HoarfrostHubb Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Wait, I didn't say anything about this last winter though - sure. Agreed. Any above average winter in snow and cold is good if you are a winter weather enthusiast. That was all regarding what the 00z model suite was painting. That said, all one need to do is b**ch and complain the loudest and viola - the 12z 240 hour GFS is pubic hair away from something Biblical... So that character of satan's poop model runs swung pretty wildly toward angel bush. Again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 The Euro pattern day 6-7 is a classic example of how wavelength shortening this time of year can lead to amplification. Yea....pattern blows, but thankfully the pattern no longer matters because wavelength shortening renders it a crapshoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Wait, I didn't say anything about this last winter though - sure. Agreed. Any above average winter in snow and cold is good if you are a winter weather enthusiast. That was all regarding what the 00z model suite was painting. That said, all one need to do is b**ch and complain the loudest and viola - the 12z 240 hour GFS is pubic hair away from something Biblical... So that character of satan's poop model runs swung pretty wildly toward angel bush. It's all good.....I see why many are frustrated, but I still think something is in the offing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 LMAO at your screenname or is that your real name? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 tip, can you give me an updte on your ideas for northern NE with this upcoming event? I have a 400 mile drive to Warren, Vt with a 2 year old and a wife who will be no less than miserable if I drag them both up there for 3 days of rain from Wednesday to Saturday. Any chnace this isn;t a compelete washout? Thx. It depends on where you are going ...elevation and so forth, how far N, west or east side of which cordillera (Greens or Whites). The general concept for this next event is warmer though, because there is no antecedent polar high arming into NW New England from the Canadian prairies... That should make any inside slider less availing of cold. That said ...you get up around 4,000" elevation in March, heh, all bets are off... I've seen graupel and snow on Mt Washington in early June, while it was 73F with a gusty west wind and instability sprinkles down here in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 I'll be heading to beautiful Iowa tomorrow morning and returning Friday evening. I sure do hope there's some snow remaining when I do! If not, time to prepare the fires. 27.6/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 Again? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_264.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 epic flooding.. bank on it The Thursday/Friday event could be interesting in terms of hydro issues (where's Ginx?) if we can get this thing to slow down any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 The end of the week system looks VERY interesting, especially in regards to flooding potential. We saw quite a bit of flooding issues with this past system and with continued snow melt through the rest of the week along with already saturated grounds we could see some major flooding issues towards the end of the week, even more than we saw with this past system. Parts of CT were actually hit fairly hard as more rain fell that what models hinted at. Another 1-3'' (even more) could create some serious issues in places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I thiink the this past storm and this coming one will have worked in tandem for SNE wrt being a controlled disaster wrtt flooding issues. A very signifcant amount of snow was lost in the weekend warmth and rain. That combo released a lot of water but not in any real major flooding issue way. This next system will likely do something similar with mild conditions. Also similar will be the tendency to keep the heaviest qpf west. So, there will be a lot of water again, but after several days hiatus. I expect there could be flooding on the smaller rivers/streams in SNE, but I think the bigger issues will be 1) in the areas that had more wintry weather over the weekend, primarily NNE/NYS and 2) perhaps some signifcant rising on the main rivers downstream as the cumulative effects of the melt/rain is felt. Of course, if the heavier rains shift a little further east, the small stream issues would become more significant. To clarify--it will be a lot of water from the two events and melt. But, the spacing of the rain will have this being a much more bearable release of water than what could have taken place. At least tha'ts my two cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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