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Upslope\LES Thread.....So the Mountain Folk and LEK's

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

I'd say pops should be in the 80% range. Everything about the next 7 days says sustained mountain snow showers. I love the look for the upper Greens.

Dude me too... I'm pumped. Some indication that we may be able to oull some light to moderate accums out of Saturday if the GFS is anywhere close to right. 00z GFS/GGEM/EURO all looked good for Saturday. NAM is the only one that didn't.

I honestly think 7 day totals by next Thursday could be in the 12-24" range for the ski resorts and prime upslope areas north of I-89 corridor.

Jono, as far as ratios go, I like to stick pretty close to a 12:1-15:1 until proven otherwise. There is a chance that some of this could come in on our usual 20-40:1 ratios but its hard to forecast that stuff.

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adk

adk

Posted
Posted

Dude me too... I'm pumped. Some indication that we may be able to oull some light to moderate accums out of Saturday if the GFS is anywhere close to right. 00z GFS/GGEM/EURO all looked good for Saturday. NAM is the only one that didn't.

I honestly think 7 day totals by next Thursday could be in the 12-24" range for the ski resorts and prime upslope areas north of I-89 corridor.

Jono, as far as ratios go, I like to stick pretty close to a 12:1-15:1 until proven otherwise. There is a chance that some of this could come in on our usual 20-40:1 ratios but its hard to forecast that stuff.

I'd think a solid 12:1 to to 15:1 ratio would be reasonable. You have good temperature support and with moderate winds the flakes should hold a pretty fluffly shape.

I was thinking we'd have weekly totals (Say saturday night to sunday night next week) as follows:

below 2500 ft north of 89 in the greens would prob. have 12 inches, above that - maybe 20 inches with favored locations (you know those special locations along Mansfield) getting closer to the 25-28 inches by weeks end. Jay would have a similar breakdown. Smuggs and the bush prob. within the same order of magnatude but slighly lower totals.

The ADK would end up with lesser- but impossible to confirm because I'm sure the NW faces of Marcy and Algonquin, Lyon and even Street/Nye, Santanonis would do so much better than WF but nobody is there to report.

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted
I honestly think 7 day totals by next Thursday could be in the 12-24" range for the ski resorts and prime upslope areas north of I-89 corridor.

That sounds reasonable, and based on the consensus of data that I've seen from experts like you guys on AmWx, the NWS, Roger Hill, and personal experience from living around here, if someone were to ask me for numbers, that's exactly what I would have said to them.

I'm less sure about what numbers to think about for accumulations down at the house. Often I'll just go with 1/4 to 1/2 of what the upslope-savvy folks are thinking for the higher elevations of the Mansfield-Bolton stretch of the Greens, which would put our location in the 3-12" range, but the NWS is worried about marginal temperatures in the lower elevations:

ACCUMULATIONS A TAD MORE TRICKY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AS NEAR-SURFACE LAYERS AT OR JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.

Even with some marginal temperatures at times, the overnight temperatures should be below freezing, so even the lowest-elevation mountain valleys are probably going to get something to accumulate.

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adk

adk

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Agreed CT Rain. As that storm spins back you can really see the upslope paramaters start to spike. Deep layer RH from the 4th to the 8th with almost full saturation from surface to 700/600mb, two peaks of low level UVV around the 4th/5th and 7th-8th all really say bring it on. Only thing is the GFS looks a tad warmer. Only -8c or so at 850mb. Would love to see that drop a bit. Heck however it the GFS is spitting out .7 qpf for BTV you know you have to at least double that for NW slopes of the northern greens.

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Mad River

Mad River

Posted
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I'm just itchin' for a hike to ski day! I can't wait. The new boots are ready, the AT bindings checked. The skins re-fitted. The backpack waiting by the door. Let it snow!

Honestly some of the best skiing of the year can be the early season at the parts of the ski areas that aren't open yet. This could be fun.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Agreed CT Rain. As that storm spins back you can really see the upslope paramaters start to spike. Deep layer RH from the 4th to the 8th with almost full saturation from surface to 700/600mb, two peaks of low level UVV around the 4th/5th and 7th-8th all really say bring it on. Only thing is the GFS looks a tad warmer. Only -8c or so at 850mb. Would love to see that drop a bit. Heck however it the GFS is spitting out .7 qpf for BTV you know you have to at least double that for NW slopes of the northern greens.

This is a huge signal for a major event starting early next week and running almost till the end of the week. Look at the 12z GFS and that is just about perfect for a memorable, season-starting event.

Obviously take this with a grain of salt (the actual QPF amounts) but as we get closer and can switch to the meso-scale models, we'd probably see it cut back at BTV and increase along the actual Green Mountains. This would be much more terrain oriented on the meso-scale models... as the GFS is basically just smoothing out the QPF fields. With that said, this is about as big of a signal on the GFS as I've ever seen... for a non-mesoscale model to flag over 1" of QPF from upslope is huge.

gfs_p60_156m.gif

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adk

adk

Posted
Posted

This is a huge signal for a major event starting early next week and running almost till the end of the week. Look at the 12z GFS and that is just about perfect for a memorable, season-starting event.

