Kmlwx Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 I am thinking we remain TW. Preston/Tucker/Garrett STW for destructive winds in excess of 70 mph No I think so too but I meant in terms of reissuance after 2am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 No I think so too but I meant in terms of reissuance after 2am. I think they will issue it by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 RNK issuing more TW's,,, getting ready to jump the mountains Storms also have destructive winds and quarter to golf ball sized hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1204 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... HIGHLAND COUNTY IN WESTERN VIRGINIA... PENDLETON COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... GRANT COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 115 AM EDT * AT 1201 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BAYARD TO 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF UPPER TRACT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BAYARD... HOPEVILLE... UPPER TRACT... SENECA ROCKS... RIVERTON... PETERSBURG... MONTEREY... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Today almost converted me to a severe weather fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 0400 SPC mesoanalysis shows SUP Composite 12-20 from N VA SW into NC... Derecho composite east of Blue Ridge is 4-6... 1km EHI 2-4... 3km EHI is 3-4... effective bulk shear is 40-65 kts. 1km bulk shear is 35-45 kts. ML Lapse rates are 6.5 to 7.5 C/KM. LI's are -3 to -6. MLCAPE 1000-1500. SBCAPE 1000+ east of Blue Ridge. Sig tor effective layer is 2... but 3-5 are in SW VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0649 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL VA...ERN WV...WRN MD...NWRN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 240... VALID 280427Z - 280530Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 240 CONTINUES. TORNADO WATCH 240 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 06Z AND WILL BE REDEFINED SOON WITH A REPLACEMENT WW. NUMEROUS ROTATING STORMS PERSIST WITHIN A LARGER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS FROM THE MD PANHANDLE ACROSS ERN WV INTO SWRN VA. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. GIVEN PRESENCE OF EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...0-1 KM SRH AROUND 500 M2/S2 SAMPLED BY LWX/FCX VWP DATA...ATTENDANT THREATS FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY PERSIST BEYOND 06Z WW EXPIRATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 247 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MARYLAND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE VIRGINIA EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1240 AM UNTIL 800 AM EDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF MARTINSBURG WEST VIRGINIA TO 50 MILES WEST OF GREENSBORO NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 238...WW 239...WW 240...WW 241...WW 242...WW 244...WW 245...WW 246... DISCUSSION...TSTMS CURRENTLY CRESTING THE BLUE RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THEY ENCOUNTER A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE...THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1242 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... HARDY COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... GRANT COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... MINERAL COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 130 AM EDT * AT 1239 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WILLIAMSPORT TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WILLIAMSPORT... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ANTIOCH... OLD FIELDS... BURLINGTON... RIDGEVILLE... RUSSELLDALE... PURGITSVILLE... JUNCTION... HEADSVILLE... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. THE TORNADOES MAY BE WRAPPED IN RAIN AND HARD TO SEE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADOES. TAKE COVER NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Discussion in the new watch says they expect storms to INTENSIFY wow. Look at supercell parameters etc - the 20 is heading our way. I wonder how bad this is going to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 RNK issuing large swaths for their TW's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 When was the last time our area was under a tornado watch for 17 straight hours? I wonder if that has ever happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 I see you Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Colonel Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Is there anyone staying up for this? I don't have it in me, but concerned it will get ugly as parameters continue to ramp up. Le sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Is there anyone staying up for this? I don't have it in me, but concerned it will get ugly as parameters continue to ramp up. Le sigh I am for another hour or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Colonel Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 I am for another hour or so Yea I've got about the same left in me. Going to see what happens to upstate sc as I told the parents I'd keep an eye out. Don't want somehintnto happen and id be asleep. Luckily I believe they are in an ok spot along I-85 (until those storms in Georgia make it there about 2am ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Probs in the new Tor Watch till 8 am are mod across the board... but low on the EF2+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 109 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... HIGHLAND COUNTY IN WESTERN VIRGINIA... PENDLETON COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... HARDY COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... AUGUSTA COUNTY IN WESTERN VIRGINIA... ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IN WESTERN VIRGINIA... GRANT COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 215 AM EDT * AT 105 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 19 MILES WEST OF UPPER TRACT TO 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF UPPER TRACT TO 27 MILES WEST OF BUFFALO GAP...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 247 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MARYLAND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE VIRGINIA EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1240 AM UNTIL 800 AM EDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF MARTINSBURG WEST VIRGINIA TO 50 MILES WEST OF GREENSBORO NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 238...WW 239...WW 240...WW 241...WW 242...WW 244...WW 245...WW 246... DISCUSSION...TSTMS CURRENTLY CRESTING THE BLUE RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THEY ENCOUNTER A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE...THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. I am so scared of tornadoes that I am absolutely petrified to sleep tonight. I am scared to death of this weather system - I am convinced that parts of Dale City will be flattened by 9am Thursday morning. I have never been so scared in my entire life. I kid you not. Prince William County has already had TWO TOR WARNINGS on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 :unsure: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 112 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SMYTH COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TAZEWELL COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WESTERN WYTHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWESTERN BLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA * UNTIL 145 AM EDT. * AT 108 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR QUARRY...OR 6 MILES WEST OF CHILHOWIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 100 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 I am so scared of tornadoes that I am absolutely petrified to sleep tonight. I am scared to death of this weather system - I am convinced that parts of Dale City will be flattened by 9am Thursday morning. I have never been so scared in my entire life. I kid you not. Prince William County has already had TWO TOR WARNINGS on Wednesday. NO: you are a weenie, you didn't get enough snow this winter, and you want to see a twister. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 118 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... ALLEGANY COUNTY IN WESTERN MARYLAND... MINERAL COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 145 AM EDT * AT 115 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER NORTHERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROMNEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... PUMPKIN CENTER... FLINTSTONE... OLDTOWN... SPRINGFIELD... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. THE TORNADO MAY BE WRAPPED IN RAIN AND HARD TO SEE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 0500 SPC meso 1000 SBCAPE and MLCAPE. 1km and 3km EHI is 4 in N VA. Derecho composite is 4 from DCA and then SW. LI's are -3 to -5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 I see you Ian writing something for CWG-- which might be totally ruined by anything else that comes still. it's the new 2008.. just wait till we get our real tornado outbreak in a few weeks. im never going to sleep again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 I doubt there are any specific records of this, but I've got to think that this is the longest time the DC/Baltimore area has been under a tornado watch in a 24 hour period? From 1:30PM in the afternoon to 8am the next day. Even if the tornado threat tonight doesn't pan out and the potential tornadoes earlier in the evening are not confirmed, I still find the length of time under a watch for the area to be pretty cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Supercell composite is 12-16 across VA. Sig tor fixed layer is 2 in VA, but 3 in N VA. Sig tor effective layer is 2-3, but there is an area of 4 in SW VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 129 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... BERKELEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... MORGAN COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... ALLEGANY COUNTY IN WESTERN MARYLAND... * UNTIL 230 AM EDT * AT 125 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF FISHERS BRIDGE TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF LARGENT TO 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LARGENT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 This is kinda disturbing for us.... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 115 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011 . SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A MODEST TEMPERATURE RECOVERY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY OR TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... TOR WATCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM. PTNLY DANGEROUS SITUATION WE ARE WATCHING. SPOTTERS/PUBLIC PLS RELAY REPORTS TO THE NWS/COUNTY EMERGENCY MGRS IF YOU XPRNC DAMAGING WX. AMAZING KUDOS TO THE MDLS. I WORKED THE XTND DESK LAST THU...AND WROTE THIS - "LOW PRES WL TRACK SE INTO SRN QUEBEC NEXT THU...ALLOWING A CD FNT TO PUSH OFF THE E CST." IT DOESN`T ALWAYS WORK THIS WAY...BUT THIS IS TREMENDOUS - PROGRAMMERS...COMPUTERS...A COLD FRONT ALMOST EXACTLY A WK IN ADVANCE. WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 This is kinda disturbing for us.... Whoa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Temps are still in low 70s and DP's in upper 60s at 130 AM... its muggy as hell outside... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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