OKpowdah Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Once this sharp trough lifts out of New England Tuesday night, it will drive upstream energy over James Bay south toward northern New England. The NAM is most robust with a s/w dropping into upstate NY by 18z Wednesday. Plenty of dry air aloft with CAA and subsidence behind the departing trough will generate mostly sunny skies through the morning. In addition, we continue to see a strong pressure gradient between the sub-980mb low over Newfoundland, and a ~1024mb high over the southeast, maintaining strong west / northwest winds. These two factors will contribute to deep boundary layer mixing, and steep low level lapse rates. Lifted indices fall to around +5C in the afternoon. The s/w digging into northern New England will provide fairly strong DPVA in addition to some weak warm advection developing in the afternoon. This will provide strong forcing for ascent to get the ball rolling on possibly some weak convection. We see LIs rise to over +15C by the late evening, which is a decent signal for an unstable influence and some squall structures developing and moving through mainly northern and central New England in the afternoon. In addition, there will be a decent mid level jet associated with this s/w, extending down below 700mb. With ample mixing, we could see some 35kt+ gusts making it down to the surface, especially in any squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Congrats on widespread wind damage up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Wind and 10 degree temperature swings, fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 ok guys, if you'd rather track a 5% chance of a rumble of thunder, go ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Could be cool... wake me when it is done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 This is a good indication that its almost time to go into hibernation for the spring/summer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 squalls would be sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 This thread has my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Once this sharp trough lifts out of New England Tuesday night, it will drive upstream energy over James Bay south toward northern New England. The NAM is most robust with a s/w dropping into upstate NY by 18z Wednesday. Plenty of dry air aloft with CAA and subsidence behind the departing trough will generate mostly sunny skies through the morning. In addition, we continue to see a strong pressure gradient between the sub-980mb low over Newfoundland, and a ~1024mb high over the southeast, maintaining strong west / northwest winds. These two factors will contribute to deep boundary layer mixing, and steep low level lapse rates. Lifted indices fall to around +5C in the afternoon. The s/w digging into northern New England will provide fairly strong DPVA in addition to some weak warm advection developing in the afternoon. This will provide strong forcing for ascent to get the ball rolling on possibly some weak convection. We see LIs rise to over +15C by the late evening, which is a decent signal for an unstable influence and some squall structures developing and moving through mainly northern and central New England in the afternoon. In addition, there will be a decent mid level jet associated with this s/w, extending down below 700mb. With ample mixing, we could see some 35kt+ gusts making it down to the surface, especially in any squalls. Would the WINDEX idea apply here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 Would the WINDEX idea apply here? Sure some similar rules Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Would the WINDEX idea apply here? Yes of course but I forget the formula Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 NAM isn't quite as robust with this s/w, but the GFS has actually trended a little sharper. The signal is certainly still there for gusty winds and perhaps a few rain/snow squalls developing in the afternoon. Forecast soundings continue to show deep BL mixing, and even a sliver of CAPE above 850mb. A nice strong vortmax will be just the ticket to initiate some convective showers. Certainly more interesting than the "severe threat" today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 NAM isn't quite as robust with this s/w, but the GFS has actually trended a little sharper. The signal is certainly still there for gusty winds and perhaps a few rain/snow squalls developing in the afternoon. Forecast soundings continue to show deep BL mixing, and even a sliver of CAPE above 850mb. A nice strong vortmax will be just the ticket to initiate some convective showers. Certainly more interesting than the "severe threat" today Been a nice howling wind day, like the howl but the intermittent showers have put a lid on outside work on my day off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 Been a nice howling wind day, like the howl but the intermittent showers have put a lid on outside work on my day off. Today? Yeah seeing some nice wind speeds across SNE. Plymouth is still stuck under the inversion, so we are sitting at 36F with fog and calm winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Today? Yeah seeing some nice wind speeds across SNE. Plymouth is still stuck under the inversion, so we are sitting at 36F with fog and calm winds. Gust to 61 CC, wind cranking down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Wind cranking up, damn April would have been a great Windex day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 We definitely got the squalls in northern New England. Periods of snow showers through the afternoon in Plymouth. The mountains disappeared a number of times. Winds weren't all that impressive. General gusts around 30mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.