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March 7th-9th Potential Storm

wisconsinwx

By wisconsinwx,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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prinsburg_wx

prinsburg_wx

Posted
Posted

Euro still strong with the ejecting low but has a different height field config this run once again with the low tracking a bit farther NW than the 0Z. Still a lot to work out.

here's the LBF euro qpf

TUE 06Z 08-MAR   0.0    -1.3    1010      86      91    0.01     550     542    
TUE 12Z 08-MAR  -0.4    -2.8    1005      95     100    0.22     547     544    
TUE 18Z 08-MAR  -0.3    -2.5    1002      97      96    0.21     542     541    
WED 00Z 09-MAR  -1.9    -3.7    1007      95      89    0.13     543     537    
WED 06Z 09-MAR  -6.0    -8.2    1016      86      98    0.05     544     531    
WED 12Z 09-MAR  -9.5    -9.9    1022      80      86    0.01     545     528

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

here's the LBF euro qpf

TUE 06Z 08-MAR   0.0    -1.3    1010      86      91    0.01 	550 	542    
TUE 12Z 08-MAR  -0.4    -2.8    1005      95 	100    0.22 	547 	544    
TUE 18Z 08-MAR  -0.3    -2.5    1002      97      96    0.21 	542 	541    
WED 00Z 09-MAR  -1.9    -3.7    1007      95      89    0.13 	543 	537    
WED 06Z 09-MAR  -6.0    -8.2    1016      86      98    0.05 	544 	531    
WED 12Z 09-MAR  -9.5    -9.9    1022      80      86    0.01 	545 	528

How does it do for you and GFK?

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Harry

Harry

Posted
Posted

gets down to 992 in the plains then gets to 1000. Models occluding it too quickly?

Possible but this thing has cut off written all over it ( look at the N.H. Pipeline becoming clogged which is typically when you start getting these cut off lows ) which if it does then that may change the outcome for many. Not saying it does happen. Something to watch anyways.

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Stevo6899

Stevo6899

Posted
Posted

Possible but this thing has cut off written all over it ( look at the N.H. Pipeline becoming clogged which is typically when you start getting these cut off lows ) which if it does then that may change the outcome for many. Not saying it does happen. Something to watch anyways.

not sure what causes a cut off low but n.h. pipeline? care to elaborate?

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Harry

Harry

Posted
Posted

not sure what causes a cut off low but n.h. pipeline? care to elaborate?

Give me a short bit ( Dont wanna piss off clients ) and i'll post a euro image as it would probably be better to show then try to explain. Gotta run in a couple of minutes anyways.

The short of it is not much can move up into Canada etc. Note how when this system is coming in our weekend stuff is still along/near the eastcoast as it has more stuff ahead of it and still have the PV in Canada preventing it from going that route and thus clogging up the pipline. Cheesy expression i suppose. Maybe baro can simplify it better.

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Harry

Harry

Posted
Posted

Yup, that is what I thought as well. PV in canada is preventing it from going due east, hence the NE/NNE movement once it gets into C. Iowa.

Wrong. The PV ( If there ) would keep it moving more easterly/ene ( Till reaching the GL or ne ) as we have seen time and time again going back to December. Storms don't run into the PV unless it is a phase and well then we have a big ole bomb. Yes many times the models have suggested that ( especially in this time range of day 5-9/120+hrs out ) but nearly everyone of them have come back farther se and or ended up farther east and thus see the Ice Storm here/Snow in Detroit system a week and a half or so ago that rode along i70/40n. Thus if it were to come into the plains farther north then sure it will end up farther nw initially but may very well end up farther se as it gets farther east.

Again not saying that happens with this either. Just pointing out that it is rare to have systems running nne/ne into the PV. Naturally ofcourse there is other things that can prevent a ne/nne track as well and thus see blocking and or Greenland blocking and with this i refer you to the MSP Dec bomb. Tried to come nne/ne but got turned east ( even a little ese ) when it hit the blocking and got to around i80 in IA and thus ended up staying even just south of here.

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StormJr

StormJr

Posted
Posted

FWIW....18z GFS for MSP. 1.52" liquid. 20.3" of snow per Cobb Technique. 