Obviously take this with a grain of salt (the actual QPF amounts) but as we get closer and can switch to the meso-scale models, we'd probably see it cut back at BTV and increase along the actual Green Mountains. This would be much more terrain oriented on the meso-scale models... as the GFS is basically just smoothing out the QPF fields. With that said, this is about as big of a signal on the GFS as I've ever seen... for a non-mesoscale model to flag over 1" of QPF from upslope is huge.

gfs_p60_156m.gif

I think at this point we can all agree this is good. Very VERY good. I took at look at the bufkit predictions for Jay Peak. It's putting out SNOW for every period from the 4th through the 9th with a total cumulative snowfall of 29.4 inches. Now I want to say BS on that BUT it really makes sense and is within reason.

I'm ready.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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I think at this point we can all agree this is good. Very VERY good. I took at look at the bufkit predictions for Jay Peak. It's putting out SNOW for every period from the 4th through the 9th with a total cumulative snowfall of 29.4 inches. Now I want to say BS on that BUT it really makes sense and is within reason.

I'm ready.

Given the synoptic features and the places they are progged to be at... I think that 30" is within reach at Jay next week. I'm thinking 12-20" right now for Stowe and operationally, it better happen because Mountain Ops is taking my word for it. Instead of going back to do a surface refresher with the snow guns, we are banking on this snow next week to do the re-surface for us and let snowmaking concentrate on expanding terrain.

Now, we have two distinct threats in my mind... whatever happens this weekend (GFS says Saturday is snow, NAM says Sunday) could put down several inches as an appetizer for the big event from Monday PM through Thursday AM.

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adk

adk

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Given the synoptic features and the places they are progged to be at... I think that 30" is within reach at Jay next week. I'm thinking 12-20" right now for Stowe and operationally, it better happen because Mountain Ops is taking my word for it. Instead of going back to do a surface refresher with the snow guns, we are banking on this snow next week to do the re-surface for us and let snowmaking concentrate on expanding terrain.

Now, we have two distinct threats in my mind... whatever happens this weekend (GFS says Saturday is snow, NAM says Sunday) could put down several inches as an appetizer for the big event from Monday PM through Thursday AM.

Hey- listen at least Stowe will save money. Regardless of how much you get right (and I think 12-20 is for sure possible) you can at least tell them it will not warm up (too much).

Now if the flow turns more northerly and loses the west component...which I don't think it will do given the orientation of the isobars predicted...how does that affect manny? I know in realy northerly flow...say like...340 to 20 degrees...Lyon and WF in the ADK get hit hard and Jay goes off.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

BTV thinking advisory/warning criteria snowfall on Saturday and Saturday Night... followed by daily snow next week. "We'll probably measure in feet"

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

628 PM EST THU DEC 2 2010

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 312 PM EST THURSDAY...SETUP FOR FRIDAY HAS SFC RIDGE OFF TO

THE WEST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LKS REGION. MDLS BRING UPPER

TROUGH SE OVER THE REGION AND OFF THE COAST BY FRI NGT. THIS WILL

FORM A CUTOFF SYSTEM THAT LIFTS N OVER NEW ENGLAND GOING INTO

SAT/SAT NGT. THIS WILL DRAG IN OFFSHORE SFC LOWS THAT WILL DRAG IN

ATLANTIC MOISTURE THRU THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/MAINE AND DOWN UPON

THE CWA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING

SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE

CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER N VT. QPF UP TO 0.50-0.60" COMBINED WITH

NORTHERLY UPSLOPE EFFECTS COULD PUT SOME AREA NEAR ADVISORY/

WARNING CRITERIA AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED DURING NEXT SHIFTS.

MAJOR QPF PLUME WILL SHIFT WEST INTO N NY SAT NGT BFR TAPERING OFF

LATE SAT NGT TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING...WHERE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS

COULD LEAVE SL ADDITIONAL ACCUM OVER NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 255 PM EST THURSDAY...NO BIG CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST

SCENARIO FOR NEXT WEEK. IN SUMMARY, IT LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED

PERIOD WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS PERIODS OF SNOW EACH AND

EVERY DAY. ALTHOUGH I DONT FORSEE ANY MAJOR SNOWSTORMS, I EXPECT

WE`LL GET NICKLED AND DIMED (ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS

AND HIGHER TERRAIN) WITH THE SNOW, BUT BY THE END OF THE NEXT

WEEK WE`LL LIKELY HAVE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK ON THE

GROUND, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WHERE WE`LL PROBABLY

MEASURE IN FEET. I SUSPECT THAT WILL BE GOOD NEWS TO WINTER

OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS.

SYNOPTICALLY THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE HEMISPHERE HAS BECOME

RATHER BLOCKY. A STRONG OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE EASTERM ATLANTIC IS

PROGGED TO HANG TOUGH FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT

IN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US TO PRETTY MUCH STAY

LOCKED IN PLACE. THE GFS AND EURO MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIOUS

DISTURBANCES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND

PROMOTE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EAST COAST AND THEN SWEEP THOSE LOWS

NORTHWARD JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL BRING IN MORE ATLANTIC

MOISTURE INTO THE AREA -- JUST KEEPING THOSE CLOUDS AND THREAT OF

SNOW IN THE PICTURE. WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINING

PRIMARILY NORTH/NORTHWEST, THIS WILL PROMOTE OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER

THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.

