weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 ...MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO PA/NY BY FRIDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND FOR SOME RISK OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MAY ALSO RESULT IN HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CORES. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS RATHER MINIMAL SO WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 I miss the late March, and April mornings when the weather is chilly in the am, outside shower steam fills the air, this morning with temps in the low 60s barely a breath of steam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Based on what I've watched on radar the last couple days, I'm surprised I'm so close to you (3.58"). Most of what came after Sunday here has fallen at night, so I guess that's why I'm surprised. 3.92 IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 I miss the late March, and April mornings when the weather is chilly in the am, outside shower steam fills the air, this morning with temps in the low 60s barely a breath of steam Lots of stains on the wall it appears??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 I hate outdoor showers, a good friend of mine in high school, actually two of them both had these summer houses and they had outdoor showers...I HATED using them...they were filled with spiders. I used to freak out every time I was in them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Lots of stains on the wall it appears??? It has a bench too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 I hate outdoor showers, a good friend of mine in high school, actually two of them both had these summer houses and they had outdoor showers...I HATED using them...they were filled with spiders. I used to freak out every time I was in them. You are afraid of spiders, yet collect 40oz malt liquor bottles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Lots of stains on the wall it appears??? Blacklight test?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Lots of stains on the wall it appears??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Lots of stains on the wall it appears??? shaving cream LOL, good call, almost 4 inches of rain here in the last 36 hours, you NAILED the CT rain train, well done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 You are afraid of spiders, yet collect 40oz malt liquor bottles? 40oz bottles don't bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Blacklight test?? LOL..imagine what lays on those walls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Well I'm off to bed for a few hours...thinking of going into work today, probably between 1:00 and 2:00 PM but it all depends on the storm threat this afternoon. I have my alarm set for 12:20 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Just all low clouds now it looks like socking us in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Sun trying to come out...I see a big ball of yellow trying to peek out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tstorm723 Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Sun trying to come out...I see a big ball of yellow trying to peek out. That same unidentified round object was out here in town too. Fog is now trying to take over again as we speak. Nice to see though no matter how brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 That same unidentified round object was out here in town too. Fog is now trying to take over again as we speak. Nice to see though no matter how brief. I'm really hoping we can get enough breaks of sun to get the temps up to around 70°F here or at least for portions of the region so we can get those 1000-1500 J/KG of MUcape and ~500 J/KG of SBcape values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Not bad from OKX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Some of that clearing over LI looks like it may make it's way north today..Very bright in Windsor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Phils enjoying a sunny muggy day out on the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 This is so horrifically boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Well looking at satellite trends along with some of the latest model guidance I would think the BEST shot at stronger storms would appear to be eastern CT/RI/eastern MA...looks like these areas have the potential to see potentially quite a bit of sunshine...with this temps should warm through the 60's and perhaps near 70°F. This is where the highest instability values are likely to occur. One thing to keep in mind, however, with a flow due off the ocean and a weakly capped airmass that clearing may fill in with clouds as it moves northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Well some interesting things to note so far. Latest SPC SREF (9z run) doesn't paint out much in the way of thunderstorm potential here, however, it does give a decent shot at any storms becoming strong or perhaps borderline severe. It is fairly robust with instability values though as it gets LI values down to around -3°C, SBcape values around 500 J/KG with a small chance of SBcape values reaching 1000 J/KG, MLcape values around 500 J/KG with a small chance of reaching 1000 J/KG, and MUcape values getting to around 750-1200 J/kG. Of course with the cooling aloft ML lapse rates are pretty steep already, around 6.5 C/KM but perhaps could steepen to as much as 7 C/KM. Looking at the latest SPC mesoanalysis page just off to our west things are already marginally unstable at the surface with 500-1000 J/KG of SBCape across west-central NY down through central/eastern PA to NJ and down through DE. This is characterized with temperatures in the lower 60's with dewpoints in the mid 50's. Across our region temperatures are in the mid to upper 50's with dewpoints about the same, however, just off to our south and west dewpoints are in the lower 60's and that should advect into parts of southern New England as the morning hours go on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Well some interesting things to note so far. Latest SPC SREF (9z run) doesn't paint out much in the way of thunderstorm potential here, however, it does give a decent shot at any storms becoming strong or perhaps borderline severe. It is fairly robust with instability values though as it gets LI values down to around -3°C, SBcape values around 500 J/KG with a small chance of SBcape values reaching 1000 J/KG, MLcape values around 500 J/KG with a small chance of reaching 1000 J/KG, and MUcape values getting to around 750-1200 J/kG. Of course with the cooling aloft ML lapse rates are pretty steep already, around 6.5 C/KM but perhaps could steepen to as much as 7 C/KM. Looking at the latest SPC mesoanalysis page just off to our west things are already marginally unstable at the surface with 500-1000 J/KG of SBCape across west-central NY down through central/eastern PA to NJ and down through DE. This is characterized with temperatures in the lower 60's with dewpoints in the mid 50's. Across our region temperatures are in the mid to upper 50's with dewpoints about the same, however, just off to our south and west dewpoints are in the lower 60's and that should advect into parts of southern New England as the morning hours go on. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Pretty heavy downpour rolling through here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 :weenie: I guess you're not excited on convective potential today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Brightening up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 I guess you're not excited on convective potential today? Only thing he likes is sweaty gonads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Well looking at satellite trends along with some of the latest model guidance I would think the BEST shot at stronger storms would appear to be eastern CT/RI/eastern MA...looks like these areas have the potential to see potentially quite a bit of sunshine...with this temps should warm through the 60's and perhaps near 70°F. This is where the highest instability values are likely to occur. One thing to keep in mind, however, with a flow due off the ocean and a weakly capped airmass that clearing may fill in with clouds as it moves northward. Meanwhile,,it's pouring rain over much of the state..with no shot of clearing until midday at the earliest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Only thing I like is sweaty gonads That's fine with me, a little odd, but I never asked you what you liked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.