110308/0600Z 108  11008KT  22.3F  SNOW    16:1| 0.4|| 0.4    0.024|| 0.02 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110308/0900Z 111  11009KT  23.2F  SNOW    12:1| 0.3|| 0.7    0.028|| 0.05 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110308/1200Z 114  11010KT  21.4F  SNOW    11:1| 0.3|| 1.0    0.031|| 0.08 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110308/1500Z 117  11012KT  21.9F  SNOW    10:1| 0.3|| 1.4    0.035|| 0.12 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110308/1800Z 120  11012KT  29.1F  SNOW    10:1| 0.1|| 1.5    0.012|| 0.13 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110308/2100Z 123  08011KT  31.8F  SNOW    16:1| 1.6|| 3.1    0.098|| 0.23 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110309/0000Z 126  08013KT  30.6F  SNOW    12:1| 2.2|| 5.2    0.181|| 0.41 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110309/0300Z 129  07015KT  28.2F  SNOW    13:1| 1.7|| 6.9    0.130|| 0.54 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110309/0600Z 132  06014KT  27.1F  SNOW    15:1| 9.2||16.1    0.594|| 1.13 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110309/0900Z 135  05011KT  29.1F  SNOW    14:1| 2.5||18.6    0.181|| 1.31 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110309/1200Z 138  01011KT  28.9F  SNOW 	8:1| 1.1||19.7    0.138|| 1.45 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110309/1500Z 141  35013KT  27.7F  SNOW 	9:1| 0.2||19.9    0.028|| 1.48 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110309/1800Z 144  33017KT  30.0F  SNOW 	9:1| 0.2||20.1    0.024|| 1.50 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110309/2100Z 147  32014KT  31.8F  SNOW    14:1| 0.2||20.3    0.016|| 1.52 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

An interesting special weather statement by Cheyenne, WY. I just happened to notice it since they are now my neighboring office.

...MAJOR WINTER STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NEXT WEEK...THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM...PERHAPS THE STRONGEST STORM OF THE SEASON SO FAR...IS INCREASING FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO OREGON SUNDAY...DROPPING SOUTH INTO NEVADA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS WINTER STORM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.THIS LOW LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD TAP INTO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS IT INTENSIFIES EAST OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT INTOTUESDAY. INITIALLY...A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...COLDER AIROVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA COULD BE DRAWN INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY THIS LOW. HEAVIEST SNOWS LOOK TODEVELOP EARLY MONDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAYAFTERNOON. NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE COULD SEE THE MOST SNOW SEEN SO FAR THISWINTER SEASON.THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NEXT WEEK ARE ENCOURAGED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO LATER FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE IMPACT OF THIS IMPENDING WEATHER SYSTEM.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

I will say the consistency overall amongst all guidance is rather impressive. Even the cruddy NAM is nearly exactly the same as the GFS at the end of its forecast--and the globals have mostly been very consistent for the last 4 days. That said--still plenty of variability and things to consider--and there is a lot that needs to go on in the Pacific before the Aleutian Low ejects.

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

Posted
Posted

I will say the consistency overall amongst all guidance is rather impressive. Even the cruddy NAM is nearly exactly the same as the GFS at the end of its forecast--and the globals have mostly been very consistent for the last 4 days. That said--still plenty of variability and things to consider--and there is a lot that needs to go on in the Pacific before the Aleutian Low ejects.

To me it looks like the NAM is a bit further south of the other models as it comes onshore of CA but not by too much. Will be interesting to watch this one unfold in the next few days.

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

Posted
Posted

one thing that caught my eye on the NAM is the difference in the amount of cold air and the much more impressive baroclinic zone. I wont post all the images but the H5 pattern between the too is also pretty different regarding what it does with the storm/trof out east and the NAM is also bringing down a wave around the big PV in canada and with this small s/w located in southern canada northeast of MN. The GFS is much weaker with the system in the east and doesn't have the s/w diving southeast in Canada.

NAM

GFS

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SpartyOn

SpartyOn

Posted
Posted

one thing that caught my eye on the NAM is the difference in the amount of cold air and the much more impressive baroclinic zone. I wont post all the images but the H5 pattern between the too is also pretty different regarding what it does with the storm/trof out east and the NAM is also bringing down a wave around the big PV in canada and with this small s/w located in southern canada northeast of MN. The GFS is much weaker with the system in the east and doesn't have the save in Canada.

NAM

GFS

Save? Lingo def please..Blocking?

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