Winter 2011-2012

[nzucker]

1988-1989, 1979-1980.

88-89 is a good example...79-80 isn't historically low for NYC although certainly bad. I guess New England did worse?

[Logan11]

They were both horrendous here in ENY. In Saugerties we had around 20 inches in each season I believe. The only redeeming feature of 88-89 was that December 1988 was a nice cold wintry month as I recall. I was doing an internship in my final undergrad year at SUNYA - in Albany (history/archives) and I just recall how cold it was. But alas mainly dry and cold...

In the Spring of 89 we did have a surprise wet snow fall on "Good Friday". That was kind of fun...evaporational cooling really did the trick as the air was very dry.

88-89 is a good example...79-80 isn't historically low for NYC although certainly bad. I guess New England did worse?

[Mr Torchey]

:lmao:

Middlebury had above average snowfall in both 08-09 and 09-10....the former year being front-weighted with a dull second half, and the latter year being back-weighted with a cold, dry December and then huge snowfalls of 20" on 1/3 and 2/24...the Green Mountains also eventually changed back to snow in the 2/25 Snowicane. Even though temperatures were MUCH milder in 09-10, a couple big storms got the Champlain Valley above average.

It's hard for our area to have historically low snowfall with near normal temperatures. Also, that storm track would probably cause us to be well above average in temperatures if it occurred frequently enough.

:lmao:

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOSH

[ORH_wxman]

They were both horrendous here in ENY. In Saugerties we had around 20 inches in each season I believe. The only redeeming feature of 88-89 was that December 1988 was a nice cold wintry month as I recall. I was doing an internship in my final undergrad year at SUNYA - in Albany (history/archives) and I just recall how cold it was. But alas mainly dry and cold...

In the Spring of 89 we did have a surprise wet snow fall on "Good Friday". That was kind of fun...evaporational cooling really did the trick as the air was very dry.

I remember the March '89 surprise snow. We got about 7 or 8" in Holden, MA when only rain was forecast...that was the only good part of that entire winter.

'79-'80 was slightly above normal temps but it was horrendously dry. Epic dryness in DJF. The total precip at ORH during DJF was 3.57"...that's so bad. I think its the 4th least snowiest winter on record here. '88-'89 is 5th least snowiest. '79-'80 is the #1 least snowy winter up where Ray is. Neither winter was known for warmth

[nzucker]

78-79 might be another decent example. Cold winter (mostly Feb) but not much to show for it from NYC north.

Generally though, the worst snowfall winters have been warm. NYC's two lowest snowfall years, 72-73 and 97-98, both had above average temperatures.

[tamarack]

88-89 is a good example...79-80 isn't historically low for NYC although certainly bad. I guess New England did worse?

88-89 was poor for most of Maine, but run-of-the-mill poor. 79-80 was epic fail, PWM's least snowy winter ever, and Farmington's 2nd least (1.0" more than 1980-81) since 1893. The snow drought extended to the north, as it was the least snowy of my 10 winters in Ft. Kent, about 2' less than the next lowest.

[Logan11]

78-79 featured the idyllic Christmas snowstorm with a foot of snow in Upstate NY. That kept me in snowcover for the Xmas/News break so I was happy being able sled every day. Other that that, I don't think it was much of a winter. But after 77-78 we couldn't complain too much.

78-79 might be another decent example. Cold winter (mostly Feb) but not much to show for it from NYC north.

Generally though, the worst snowfall winters have been warm. NYC's two lowest snowfall years, 72-73 and 97-98, both had above average temperatures.

[ORH_wxman]

Cold and dry winters are far worse than warm and wet IMHO. I'd much rather have a '97-'98 versus an '03-'04 up here. Both dropped similar snow totals but the '03-'04 winter was just overbearing suppression.

The cold in January was interesting during that outbreak...but for the most part, it was a horrible month to track any storm threats.

[Logan11]

February 2004 was the first time I walked this property here ..before we had signed a contact to buy it. I recall some very deep snowcover out back - as in 24 to 30 inches with some drifts to my waist. So clearly it wasn't snowless here. I also recall a 10" snowfall in March after thaws had melted a lot of the earlier snow. It seems to me it started with a storm around New Years that was ice to snow. We still had snow patches on the shady side of the hill around April 10th when we walked in there with the well driller...

Cold and dry winters are far worse than warm and wet IMHO. I'd much rather have a '97-'98 versus an '03-'04 up here. Both dropped similar snow totals but the '03-'04 winter was just overbearing suppression.

The cold in January was interesting during that outbreak...but for the most part, it was a horrible month to track any storm threats.

[nzucker]

Cold and dry winters are far worse than warm and wet IMHO. I'd much rather have a '97-'98 versus an '03-'04 up here. Both dropped similar snow totals but the '03-'04 winter was just overbearing suppression.

The cold in January was interesting during that outbreak...but for the most part, it was a horrible month to track any storm threats.

