Thundersnow12 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Lets see if I still got the magical touch... from the MKX office BACKING UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO RESULT IN TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SRN WI AND NRN IL ON FRI AND SAT. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ALL EXTENDED GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THERMAL RIBBON... HOWEVER STRENGTH AND TIMING HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT. HI RES ECMWF HAS BEEN WAFFLING LAST DAY OR SO...AND HAS RETURNED TO SNOWIER SOLUTION...WITH 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT OVER SRN WI FRI NGT AND SAT. LATEST GEM HAS ALSO TRENDED TOWARD THIS WETTER SOLUTION...BUT CARRIES SFC LOW FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE GFS SLIGHTLY DRIER BUT WARMER. FOR NOW WL CARRY CHC POPS FOR -SN DURING THIS PERIOD BUT BEARS WATCHING. WL RETURN WORDING TO HWO FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINE EVENT. GEM ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chi-town wx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Ya, could be interesting. LOT barely mentions anything about it, but does have chc -sn throughout the period. Cold air looks like will still be in place from this cold shot coming tomorrow. GFS much less impressive attm also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I think it would have been a better thread if you said 80's and sunny this weekend. Maybe things would change lol. Good thread though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Per usual a lot of the area NWS's are being very conservative and broadbrushing the system with very light mention so far out. The system actually started on the GFS a good 5 days ago before it totally lost it, but the Euro and GEM have been relatively consistent. We shall see what happens. I will admit, for the first time of the season, i am checking every model run and counting the days. Welcome winter 2010-2011! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Per usual a lot of the area NWS's are being very conservative and broadbrushing the system with very light mention so far out. The system actually started on the GFS a good 5 days ago before it totally lost it, but the Euro and GEM have been relatively consistent. We shall see what happens. I will admit, for the first time of the season, i am checking every model run and counting the days. Welcome winter 2010-2011! In this case I am ok with that. This one is a tough one because it is a partial phase event over the Pacific: http://www.atmos.was...+2010112912///3 Models are going to be doing the flippity-flop for the next couple days most likely. Models, therefore, have a tough time in simulating how far south the wave develops and the amount of moisture it will have. Moreover models are progging this to be a surface frontal wave event in some aspects so there is potential for some pretty sharp snow gradients associated with frontal banding. It would be a bad idea for them to start pin pointing things at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Yeah I agree. Even though we all know the relative risk and potential with this thing, the NWS and broadcast media are smart not to get too cute with it yet. Even though the GEM, Euro and others have been relatively consistent with it, it's still a ways out there. Anyway, I can't wait to see the new GEM and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 FWIW, the GFS came south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 GFS gives S/C WI .5 QPF. Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Congrats Moneyman... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 GFS gives S/C WI .5 QPF. Lock it in. Congrats Moneyman... Haha yeah, congrats for jinxing yourself, now you prolly will get squat. Seriously though, I do hope you aren't getting too hyped yet on the placement of a surface frontal wave and trough phasing event 144 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Always a little odd when the GFS is the furthest north model. Of course that's subject to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 The new GFS keeps it further north than the earlier GEM and Euro runs, much like the 12z GFS. It is much wetter than the 12z though, pumping out 0.3-0.6" of QPF. The evolution of the storm is slower than the Euro and GEM by about 12hrs. It's all going to come down to where the baroclinic boundary parks itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Nah, I'm not excited at all. You never want to be in the bullseye 144+ hours out. Congrats Beau! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 The new GFS keeps it further north than the earlier GEM and Euro runs, much like the 12z GFS. It is much wetter than the 12z though, pumping out 0.3-0.6" of QPF. The evolution of the storm is slower than the Euro and GEM by about 12hrs. It's all going to come down to where the baroclinic boundary parks itself. Mostly right, and the amount of upper level wave phasing as well. The last supposed clipper null event that was hyped a lot a couple weeks ago for Indiana/IL/Iowa was a good example of a baroclinic boundary being significantly farther displaced than what models originally suggested because the OV storm ended up being considerably more intense than models were predicting. The baroclinic zone was shunted well to the south and the associated clipper took a huge dive south and missed everyone. A good learning example in model fail with low amplitude waves when the associated waves are still well over the Pacific and outside of the upper air raob network. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Mostly right, and the amount of upper level wave phasing as well. The last supposed clipper event that was hyped a lot a couple weeks ago for Indiana/IL/Iowa was a good example of a baroclinic boundary being significantly farther displaced than what models originally suggested because the OV storm ended up being considerably more intense than models were predicting. The baroclinic zone was shunted well to the south and the associated clipper took a huge dive south and missed everyone. A good learning example in model fail with low amplitude waves when the associated waves are still well over the Pacific and outside of the upper air raob network. Good point. I remember that quite well. The models handled that system very poorly right up to about 48hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 HEavy LES for, Alek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 HEavy LES for, Alek Chicago Storm Lakeshore= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 If this thing does pan out, I will be interested to see what the thermal profiles look like. Anyone know the current ground temps around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Well we do know that there's a bias for models to phase energy, and especially includes the GFS, which has been notorious for doing this in the past. I'm inclined for this to be 2 separate waves. We do know that there's a good chance there will be an upper high (subtropical) sitting over Mexico, so this will generally put a restriction on how far south the system can track. This was not the case with the previous clipper system, however Baro makes a good point in mentioning that this thing is still well outside the reach of our RAOB network, and still vulnerable to drastic adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 One thing that should help ground temperatures is the fact end of this week is supposed to be below freezing all day. At least here that is. Wed: High: 27 Low: 16 Thu: High: 27 Low: 17 Fri: High: 28 Low: 20 In Chicago: Wed: High: 29 Low: 19 Thu: High: 31 Low: 20 Fri: High: 31 Low: 23 So it looks to be below freezing in most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 If this thing does pan out, I will be interested to see what the thermal profiles look like. Anyone know the current ground temps around here? Not sure, need to hook my ground temp sensor back up. When we were cold a few days ago it was enough to fully freeze puddles and keep the heavy frost on the ground through the day with full sun...so i'm sure as long as air temps are around/below freezing snow would stick fairly well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 If this thing does pan out, I will be interested to see what the thermal profiles look like. Anyone know the current ground temps around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 If this thing does pan out, I will be interested to see what the thermal profiles look like. Anyone know the current ground temps around here? Not sure if this helps, but I found this on the IL Climatologist site. http://www.isws.illinois.edu/warm/soiltemp.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Well we do know that there's a bias for models to phase energy, and especially includes the GFS, which has been notorious for doing this in the past. I'm inclined for this to be 2 separate waves. We do know that there's a good chance there will be an upper high (subtropical) sitting over Mexico, so this will generally put a restriction on how far south the system can track. This was not the case with the previous clipper system, however Baro makes a good point in mentioning that this thing is still well outside the reach of our RAOB network, and still vulnerable to drastic adjustments. Yeah I agree, GFS is the most notorious with phasing. That said, I definitely won't deny the potential, especially if something along the lines of the 12Z Euro and to a degree the CMC were to develop. Cold side frontal banding and prolonged heavy snow with no worry of deep cyclogenesis and warm sector crap/dry slots...these things can be fun to watch. GFS is by far the least exciting and for now I am not considering it much since it has been all over the map with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Click on the north central map on this link. http://www.mwas.net/index.cfm?show=1&mapID=20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 HEavy LES for, Alek Chicago Storm Lakeshore= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 0z GGEM looks unchanged, albeit maybe 12 hours slower and a bit weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 Yeah I agree, GFS is the most notorious with phasing. That said, I definitely won't deny the potential, especially if something along the lines of the 12Z Euro and to a degree the CMC were to develop. Cold side frontal banding and prolonged heavy snow with no worry of deep cyclogenesis and warm sector crap/dry slots...these things can be fun to watch. GFS is by far the least exciting and for now I am not considering it much since it has been all over the map with this system. And then we'll get to see what the good ole NAM shows in the next few days lol I love events like these. nothing worse then being in the dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Gem looks like two pieces to me...first one gets into Wisconsin the dies..while a low in Arkansas takes over and the Laf crew to Ohio get hit good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Gem looks like two pieces to me...first one gets into Wisconsin the dies..while a low in Arkansas takes over and the Laf crew to Ohio get hit good. Eh, it's like 1-3"...but I'd take it in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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