dan88 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Irwin is strengthening in a hurry, 18z SHIPS was initialized with 50kt. Looks like TD10 is getting named as well,initialized with 35kt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 So, I guess I stand by my analysis from yesterday, as it seems like anticyclonic outflow associated with Irwin is having and effect on TD10 in the form of northerly shear. Although it doesn't look like the binary shear should be an issue for quite as long as I was originally thinking! 10E will probably be the dominant cyclone, but I hope it starts recurving faster soon to avoid weird interactions with 11E. It looks like the better scenario for a strong LF is S of PVR and a RIC as it accelerates NE... I would prefer it to also keep a distance from the base of the trough. In a couple of days, for sure! Although, I think it's not so much the trough itself that is threatening TD10, but really the subtropical jet to its south instead. That said, the trough looks to only push the jet further south and probably phase into a dual-jet structure, so the trough is certainly causing some problems! 12Z GFS analysis shows the jet south of the trough nicely: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Does it irritate anyone else when NHC starts talking about SHIPS/LGEM not making sense when the OFCL track is so much different than the GFS track? I mean, of course SHIPS/LGEM are going to show weakening after 72 hours, the GFS is going to have huge shear where the OFCL track is located. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share Posted October 6, 2011 By the way, for those who don't know Spanish, "Jova" is pronounced "HO-va". (The "J" makes an "H" sound.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Does it irritate anyone else when NHC starts talking about SHIPS/LGEM not making sense when the OFCL track is so much different than the GFS track? I mean, of course SHIPS/LGEM are going to show weakening after 72 hours, the GFS is going to have huge shear where the OFCL track is located. Stewart mentions it, but also says he is going with the HWRF. BTW, I had to go to an alternate source, NHC page discussions haven't updated, and it isn't my cache, I didn't view 11 am AST advisories at home. I like comparing the more classic cloud pattern irwin with the mondo cold cloud top Jova myself. It has been too long since I've seen nice TCs in proximity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 By the way, for those who don't know Spanish, "Jova" is pronounced "HO-va". (The "J" makes an "H" sound.) Kinda like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Does it irritate anyone else when NHC starts talking about SHIPS/LGEM not making sense when the OFCL track is so much different than the GFS track? I mean, of course SHIPS/LGEM are going to show weakening after 72 hours, the GFS is going to have huge shear where the OFCL track is located. I've always wondered whether they'd be better off initializing the SHIPS using the actual GFS vortex position instead of the offical forecast. Of course you can run into the problem of the GFS vortex tracking into a different environmental regime than the official track's environment, but it seems to occur less frequently than the current situation. Usually the GFS's environment and the official track's environment are quite similar anyways even when they are far apart spatially because the TC modulates the upper-level wind field to such a large degree. Of course all of this is assuming the presence of a well-developed TC in the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 I've always wondered whether they'd be better off initializing the SHIPS using the actual GFS vortex position instead of the offical forecast. Of course you can run into the problem of the GFS vortex tracking into a different environmental regime than the official track's environment, but it seems to occur less frequently than the current situation. Usually the GFS's environment and the official track's environment are quite similar anyways even when they are far apart spatially because the TC modulates the upper-level wind field to such a large degree. Of course all of this is assuming the presence of a well-developed TC in the GFS. Oh, hello! Nice to see you here. What are your thoughts Re: Jova's potential landfall location and intensity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 You have to give the Euro props for picking out the twin-cyclone scenario a couple of days ago. It looked weird at the time, and yet here we have it. Kinda cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 You have to give the Euro props for picking out the twin-cyclone scenario a couple of days ago. It looked weird at the time, and yet here we have it. Kinda cool. All I can say is: FINALLY SOME EXCITEMENT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 What I would give for a big steaming cup o' Jova Wednesday or Thursday in Texas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 Jova has some wicked convection: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Jova has some wicked convection: It's deep, but the circulation seems to be on the edge of the convection... Microwave doesn't look terribly impressive. Irwin on the other hand looks like a more impressive system. If Irwin keeps up it's impressive organization trend, Jova is going to have a much harder time getting better organized because Irwin is bigger and stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 It's deep, but the circulation seems to be on the edge of the convection... Microwave doesn't look terribly impressive. Irwin on the other hand looks like a more impressive system. If Irwin keeps