SACRUS Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 ggem out to 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 out to 144 hrs b/w charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 gem looks like it dropped south a decent amount with the dec 5th storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 168 - 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 What are the implications further north with the 2nd system? More northerly component or less amplification with the second one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 heres the hr 144 precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 192 - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 What the hell is the GGEM doing at 192 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 lol, the trof went negative to quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 What the hell is the GGEM doing at 192 hours. its called a lakes cutter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 a lake cutter? still has the block in place over greenland though.. doesn't make much sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 168 hours looked pretty good...then everything just imploded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 What a odd solution.... It goes on a negative tilt way too early... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Unless it's trying to do a Miller A/B hybrid kind of thing...where the primary dies in the Ohio Valley and a secondary forms off the Delmarva or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 its called a lakes cutter lol not what i expected but nothing should be surprising of late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Unless it's trying to do a Miller A/B hybrid kind of thing...where the primary dies in the Ohio Valley and a secondary forms off the Delmarva or something. Miller A/B hybrids are quite sweet because they can really pack a punch, but this is a odd solution for that, I would think. And that Primary Low isn't dying, it's at 993.... Best to disregard this solution... And that block is NUTS. 1051 High on Greenland???? Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 D10 icebox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 The GGEM is probably one of the last models I'd turn to at any time. Driving a low through the Lakes is utter crap, not going verify in this pattern w/ a severely neg nao/ao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Just too early to live and die with each model run ... the models will change a million times over the next few days. I would wait until we're within 5 days before looking at this stuff more seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I cant see a lakes cutter with that kind of block over Greenland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 Just too early to live and die with each model run ... the models will change a million times over the next few days. I would wait until we're within 5 days before looking at this stuff more seriously. Even within 3 days I wouldnt rule out some major swings run to run. Its interesting to track the runs and study the guidance even this far out for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 What about the 168 color maps for precip from the first storm? Looks like it had some promise for a mod event?/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 LOL @ the GGEM. Strong -NAO, greenland block does not usually equal lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 What about the 168 color maps for precip from the first storm? Looks like it had some promise for a mod event?/ i posted the 144 hr color map, the 168 wont be out till later around when the euro comes out. Judging by the 144 hr map it would prob just head out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 What about the 168 color maps for precip from the first storm? Looks like it had some promise for a mod event?/ those maps will update in about a half hour (100) the canadian met site precip maps only goto 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 i posted the 144 hr color map, the 168 wont be out till later around when the euro comes out. Judging by the 144 hr map it would prob just head out to sea. Yea nothing major just a mod 2-4 event for someone in it's path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 So three completely different solutions from three models. Cleared nothing up, but it's early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 a lake cutter? still has the block in place over greenland though.. doesn't make much sense to me. we have a pretty nice block over Greenland the past few days..and looky what we have on the way. Would never even consider living and dying by the long range ggem model though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I'll tell you one thing, this run was most certainly out to lunch. The ensembles develop a surface low southeast of the benchmark while the OP brings the surface low into the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I'll tell you one thing, this run was most certainly out to lunch. The ensembles develop a surface low southeast of the benchmark while the OP brings the surface low into the Lakes. This. Below looks so good it has to be old... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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