DUE TO THE OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING ANY SPECIFIC

DISTURBANCE IN SUCH A PATTERN, I`VE PRETTY MUCH PAINTED IN

PERSISTENT 30-50% POPS (HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH/HIGH TERRAIN)

EACH DAY. THERE ARE INDICATATION IN THE MODELS THAT THE PATTERN

MAY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK OR AT LEAST START TO

SHIFT A BIT TO THE EAST. AS THAT HAPPENS, A COLDER AIRMASS WILL

BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. SO ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE

GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, IT LOOKS

LIKE WE`LL TREND BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

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adk

adk

Posted
Posted

Looking the GFS i see a ton of lower level lift. Two distinct spikes of -20 ubar/s between roughly 900 mb and 825 mb from both the 5th to 6th and 7th to 8th. As PF will tell you, the lift at the lower levels - is very important to get the upslope machine cranking.

Temps will between -8 and -11 for the period which isn't bad. It's not ideal but it's pretty damn good. RH looks great. Almost full saturation to the 700mb level.

Lets see what we can get cranking.

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adk

adk

Posted
Posted

Whiteface got some snow last night by the looks of the webcam and some light snow now. I think whiteface easily picks up a foot of new snow over the next week. I do think Gore will see some snow but it should be much less than what the Face gets.

WF is tricky in these upslope events. Sometimes the snow on a NW flow never really works around into the ski area. Mt. VanHo gets 8 and the ski area gets 4. Nevermind that the LP side gets 14 but nobody knows it. It's a big massif with a ton of vertical relief and lots of weather on a NW flow gets caught before it gets around to the south side. A foot over the week is totally reasonable if VT gets 2 feet.

Now...on a SW flow off the lakes...thats something else. That just pummels the adk. I remember december 2006 i think it was...right before xmas...large pattern brought sustained moisture on sw flow and WF got 3 feet in a week. That was fun.

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NorEaster27

NorEaster27

Posted
Posted

WF is tricky in these upslope events. Sometimes the snow on a NW flow never really works around into the ski area. Mt. VanHo gets 8 and the ski area gets 4. Nevermind that the LP side gets 14 but nobody knows it. It's a big massif with a ton of vertical relief and lots of weather on a NW flow gets caught before it gets around to the south side. A foot over the week is totally reasonable if VT gets 2 feet.

Now...on a SW flow off the lakes...thats something else. That just pummels the adk. I remember december 2006 i think it was...right before xmas...large pattern brought sustained moisture on sw flow and WF got 3 feet in a week. That was fun.

I remember that event in 06 pretty epic. I would love to ski the face more this year, with good snow the mountain really has that out west big feel. I have a season pass to gore / whiteface but I tend to ski almost all gore since its closer to my house. This winter we may see an even bigger than usual spread in snowfall between the two.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Upslope FTW

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

1036 AM EST MON DEC 6 2010

VTZ003-006-016-017-062100-

/O.NEW.KBTV.WS.W.0004.101206T1536Z-101207T1800Z/

ORLEANS-LAMOILLE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...JOHNSON...STOWE...

ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL

1036 AM EST MON DEC 6 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...AS

WELL AS ORLEANS AND LAMOILLE COUNTIES OF VERMONT.

* HAZARDS...MODERATE SNOWFALL.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS ON

NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES.

* TIMING...THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT AREA ROADWAYS...MAKING DRIVING

HAZARDOUS AT TIMES.

* WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH

AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. LOWS IN THE MID

TEENS.

* VISIBILITIES...DOWN TO 1 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

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adk

adk

Posted
Posted

Upslope FTW

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

1036 AM EST MON DEC 6 2010

VTZ003-006-016-017-062100-

/O.NEW.KBTV.WS.W.0004.101206T1536Z-101207T1800Z/

ORLEANS-LAMOILLE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...JOHNSON...STOWE...

ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL

1036 AM EST MON DEC 6 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...AS

WELL AS ORLEANS AND LAMOILLE COUNTIES OF VERMONT.

* HAZARDS...MODERATE SNOWFALL.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS ON

NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES.

* TIMING...THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT AREA ROADWAYS...MAKING DRIVING

HAZARDOUS AT TIMES.

* WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH

AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. LOWS IN THE MID

TEENS.

* VISIBILITIES...DOWN TO 1 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

Positively NUKING in ADK high peaks. Curious as to what's going on on the top of stowe. A network of backcountry skiing spies hasn't reported back yet.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Positively NUKING in ADK high peaks. Curious as to what's going on on the top of stowe. A network of backcountry skiing spies hasn't reported back yet.

Snowing and blowing. Measuring this stuff is almost impossible. New snow is 0-18" so far, lol.

It is currently dumping down in Stowe village right now. Windy too.

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