earthlight Posted April 13, 2011 Author Share Posted April 13, 2011 Will you be wearing your sunflower or your general floral assortment dress if it pans out? The better question is, what color bermuda shorts will NZucker be donning in the warmth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 Will you be wearing your sunflower or your general floral assortment dress if it pans out? Depends on how much I have to drink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 Yeah the 12z GFS depicts a baroclinic zone w/ the N-S thermal gradient, PHL-NYC area right along the boundary as usual. Verbatim most of next week is garbage in NYC w/ 50s and a NE/ELY flow. Wouldn't be surprised if it happens based upon how this spring's played out thus far -- the warmth generally confined to CNJ points SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 Yeah the 12z GFS depicts a baroclinic zone w/ the N-S thermal gradient, PHL-NYC area right along the boundary as usual. Verbatim most of next week is garbage in NYC w/ 50s and a NE/ELY flow. Wouldn't be surprised if it happens based upon how this spring's played out thus far -- the warmth generally confined to CNJ points SW. Agreed, low probability of any real warmth the rest of the month in KNYC or thereabout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 Agreed, low probability of any real warmth the rest of the month in KNYC or thereabout. Agreed, the Euro is most definitely wrong as usual. Oh wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 I'm not saying the GFS is definitely correct, but the NAO and AO will be declining over the next week, which should yeild more resistance to warmth in the Northeast. Considering the true warm sector hasn't made it much further N than NYC is the current very +AO/NAO pattern, it makes sense that the cut-off would probably be further south than recent heat surges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 I'm not saying the GFS is definitely correct, but the NAO and AO will be declining over the next week, which should yeild more resistance to warmth in the Northeast. Considering the true warm sector hasn't made it much further N than NYC is the current very +AO/NAO pattern, it makes sense that the cut-off would probably be further south than recent heat surges. True, but as we get into late April/ early May that warm sector will be moving north just as a matter of climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 FWIW last nights ECM means were not as warm as the ECM operational OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 typically above average temps in April have transitioned to below average temps in May during Nina's. Not that we've had long stretches of above normal temps, but a large percentage of the US has. There is a thread about it on this forum... http://www.americanw...na-climatology/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 The better question is, what color bermuda shorts will NZucker be donning in the warmth? He'll be lying in bed naked and complaining about how its too uncomfortable to sleep already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 12z euro has close to 1" of rain Saturday night into Sunday morning. Then temps reach low 60's, Sunday afternoon. Monday gets into the low to mid 60's. Tuesday gets near 70 degrees. and Wednesday looks seasonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 12z euro has close to 1" of rain Saturday night into Sunday morning. Then temps reach low 60's, Sunday afternoon. Monday gets into the low to mid 60's. Tuesday gets near 70 degrees. and Wednesday looks seasonal. Sounds like its cooler than the 00z run, more similar to the GFS although warmer than it. Basically depicts a near normal pattern; 60-65F are average temps for the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 The better question is, what color bermuda shorts will NZucker be donning in the warmth? He will be busy discussing the -epo block that will last through may and how it could easily bring 2-3 more signifiant snowstorms to the area. Also how we may see frost in the morning on monday when the high is in the upper 60s. He will also mention the -10 C line that shows up on the gfs on day 11, and how it may produce record lows on easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 13, 2011 Author Share Posted April 13, 2011 12z euro has close to 1" of rain Saturday night into Sunday morning. Then temps reach low 60's, Sunday afternoon. Monday gets into the low to mid 60's. Tuesday gets near 70 degrees. and Wednesday looks seasonal. I'll take it. 60s on Sunday, mid 60s Monday, 70s Tuesday. Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 I'll take it. 60s on Sunday, mid 60s Monday, 70s Tuesday. Lock it up. Yep, no complaints here. If we have seasonal temps from now until late October I will not complain one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. North wind between 9 and 11 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 13, 2011 Author Share Posted April 13, 2011 The Euro is a big torch through Day 10 in the mid levels..while the GFS is more mundane. The 12z Euro is actually more enthused with the warmer idea than it's 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 The Euro is a big torch through Day 10 in the mid levels..while the GFS is more mundane. The 12z Euro is actually more enthused with the warmer idea than it's 00z run. That is good new and as long we don't get severe below normal temps I will be happy with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 That is good new and as long we don't get severe below normal temps I will be happy with it. Yep, 10 days from now 4/23 the avg high/low for NYC is 63/47. Yes pls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 14, 2011 Author Share Posted April 14, 2011 It's a beautiful morning out there...NAM says 66 in the usual warm spots later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 14, 2011 Author Share Posted April 14, 2011 The operationals are finally starting to catch on to the warmer global ensemble means...looks like we will have a warm day or two next week. The Day 10 means are also warm again at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Any severe weather on the horizon? Seems like the SE is getting raked every other day. Possible major tornado outbreak tomorrow along the gulf coast. I know severe weather season hasn't begun yet for the northeast but there have been some pretty potent waves moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 14, 2011 Author Share Posted April 14, 2011 The NW surface winds should help the coast have a beautiful day today as well...I wonder how warm JFK and ISP will get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 The NW surface winds should help the coast have a beautiful day today as well...I wonder how warm JFK and ISP will get Euro has JFK getting to 58-60 degrees and the rest of us 62-65 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 I just hit 61 here with the warm offshore flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Resized to 95% (was 768 x 496) - Click image to enlarge Up to 60 here. So nice to see the sun. Get through the weekend and we should be in a decent stretch of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 The NW surface winds should help the coast have a beautiful day today as well...I wonder how warm JFK and ISP will get Its FINALLY nice and warm down here!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 A beautiful 65 degrees here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 I am currently at 69 here. LB West End at 70 http://www.wundergro...sp?ID=KNYLONGB6 Gilgo Beach at 69 http://www.wundergro...sp?ID=KNYGILGO1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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