Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 2

[msp]

Not sure but I think CLL is over the Ogallala Aquifer. You should be ok.

good point. yeah, i don't know for sure, but i think is from some aquifer if not the ogallala.

i do know that college station has a three-tiered water shortage plan and they're at level 1 now, iirc. i'm not quite sure what it would take to get to 2 or 3.

[Quixotic1]

good point. yeah, i don't know for sure, but i think is from some aquifer if not the ogallala.

i do know that college station has a three-tiered water shortage plan and they're at level 1 now, iirc. i'm not quite sure what it would take to get to 2 or 3.

Doh! You're absolutely correct. It's the Gulf Coastal Plains Aquifer. You're quite a bit aways from the Ogallala.

[msp]

Dare I say it? The streak may be over for DFW? Sprinkling right now outside. I was beginning to think virga was our official form of precip.

wasn't meant to be.

101F at 5pm

IAH, CLL, austin all over 100 too

[snowmanwx]

Abilene, Amarillo, Lubbock, and San Angelo all have set records for their respective most number of days ≥100°F in an entire year. August has yet to arrive, and days ≥100°F can occur into September and October in much of Texas.

[Quixotic1]

wasn't meant to be.

101F at 5pm

IAH, CLL, austin all over 100 too

Arrgh. Never seen it cloudy and get into the upper 90s........until today. Don't know if 90L is going to make it or not, but it could help moisten us up a bit.

[Hurricane]

I hate to root against Houston, but if I rooted for Houston, I'd be left high and dry.

[Srain]

Let's see how some 'local' 90L action can add to this Topic...I suspect others will join us...e-mail from Jeff this afternoon...

The strong tropical wave over the NW Caribbean Sea has slowed over the past 24 hours and has developed scattered deep convection in and around the wave axis (just south of the west part of Cuba). At this time visible satellite images do not show a closed low level circulation, and surface observations from the Cayman Islands show a strong wave axis and no closed surface low. However convection has been increasing over this area today and it is very possible that a surface low could form over the next 24 hours as the system moving toward the Yucatan Channel.

This wave will move slowly across the Gulf of Mexico over the next 48-72 hours with both upper level and surface conditions becoming increasingly favorable for development of this wave. Only drawback appears to be dry air over the central and western Gulf of Mexico which could limit some of the convection and organization. IF a low level center can form conditions look overall favorable for intensification and this falls in line with the latest model run intensity guidance showing the system developing into a closed tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico. The global models seem to still not be latching on to this system and show limited development while the short range NAM and hurricane model HWRF bring a tropical cyclone to the western Gulf of Mexico by early this weekend.

Potential Track:

Model guidance today has shifted northward from northern Mexico into the TX coast due to the migration of the ridge over TX toward the east starting tomorrow. Pattern is fairly similar to the record heat and drought of 1980, but appears the ridge this year is slightly more northward and northeastward than in August of 1980. As the ridge shifts eastward later this week, a weakness will be developing over the NW Gulf and TX allowing any tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico to turn toward the NW toward the weakness in the ridge. It is a fairly straightforward forecast track as any system will round the western side of the high over the SE US and impact the MX/TX coast. How fast the ridge breaks down and shifts eastward does lead to some amount of forecast track spread in the 72-96 hour period from the middle TX coast to NE MX. Additionally, there is no low level center at the moment, and where/when one forms could also impact the forecast track.

Impacts:

For now will go with some slow development possibly with the system forming into a tropical storm and heading for the NW Gulf of Mexico late this week. Will keep things conservative at this time with increased rain chances of 30-50% Friday-Saturday and back winds to the E starting Friday morning and increasing into the 10-25mph range. Should the system become a tropical storm or a hurricane significant forecast changes will be required for much of the TX coast including significant ramping up of tides and seas along the coast for Friday and Saturday and much greater rain chances.

Residents along the TX coast should closely monitor the progress of this system over the next 48 hours. Regardless of current developments, residents should review hurricane preparation plans.

[Srain]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE

YUCATAN CHANNEL CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND RADAR

DATA FROM MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT

50 MILES NORTHEAST OF CANCUN. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE

NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN

GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT

MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH

CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS

SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Potential tropical cyclone threat to the state of Texas later this week/weekend.

Significant forecast changes likely over the next 48 hours.

Discussion:

The strong tropical wave over the NW Caribbean Sea continues to become better organized with deep convection frequent near/over the wave axis. Radar out of Cancun and surface observations suggest that the strong mid level center may be working its way to the surface and developing a surface circulation, at this time it is weak and barely noted in the surface data and deep convection while persistent remains scattered.

Track:

Massive high pressure ridge holding over TX for months will be moving ENE toward the Carolinas over the next 48 hours allowing a weakness to develop over the NW Gulf of Mexico and the TX coast. The Caribbean system will track along the SW side of the ridge into this weakness or in the general direction of the TX coast. Global guidance is still not “seeing” what is happening in the Caribbean Sea and shows little development, so will toss it out as it is clear that a tropical system is forming. Will follow the expected ridge position and split the difference between the 2 hurricane forecasting models (GFDL and HWRF) and the multi model consensus package and indicate a potential threat from Galveston to Brownsville with highest threat right now from about Corpus Christi to Port O Connor. GFDL takes the system as a cat 1 hurricane into Galveston Bay while the HWRF takes the system as a strong cat 1 into the area near Corpus Christi. The multi model consensus is pegged just west of Port O Connor taking into account the GFS and GFDL upper coast and the HWRF and EURO southern coast.

