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Tornado Watch 3/29


Jim Martin

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494

WWUS20 KWNS 292018

SEL2

SPC WW 292018

LAZ000-MSZ000-CWZ000-300300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 72

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

320 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN LOUISIANA

SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKE

CHARLES LOUISIANA TO 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MS THIS

AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE

ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF A RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN

PORTIONS OF LA/MS. VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS

WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE WARM

FRONT...WITH SEVERE HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25020.

...GUYER/HART

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA

428 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN ST. JAMES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

CENTRAL ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 425 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER ST. JAMES

PARISH...OR 9 MILES WEST OF RESERVE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

RURAL ST. JAMES PARISH AT 440 PM CDT

RURAL ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH AT 440 PM CDT

Stolen from MSP on Texas/Mexico thread...

CropperCapture46.png

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Making a beeline for New Orleans.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA

515 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

LAC089-095-292230-

/O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0032.000000T0000Z-110329T2230Z/

ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST LA-ST. CHARLES LA-

515 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR

NORTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES AND CENTRAL ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISHES...

AT 511 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS

TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RESERVE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

LAPLACE BY 520 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM HAS PRODUCED REPORTED HAIL

UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. POWER WAS REPORTED OUT IN RESERVE BY A NWS

COOPERATIVE OBSERVER.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0308

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0647 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA/SRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 72...

VALID 292347Z - 300145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 72 CONTINUES.

A SYNOPTIC BAROCLINIC ZONE IS DRAPED FROM NEAR LCH TO JUST NORTH OF

BTR TO 25 MILES SSE OF ASD. THIS FEATURE IS LIFTING NWD AS A WARM

FRONT OVER SERN LA. SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER

60S AND LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHERE 23Z RUC OBJECTIVE

ANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG. THIS FRONT IS

FORECAST TO BE NUDGED INTO SRN MS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS BY

INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IS

DEVELOPING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THIS WARM FRONT...AND THIS WILL

CONTINUE TO OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING AS DEEP-LAYER ASCENT INCREASES.

FARTHER TO THE NORTH...A SECONDARY/MESOSCALE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM

S-CNTRL INTO SERN MS...AND IS FOLLOWED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND

MIDDLE 60S. BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...MODEST

CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR A SURFACE-BASED PARCEL WILL RESULT IN A

CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AS

THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD...THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY

BECOME SURFACE BASED.

MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /52 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR PER VWP

AT LIX/ IS ALLOWING CONVECTION TO EXHIBIT SUPERCELLULAR

CHARACTERISTICS...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING

HOURS. LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE

NEXT FEW HOURS...PARTICULARLY INVOF THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT...AS A

LOW-LEVEL JET MATERIALIZES EAST OF A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM

THE OZARKS TOWARD THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO

RESULT IN AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ACROSS WW72 THROUGH

THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS. THE CONVECTION

COULD ALSO GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS/LINE

SEGMENTS...WITH AN ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WINDS.

..COHEN.. 03/29/2011

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA

806 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

LAC075-087-300115-

/O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0034.000000T0000Z-110330T0115Z/

ST. BERNARD LA-PLAQUEMINES LA-

806 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR NORTH

CENTRAL PLAQUEMINES AND SOUTHWESTERN ST. BERNARD PARISHES...

AT 802 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED POSSIBLE TORNADO

DAMAGE WITH THIS STORM. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER PLAQUEMINES

PARISH...OR 14 MILES NORTH OF PORT SULPHUR...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF

BALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

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Just ran 01Z Severe Weather Threat Analysis across the S. TX through S. MS area. Showing the highest threat for severe weather over the Lafayette, LA/Beaumont, TX/New Orleans to Baton Rouge, LA. Current surface CAPE's around 1400-1700(j/kg), EHI are in that favorable zone of 1.2 to 1.7 and 0-3KM SRH around 220. So a good amount of shear and potential for F2 type Tornadoes across this area. Outside of this, winds around 50kts and hail around 1" are possible. City specific analysis is uploaded http://smartwxmodel.net/severe.pdf.

usa.jpg

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HOLY SH*T

0732 PM TSTM WND GST BELLE CHASSE 29.85N 90.00W

03/29/2011 M100 MPH PLAQUEMINES LA EMERGENCY MNGR

PARISH GOVERNMENT OFFICE MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 100 MPH

AT THE END OF AVENUE G AND MAIN STREET NEAR PLAQUIMINES

PRIDE.

Wow thats pretty insane.

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smart model whiffed on the rio grande action...nasty supercell out there tonight

Just ran 01Z Severe Weather Threat Analysis across the S. TX through S. MS area. Showing the highest threat for severe weather over the Lafayette, LA/Beaumont, TX/New Orleans to Baton Rouge, LA. Current surface CAPE's around 1400-1700(j/kg), EHI are in that favorable zone of 1.2 to 1.7 and 0-3KM SRH around 220. So a good amount of shear and potential for F2 type Tornadoes across this area. Outside of this, winds around 50kts and hail around 1" are possible. City specific analysis is uploaded http://smartwxmodel.net/severe.pdf.

usa.jpg

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