up it's impressive organization trend, Jova is going to have a much harder time getting better organized because Irwin is bigger and stronger. Yeah, I was only commenting on the convection, not the organization. Regardless, it's interesting to see such deep convection over such a wide area after all of the pathetically dry systems in the NATL this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 The 8 pm PDT advisories are out. Both systems have strengthened. The latest forecast brings Jova ashore very near Pueto Vallarta as an 85-kt cyclone Monday evening. Crazily enough, the forecast for Irwin implies another hurricane impact in the same area about three days later-- with this one weakening as it approaches. Crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Oh, hello! Nice to see you here. What are your thoughts Re: Jova's potential landfall location and intensity? How Irwin's outflow impacts Jova is one question mark, but otherwise everything else looks good for at least gradual intensification over the next few days. I'm not really seeing too much shear on its final approach to Mexico either, and the oceanic heat content improves right up until the coast. At this point, I think a major hurricane landfall is a definite possibility, but I wouldn't be too confident yet until the nature of interaction (if any) with Irwin becomes apparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 How Irwin's outflow impacts Jova is one question mark, but otherwise everything else looks good for at least gradual intensification over the next few days. I'm not really seeing too much shear on its final approach to Mexico either, and the oceanic heat content improves right up until the coast. At this point, I think a major hurricane landfall is a definite possibility, but I wouldn't be too confident yet until the nature of interaction (if any) with Irwin becomes apparent. Cool, thanks very much. I did notice this interesting and relevant tidbit in the Discussion: WHILE THE INTERACTION BETWEEN JOVA AND IRWIN MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS STILL POSSIBLE....CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SYSTEMS WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH APART THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE DIRECT INTERACTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Cool, thanks very much. I did notice this interesting and relevant tidbit in the Discussion: WHILE THE INTERACTION BETWEEN JOVA AND IRWIN MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS STILL POSSIBLE....CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SYSTEMS WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH APART THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE DIRECT INTERACTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 As of 2 am PDT: * Irwin has been undergoing RI and is now a 70-kt 'cane. * Jova is slowly strengthening-- now up to 45 kt-- and the forecast remains essentially the same, bringing the center ashore near Puerto Vallarta late Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 The model trend of weakening Jova right before landfall continues. That is the most troubling aspect of this forecast for me. I still brought it ashore as a Cat 2/3 this morning, and I feel confident it will be there within 100 mi of the coast, but the RW shown in the models lowers my confidence at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Looks like shear has been letting up a bit, with the LLC now under very deep convection, though some NErly shear is still present. MW shows that it isn't very well organized, but with that kind of cold cloud tops and abating shear it will just be a matter of time. RI probability will be high this next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 ECMWF's forecast of Jova just before landfall in a little less than 4.5 days (952mb) Irwin a little more than 2 days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 How soon does Jorge have to leave to pick up Josh at Puerto Vallarta? OT- Jalisco is popular around here for its cheeses. I don't know if Customs would let Josh back into LAX with cheese. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 How soon does Jorge have to leave to pick up Josh at Puerto Vallarta? The Euro and GFS EnKF are both showing landfall Tuesday between 12z-18z. That's the time frame I would shoot for right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Happy Friday, everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 The Euro and GFS EnKF are both showing landfall Tuesday between 12z-18z. That's the time frame I would shoot for right now. Why do you think the specialized model is so fast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Why do you think the specialized model is so fast? Because his father, the GFS is hauling ass... around 1.5 days faster than the Euro. The GFS EnKF and CMC support the Euro... the Ukie is faster than the Euro, but a little slower than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 The Euro and GFS EnKF are both showing landfall Tuesday between 12z-18z. That's the time frame I would shoot for right now. The NHC has been hinting at Monday night or even faster, so I'm thinking to get out there early Sunday latest. (Sorry, I know this isn't the chase thread.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 The NHC has been hinting at Monday night or even faster, so I'm thinking to get out there early Sunday latest. (Sorry, I know this isn't the chase thread.) I think they will trend slower ... but there's always the possibility that the GFS might perform a coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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