HurricaneJosh Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share Posted October 6, 2011 Definitely have some definition in the circulations as per that colorized image. Yep-- they look like cyclones already. Can't wait for the upgrades-- I'm dying to see the initial forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 The binary interaction with 97E and 98E will be fascinating, because even though 97E is expected to be the weaker of the two systems (just based on slightly lower SSTs and OHC) it also looks to have a larger envelope. Thus while 98E might be stronger intensity wise, they could have equal pull on each others circulations. To make matter even more complicated it also appears there is a budding disturbance to the east of 98E that also has a shot at development in the medium range. Overall lots of players on the table... One of the more impressive ITCZ breakdowns I've seen in recent memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share Posted October 6, 2011 Ugh. Fascinating to you = annoying to me. I want a simple setup. Hopefully 97E just pulls way W and the thing to the E of 98E doesn't materialize. My bets are on 98E right now-- let's get it clean and isolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Interesting end to the epac season. Can't get much in the heart of the season then October explodes (or is about to). Very El Nino-ish, despite the ocean being anything but. Hmm-- maybe a 1957 type of scenario where you get one storm near Mexico then another one coming in from the wsw in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share Posted October 6, 2011 Interesting end to the epac season. Can't get much in the heart of the season then October explodes (or is about to). Very El Nino-ish, despite the ocean being anything but. Hmm-- maybe a 1957 type of scenario where you get one storm near Mexico then another one coming in from the wsw in October. Oh, hey! How are you? DO you think one of these-- perhaps 98E-- might become a landfalling 'cane? P.S. While it's late-season for the EPAC, October is actually the climatological peak for major landfalling 'canes on MX's W coast-- so this burst of potential coastal threats right now feels about on schedule to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Yep-- they look like cyclones already. Can't wait for the upgrades-- I'm dying to see the initial forecasts. Better wait a few days then. Cause you wouldn't like the forecasts if they came out now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share Posted October 6, 2011 Better wait a few days then. Cause you wouldn't like the forecasts if they came out now... Thanks, fozziebear. I think the prognosis for 98E could look OK. The Euro shows it coming ashore as a decent system. I think 97E is a lost cause-- just too far our there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Thanks, fozziebear. I think the prognosis for 98E could look OK. The Euro shows it coming ashore as a decent system. I think 97E is a lost cause-- just too far our there. If they released a forecast now... Speculation of course. 65kt/Manzanillo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 By the way, the invests are mislabeled on the RAL-TC page, and all products are flipped http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share Posted October 6, 2011 If they released a forecast now... Speculation of course. 65kt/Manzanillo Agreed. And that would be an awesome first forecast. P.S. You cool with the Freeport 1949 verdict? Interested to hear your reaction to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share Posted October 6, 2011 Invest 98E is now TD 10E. The track forecast is awesome-- but the intensity forecast peaks at a rather blah 55 kt. They seems to be following the SHIPs, which shows increasing shear as it approaches the coast. The other models are more aggro, including the HWRF, which is pure porn-- showing it at 120 kt by Day 5 and still strengthening as it approaches the coast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share Posted October 6, 2011 If they released a forecast now... Speculation of course. 65kt/Manzanillo Pretty good. The first official forecast is 55 kt/Manzanillo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share Posted October 6, 2011 As of 11 pm PDT, the cherry (97E) is upgraded to 100%-- should pop at any time. I wonder which'll be Irwin and which Jova. I hope 97E gets named first, so TD 10E is Jova. That's an awesome name; I want to chase a Jova. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 @ 0zHWRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share Posted October 6, 2011 @ 0zHWRF It's hawt. Stop laughing at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 It's hawt. Stop laughing at it. You must be thinking about the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share Posted October 6, 2011 You must be thinking about the 18z run. I believe I'm looking at the early 00Z guidance. What are you seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 I believe I'm looking at the early 00Z guidance. What are you seeing? 145.392 kts/923 Of course at 900mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share Posted October 6, 2011 145.392 kts/923 Of course at 900mb Like I said, it's hawt. I don't see why you'd laugh at that. Do you laugh at nudie pictures of hawt chicks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Even the 0z GFDL gets bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share Posted October 6, 2011 The 00Z Euro is kind of weird. It brings TD 10E ashore around Day 5 as a strong TS, it seems. 98E follows it, and apparently stalls just offshore during Days 8-9 as a very strong, very small microcane-- then drifts slowly away from the coast starting Day 10. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share Posted October 6, 2011 Advisories for TD 11E will be initiated at 2 am PDT. It'll be interesting to see that forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share Posted October 6, 2011 Lost o' news at 2 am PDT: * TD 10E should become a TS today. The Discussion notes that most of the intensity guidance has bumped up a bit, and the new forecast makes it a hurricane as it approaches the MX coast later in the forecast period. * 98E is upgraded to TD 11E. The forecast has it making a big wide recurve-- turning N near 120W and then accelerating ENE in the general direction of the MX coast as a moderate TS. Avila's bone-dry Discussion hints at this system possibly combining with TD 10E, as per the GFS, although that would seem a bit strange. Lots to watch over the next couple of days. Lord knows how this will all evolve. It's an odd map, with these two cyclone so near each other, and taking such similar paths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 10E will probably be the dominant cyclone, but I hope it starts recurving faster soon to avoid weird interactions with 11E. It looks like the better scenario for a strong LF is S of PVR and a RIC as it accelerates NE... I would prefer it to also keep a distance from the base of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 It looks like the better scenario for a strong LF is S of PVR and a RIC as it accelerates NE... I would prefer it to also keep a distance from the base of the trough. I swear to god you get the forecast I send out to clients every morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 SSD site has an Irwin (11E) already... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Irwin is indeed a storm, and 10E now forecast to hit Mexico as a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 I swear to god you get the forecast I send out to clients every morning Yeah, it looks the other way to me also, many times. I'm about to write something, and I just have to reply to your comment and say "yeah, I agree". Good, I can go down in flames with company now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Like I said, it's hawt. I don't see why you'd laugh at that. Do you laugh at nudie pictures of hawt chicks? Maybe the HWRF is like nude anime chicks. Not quite real enough to believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share Posted October 6, 2011 10E will probably be the dominant cyclone, but I hope it starts recurving faster soon to avoid weird interactions with 11E. It looks like the better scenario for a strong LF is S of PVR and a RIC as it accelerates NE... I would prefer it to also keep a distance from the base of the trough. Oh. There you are. Irwin is indeed a storm, and 10E now forecast to hit Mexico as a hurricane. Yep-- I mentioned this in the 2 am PDT update (above). I swear to god you get the forecast I send out to clients every morning Yeah, it looks the other way to me also, many times. I'm about to write something, and I just have to reply to your comment and say "yeah, I agree". Good, I can go down in flames with company now Get a room. Maybe the HWRF is like nude anime chicks. Not quite real enough to believe? Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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