I like extreme cold, I think it's a necessary part of winter. And this area needs cold anomalies much more than you.

03-04 FTW...97-98 was a disaster.

[weathafella]

I like extreme cold, I think it's a necessary part of winter. And this area needs cold anomalies much more than you.

03-04 FTW...97-98 was a disaster.

Your area was in the "sweet spot" 2003-04 with anomalously high snow while SNE had the snow frontloaded in December and little more until March. I agree with Will that the January extreme cold was interesting but 1997-98 was volatile including severe tstorms NYE which doesn't happen too often. Painful cold over a 1 inch snow cover without augmentation gets old in a hurry.

[nzucker]

Your area was in the "sweet spot" 2003-04 with anomalously high snow while SNE had the snow frontloaded in December and little more until March. I agree with Will that the January extreme cold was interesting but 1997-98 was volatile including severe tstorms NYE which doesn't happen too often. Painful cold over a 1 inch snow cover without augmentation gets old in a hurry.

December '97 was a huge storm for ORH as well...don't know how you did but the radar was absurd with 60dbz dendrites.

[free_man]

03-04 was one of my favorite winters ever. Hopefully that repeats itself.

[CoastalWx]

I can't complain about Dec '03, but that winter pretty much stunk. Nothing...nothing is worse than watching clippers fly by to the southwest, and I'm left with the disc of the sun shining through the clouds....no thanks.

[ORH_wxman]

February 2004 was the first time I walked this property here ..before we had signed a contact to buy it. I recall some very deep snowcover out back - as in 24 to 30 inches with some drifts to my waist. So clearly it wasn't snowless here. I also recall a 10" snowfall in March after thaws had melted a lot of the earlier snow. It seems to me it started with a storm around New Years that was ice to snow. We still had snow patches on the shady side of the hill around April 10th when we walked in there with the well driller...

'03-'04 wasn't snowless here, it just was mostly front loaded with an extremely boring pattern for most of January with extreme cold but bone dry with everything missing southwest of us. February then torched and March made a bit of a comeback but the bulk of the snow in March still missed us south but not nearly as bad as January.

[Ginx snewx]

LOL the data just gets better and better for the upcoming winter, lights will go on soon in a lot of folks heads. Commodious winter incoming, commodious, commodious winter incoming.

[ski MRG]

LOL the data just gets better and better for the upcoming winter, lights will go on soon in a lot of folks heads. Commodious winter incoming, commodious, commodious winter incoming.

I'm quite optimistic that another prolific Winter is on tap. I look forward to the first legit Winter threat, it beats this boredom that's for sure.

[weathafella]

December '97 was a huge storm for ORH as well...don't know how you did but the radar was absurd with 60dbz dendrites.

I got about 9 inches from the 12/23/97 event which was forecasted to be all rain. A great event. We also had some decent events in late January and again in late March.

[weathafella]

LOL the data just gets better and better for the upcoming winter, lights will go on soon in a lot of folks heads. Commodious winter incoming, commodious, commodious winter incoming.

All are. They are long in SNE. This will be remember for frustration I fear.

[ORH_wxman]

I got about 9 inches from the 12/23/97 event which was forecasted to be all rain. A great event. We also had some decent events in late January and again in late March.

There was a nice period of about 7-10 days in mid/late January 1998 that produced a couple events. I remember one of them had the sleet line literally along the pike almost the whole time. Maybe a shade south of the pike once toward BOS since it's a little further north over there. That year was so active...if we had just been a touch colder, might have been an epic winter. It certainly kept you more on your toes compared to inactive/warm winters like 1994-1995.

The CT Valley runner on Dec 30, 1997 was disappointing. So close to a huge snowstorm but it just amplified too quickly. I do recall getting about 3-4" of total paste though before it flipped to rain here in the interior. The Feb 24, 1998 nor easter was also some heart break for the interior. It went from a snow to rain event to it trending all snow for us and we were in the 12-18" contour, but then it flipped to rain after about 3" and never went back to snow until a few flurries at the end. I don't think it was quite as brutal for the coast since they weren't forecast to get as much before the storm. But at least in that winter, you felt we had a chance in a lot of events...the other winters like '94-'95 and '88-'89, you just never had a chance with a lack of storm systems. I'm sure '97-'98 felt more hopeless further south, but we definitely had brushes with excitement. But most of the time that winter it just couldn't quite do it. 12/23/97 was kind of the exception.

[ski MRG]

All are. They are long in SNE. This will be remember for frustration I fear.

So, you are saying not a good Winter, is that correct? Just want to save your response for evidence in case you change your tune and claim early clairvoyance again.

[weathafella]

So, you are saying not a good Winter, is that correct? Just want to save your response for evidence in case you change your tune and claim early clairvoyance again.

You're an idiot...a lovable one i might add. I never wavered last year. I'm more likely to this year given my inherent weenieeism.

