. In other words, they aren't even in the same league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 It's the biggest issue for CT at least..some clearing to the west..but too little too late..these clouds over us will move right up over BOS and destroy their chances too If we had better lapse rates we would be much more unstable right now...shear also sucks, even if we had the shear values that were around this morning we would probably see a bit more in the way of svr today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 All things we need including sun are not present. As usual. Even your idea from earlier of widespread general storms seems in trouble Yeah but again lack of sun isn't what's precluding severe. It's really not an issue. Widespread severe wasn't happening anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 If we had better lapse rates we would be much more unstable right now...shear also sucks, even if we had the shear values that were around this morning we would probably see a bit more in the way of svr today. Exactly. Horrible lapse rates and meager shear. No severe. Not sure why Kevin has is panties in a bunch because there are clouds around (as expected) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Yeah but again lack of sun isn't what's precluding severe. It's really not an issue. Widespread severe wasn't happening anyway. I thought Kevin had full sun according to some posts he made several hours ago anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 We already knew everything in that MD.. but there is some instability so I'm just hoping to see a thunderstorm.. Like I've been hoping since last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Yeah but again lack of sun isn't what's precluding severe. It's really not an issue. Widespread severe wasn't happening anyway. Where are the widespread storms with 250 knot jet streak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Where are the widespread storms with 250 knot jet streak? 250 knots? lol I still think we'll see a bunch of convection fire later on today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I thought Kevin had full sun according to some posts he made several hours ago anyways. Typical Kevin. Exaggerates every possible condition lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Just clouded back over here in Southie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 250 knots? lol I still think we'll see a bunch of convection fire later on today. Not with a cloudy afternoon in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Just clouded back over here in Southie. Looks like another of the mid/high level cloud decks that we had an hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Not with a cloudy afternoon in place You have already destabilized a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Not with a cloudy afternoon in place lol your expectations for events are so far from reality. It was pretty clear we'd have some mid level clouds moving in this midday. Not much of a surprise here and all of this was relatively well modeled. If we had decent deep layer shear and better mid level lapse rates we'd have a solid severe threat. Those are missing. These clouds aren't what's precluding a severe event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Don't take it too literally. In other words, they aren't even in the same league. With the way this year has gone, a significant tornado /severe event for the M/A or even NE wouldn't be out of the question. Maybe 1:5 odds instead of 1:15 or 25. What you said is true but I wouldn't dismiss something more interesting than the average year produces, when it has been so active in the usual suspect areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 lol your expectations for events are so far from reality. It was pretty clear we'd have some mid level clouds moving in this midday. Not much of a surprise here and all of this was relatively well modeled. If we had decent deep layer shear and better mid level lapse rates we'd have a solid severe threat. Those are missing. These clouds aren't what's precluding a severe event. I've been one of the few not on board for storms today since Sunday. Others have been dryhumping today for days. And Tip says it's sunnier today than modelled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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