Srain Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 The GFS is suggesting an impressive landfalling cyclone in Sinaloa in the long range. Just perhaps a chance for Josh to head S to his 'backyard' for a nice intercept... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 4, 2011 Author Share Posted October 4, 2011 The GFS is suggesting an impressive landfalling cyclone in Sinaloa in the long range. Just perhaps a chance for Josh to head S to his 'backyard' for a nice intercept... What a treasured friend you are to say such kind things like this. I am edging slowly into an optimistic mindset after weeks of deep tropical depression. Adam's and Jorge's heartwarming posts were helpful today-- it was nice to see some meaty analysis in this thread after I'd been talking to myself for days. Anxiously awaiting the 00Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 4, 2011 Author Share Posted October 4, 2011 Weird-- this thread indicates 32 guests are viewing it. Since when was EPAC tropical action such a hot topic? Who are all these mysterious lurkers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 4, 2011 Author Share Posted October 4, 2011 Anxiously awaiting the 00Z Euro. And it's basically sticking to the same, "twin-cyclone" solution: two systems form around Day 6, with the closer, stronger one coming ashore on the S coast (in Michoacan or Guerrero) around Day 8 and the other one still well offshore and only moving slowly at Day 10. We're in one of these annoying loops with the Euro, where it keeps showing the interesting action in 8-10 days, despite the fact that a couple of days have now passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Weird-- this thread indicates 32 guests are viewing it. Since when was EPAC tropical action such a hot topic? Who are all these mysterious lurkers? Well, when there's nothing else to watch (seriously, no severe wx currently, tropical stuff elsewhere, or other goings on) it's either this or OT (I've been mainly checking out the Sports threads) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 4, 2011 Author Share Posted October 4, 2011 Well, when there's nothing else to watch (seriously, no severe wx currently, tropical stuff elsewhere, or other goings on) it's either this or OT (I've been mainly checking out the Sports threads) Well, I don't mind the company. This thread can get a little lonely sometimes. It's only for the hardcore tropical nerds-- which is part of what makes it cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 On the other hand, if there was another Kenna or Pauline that might be another story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 4, 2011 Author Share Posted October 4, 2011 On the other hand, if there was another Kenna or Pauline that might be another story For sure. But the nice thing about this basin: even when there are big events, the discussion group doesn't get too large-- it tends to stay restricted to the tropical nerds/snobs. The East Coast IMBY crowd has no interest in what happens on this side-- even if it's a Cat 5 heading for Puerto Vallarta! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 And it's basically sticking to the same, "twin-cyclone" solution: two systems form around Day 6, with the closer, stronger one coming ashore on the S coast (in Michoacan or Guerrero) around Day 8 and the other one still well offshore and only moving slowly at Day 10. We're in one of these annoying loops with the Euro, where it keeps showing the interesting action in 8-10 days, despite the fact that a couple of days have now passed. Yep. No real change to any of the thoughts posted yesterday. Basically just waiting for some new piece of information at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 It is inside the resolution chop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 It is inside the resolution chop. The GFS and GFS EnKF both favor the farther west/north solutions, while the Euro and its ensembles favor the farther east/south ones. Nothing really screaming at me either way to break the tie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Yep. No real change to any of the thoughts posted yesterday. Basically just waiting for some new piece of information at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 4, 2011 Author Share Posted October 4, 2011 Lazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 4, 2011 Author Share Posted October 4, 2011 The 12Z Euro is sticking with the twin-cyclone solution, with the closer one coming ashore on an apparent strengthening trend near Manzanillo around Day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 The 12Z Euro is sticking with the twin-cyclone solution, with the closer one coming ashore on an apparent strengthening trend near Manzanillo around Day 7. Just south of Tecoman... not strengthening, more like steady state...but it looks like a cane... but those are perks...what's important is that most global models are hinting at a very active pattern for MX.... the CMC is hilarious, it looks like MX is a magnet, with four cyclones aiming at it at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 4, 2011 Author Share Posted October 4, 2011 Just south of Tecoman... not strengthening, more like steady state...but it looks like a cane... but those are perks...what's important is that most global models are hinting at a very active pattern for MX.... the CMC is hilarious, it looks like MX is a magnet, with four cyclones aiming at it at the same time. Well, I said around Manzanillo. And comparing Day 7 and Day 6, Day 7 looks stronger, doesn't it? Anyhoo, as you said, these are just details. Let's celebrate the big picture together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 5, 2011 Author Share Posted October 5, 2011 The 00Z Euro sticks rigidly to the twin-cyclone solution that it's been showing for many