[Logan11]

I never make winter predictions. I like the surprise. And I don't usually frequent these winter prognostication threads, but alas we are in a wx desert now and not much else of interest.

And I enjoy winter wx of all different permutations so even in a down winter (snowfall-wise) there would still be a lot of fascinating systems to track. To me interesting winter wx is a relative kind of thing. In a snowy winter maybe you need another foot to satisfy, but in a less snowy winter chasing that several inch rain to snow event, the rain/snow line, etc. can end up being very satisfying and fun.

You're an idiot...a lovable one i might add. I never wavered last year. I'm more likely to this year given my inherent weenieeism.

[CoastalWx]

I'm quite optimistic that another prolific Winter is on tap. I look forward to the first legit Winter threat, it beats this boredom that's for sure.

LOL, shocking.

[nzucker]

There was a nice period of about 7-10 days in mid/late January 1998 that produced a couple events. I remember one of them had the sleet line literally along the pike almost the whole time. Maybe a shade south of the pike once toward BOS since it's a little further north over there. That year was so active...if we had just been a touch colder, might have been an epic winter. It certainly kept you more on your toes compared to inactive/warm winters like 1994-1995.

The CT Valley runner on Dec 30, 1997 was disappointing. So close to a huge snowstorm but it just amplified too quickly. I do recall getting about 3-4" of total paste though before it flipped to rain here in the interior. The Feb 24, 1998 nor easter was also some heart break for the interior. It went from a snow to rain event to it trending all snow for us and we were in the 12-18" contour, but then it flipped to rain after about 3" and never went back to snow until a few flurries at the end. I don't think it was quite as brutal for the coast since they weren't forecast to get as much before the storm. But at least in that winter, you felt we had a chance in a lot of events...the other winters like '94-'95 and '88-'89, you just never had a chance with a lack of storm systems. I'm sure '97-'98 felt more hopeless further south, but we definitely had brushes with excitement. But most of the time that winter it just couldn't quite do it. 12/23/97 was kind of the exception.

I remember 97-98 as a pretty wet winter but not a lot of cold air to match the precipitation. I believe the strong Niño created a lot of cut-off lows in the southern stream with a super-active STJ, but the polar jet mostly stayed in Northern Canada and Siberia because of the +EPO...also, the strength of the southern jet may have pushed a lot of warm air into the US if we ascribe to that theory. We had a neutral to even slightly negative NAO at some points, but the fast Pacific pattern kept everything bottled up in the higher latitudes. If you look at the anomaly maps for 97-98 vs 09-10, you'll notice that so many places globally had slightly above average heights for Winter 97-98 due to the warming effect of the strong Niño and lack of blocking (except for some areas in Siberia where the PV sat, where heights were below average). 09-10 had greater plus anomalies in the Arctic, but also big areas of troughing in the European and American mid-latitudes to accompany it. Neither winter had many extreme cold airmasses but 09-10 kept enough northerly flow off of Canada to keep the US cooler than normal. The Pacific pattern in 97-98, however, was the main reason we never achieved much cold air. You can see that there was a dominant GoA low that kept the PV over Western Siberia and not over Canada, which torched:

NYC only had 5.5" of snow in 97-98, second lowest ever. We were on track to set the futility record (2.8" in 72-73), until the mid-March storm. I think Westchester had maybe 10" that winter, one of the worst I've seen.

[free_man]

I can't complain about Dec '03, but that winter pretty much stunk. Nothing...nothing is worse than watching clippers fly by to the southwest, and I'm left with the disc of the sun shining through the clouds....no thanks.

It had one of the best blizzards in recent memory iirc. 20-40". Hopefully we'll be golfing in January like 07 though, this coming winter.

[CoastalWx]

It had one of the best blizzards in recent memory iirc. 20-40". Hopefully we'll be golfing in January like 07 though, this coming winter.

That was a two part system the clobbered areas just west of the coastal front..especially in coastal Essex county. First part was mostly south of the Pike. That area from near Everett through Peabody got almost 3'. Ray loved that storm..lol.

[free_man]

That was a two part system the clobbered areas just west of the coastal front..especially in coastal Essex county. First part was mostly south of the Pike. That area from near Everett through Peabody got almost 3'. Ray loved that storm..lol.

I know...it was still blizzard-like conditions. Had 27" in Canton, maybe a mile from MQE. Rest of the "winter" can go home, I'll take 20-40" at one time and run like hell every winter.

[ski MRG]

You're an idiot...a lovable one i might add. I never wavered last year. I'm more likely to this year given my inherent weenieeism.

I've been told I have a high I.Q. so I don't think that's accurate.lol

LOL, shocking.

After an exhaustive examination of all available data I feel confident that we're going to get bombed. My forecast is grounded in science I assure you.

[ORH_wxman]

Some of the latest dynamical models have trended a little more toward a weak Nina this fall/winter. Those are to be taken with a grain of salt this far out, but sometimes they can catch onto a trend. We'll have to see how it looks a month from now.