runs now. By Day 4, there are two distinct entities-- a developing low near 110W and a bona-fide cyclone way out near 120W. Both head ENE, toward the coast, making landfall in Jalisco on Days 6 and 8, respectively, as significant cyclones. It would be a bizarre course of events if it verified: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 The 00Z Euro sticks rigidly to the twin-cyclone solution that it's been showing for many runs now. By Day 4, there are two distinct entities-- a developing low near 110W and a bona-fide cyclone way out near 120W. Both head ENE, toward the coast, making landfall in Jalisco on Days 6 and 8, respectively, as significant cyclones. It would be a bizarre course of events if it verified: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 5, 2011 Author Share Posted October 5, 2011 There's now a Mandarin and a Lemon in the EPAC. Are these the twin cyclones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 There's now a Mandarin and a Lemon in the EPAC. Are these the twin cyclones? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 5, 2011 Author Share Posted October 5, 2011 Yes. So are you buying that twin-cyclone solution from the Euro? It’s been insisting on it run after run-- but it looks a bit novel, doesn't it? How strong would these systems be-- and which, in your opinion, would be the dominant/stronger one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 5, 2011 Author Share Posted October 5, 2011 The Mandarin (center) is up to 50% this morning. Looks pretty good. The Lemon (at the E edge of the view) is a much smaller system: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 So are you buying that twin-cyclone solution from the Euro? It’s been insisting on it run after run-- but it looks a bit novel, doesn't it? How strong would these systems be-- and which, in your opinion, would be the dominant/stronger one? I think the Euro has the right idea. Conditions should be conducive to multiple cyclogenesis events. The GFS EnKF is showing a similar solution. I think the farther east storm would be the stronger of the two. The hard part right now is that the Euro is showing the system rapidly weakening in 6-12 hours before landfall and I'm not sure why. Could be destructive interaction with the trough. I'm really not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 5, 2011 Author Share Posted October 5, 2011 I think the Euro has the right idea. Conditions should be conducive to multiple cyclogenesis events. The GFS EnKF is showing a similar solution. I think the farther east storm would be the stronger of the two. The hard part right now is that the Euro is showing the system rapidly weakening in 6-12 hours before landfall and I'm not sure why. Could be destructive interaction with the trough. I'm really not sure. OK, gotcha. So that potentially stronger storm would the smaller system that's currently the Lemon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 OK, gotcha. So that potentially stronger storm would the smaller system that's currently the Lemon? Yeah. It would make more sense since it will stay farther south over better SSTs compared to the storm farther west, since they will be exposed to similar synoptic environments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 I see two new Invests up. 97E and 98E. Finally some 'action'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 I have a feeling that 97E may mean some trouble for 98E in terms of TC outflow-induced shear early on, while the two remain close to each other. Although their relative spacing would normally suggest little influence on 98 from 97, 97 appears to be forming into a massive system, so its long-range effects should be felt further away from normal. Think of Earl and Fiona, when the EC was far too aggressive with the latter. That said, Earl and Fiona became closer together with time. The two systems, as it appears now, should pull further apart, giving 98E a chance to finally intensify day 4+. Beyond that timeframe is anyone's guess, but conditions look to be very favorable before landfall. We'll see if there's enough of a circulation left in a few days, but at this time, I'm on board for a landfall between Puerto Vallarta and Acapulco as a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 5, 2011 Author Share Posted October 5, 2011 I have a feeling that 97E may mean some trouble for 98E in terms of TC outflow-induced shear early on, while the two remain close to each other. Although their relative spacing would normally suggest little influence on 98 from 97, 97 appears to be forming into a massive system, so its long-range effects should be felt further away from normal. Think of Earl and Fiona, when the EC was far too aggressive with the latter. That said, Earl and Fiona became closer together with time. The two systems, as it appears now, should pull further apart, giving 98E a chance to finally intensify day 4+. Beyond that timeframe is anyone's guess, but conditions look to be very favorable before landfall. We'll see if there's enough of a circulation left in a few days, but at this time, I'm on board for a landfall between Puerto Vallarta and Acapulco as a hurricane. Lots of juicy stuff in this post-- thanks! Yeah, it's looking like 97E might stay way offshore whereas 98E might be the one that threatens MX in a few days. At least, that's what the 12Z Euro suggests. Oh, each has been upgraded this afternoon: 97E is not a Cherry and 98E is now a Mandarin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share Posted October 6, 2011 Twin cherries now-- both at 80%: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Twin cherries now-- both at 80%: Definitely have some definition in the circulations as per that colorized image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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