Will get a better handle on the spreading track solutions by this evening as data from a USAF mission midday today is ingested into the models.

Intensity:

Overall size of the system is small which means it is vulnerable to surrounding atmospheric conditions moreso than a large system. The system is over very warm waters with temperatures in the mid to upper 80’s across much of the Gulf of Mexico and the NW Caribbean Sea. Upper level shear while strong over the northern Gulf of Mexico is light over the southern Gulf and forecast to gradually weekend as the southern plains high shifts eastward. The air mass over the southern Gulf does have a bit of dry air and this may be one reason as to why the convection has been fairly meager with this system and this could impact the system down the road as it moves across the Gulf. Overall conditions in the Gulf appear favorable for development and small system can spin up/down very quickly due to surrounding atmospheric changes (dry air intrusion, weak shear, ect). SHIPS guidance brings the system to a hurricane in the Gulf along with the GFDL and HWRF hurricane models, while the GFS, EURO, and CMC show very little development at all. Feel the big global models (GFS, EURO, and CMC) are missing this small system altogether and will not put much faith in their current forecast, while the hurricane models do seem high. For now will go with a blend of the two camps and lean toward the stronger solutions with a strong tropical storm or possibly a weak hurricane approaching the TX coast late Friday.

Impacts:

Feel it is best to await data from the aircraft this afternoon before going full force on coastal impacts. Forecast will no doubt need some significant changes with respect to seas, tides, rain changes, and rainfall amounts, along with wind forecast for Friday into Saturday. Will at least bump rain chances to 50% for Friday for areas south of I-10 and this could go much higher and hit those same areas with widespread 1-2 inches of rainfall. Coastal winds will begin to back from the SSW to ESE and then E Thursday night into Friday and increase. For now will hold winds below TS force over all areas awaiting NHC wind guidance if/once the system is declared. Based on current track guidance feel, TS force winds (40mph or greater) will be needed by Friday evening over parts of the middle and upper TX coast waters and coastal counties and spreading inland Friday night.

Preparations:

Residents along the TX coast should review hurricane preparation plans and be prepared to put these plans into effect over the next 48 hours. Closely monitor weather forecast for potential rapid changes and increasing impacts to the Texas coast.

[VAwxman]

Well that was 'special'. I still have no power and we have roof hail damage in the neighborhood and an Ike leak resurfaced. The hail splashing in the pool looked like W TX...

Wow I guess I wasn't far from this then. Never lost power but lights flicked and some small stuff blew over in the yard. I did not see any hail where I'm at.

Now on to whatever, if anything, comes of Don-to-be.

[Scott747]

From that 'mysterious' 57 fella -

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NJxLrIvgKk

[Ed Lizard]

From that 'mysterious' 57 fella -

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NJxLrIvgKk

That can't be him. 57 is a high endurance champion bicyclist, almost Tour de France grade. He posts about it all the time.

[Srain]

Afternoon update from Jeff:

Tropical cyclone developing in the SE Gulf of Mexico a threat to the Texas coast.

Advisories will likely be started at 400pm on either tropical depression or tropical storm Don. Visible satellite images shows a well defined low level cloud swirl on the northern edge of deep convection just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and the system is likely already a tropical cyclone. The aircraft mission was delayed this morning, but the plane is now en-route and depending on what it finds the system may be upgraded directly to a tropical storm.

Since we are already close to 60 hours out from landfall, tropical storm or hurricane watches may be issued for the TX coast with either the 400pm or 1000pm NHC advisory package assuming the plane finds a closed low level circulation. Onset of tropical storm force winds along the TX coast would be sometime in the late afternoon or early evening hours on Friday with increasing rainbands during the day on Friday spreading inland. Still a bit early to try and nail down the greatest area for impact, but the region between roughly Galveston Island to Corpus Christi appears in the greatest threat zone.

Will get detailed TX impacts out by 600pm this evening after a suite of conference calls and the NHC package around 400pm. Main threat right now appears to be rainfall and strong winds with storm surge a distance 3rd due to the small size of the system. Will address all impacts later this afternoon.

Residents along the Texas coast should review their hurricane preparation plans and be prepared to enact these plans on Thursday.<BR clear=all>

[My Weather Today]

That can't be him. 57 is a high endurance champion bicyclist, almost Tour de France grade. He posts about it all the time.

It's him. I've met and talked with him and believe that this matches up quite well. I remember one of his main hobbies was bicycle riding. Though you guys may want to remove that video from this forum. I know they don't like their videos and forecasts posted on the internet like this. Organizations pay them for those videos and products, so they don't like them posted for free. Just wanted to give you all a heads-up.

[bubba hotep]

Could the remnants of Don eventually be responsible for ending the 100 degree streak for the DFW area? Please!!

[Srain]

Afternoon e-mail from Jeff:

Tropical Storm forms in the SE Gulf of Mexico

Strong tropical storm or weak hurricane forecast to impact the TX coast late Friday

Preparations for the landfall of a hurricane along the middle TX coast should begin.

Hurricane/Tropical Storm -Watches/Warnings will be required for portions of the TX coast later tonight or early Thursday.

Discussion:

Tropical wave now in the SE Gulf of Mexico has organized enough to be declared a tropical cyclone and at 400pm advisories have been initiated. Recon aircraft have reported flight level winds of 47mph with gust to 52mph in the heavy convection on the southern side of the system. Reduction to the surface gives wind speeds strong enough to declare the system a tropical storm. Surface pressure recorded was 1001mb per a dropsonde. Per recon TS force winds only extend outward 45 miles from the center….this is a small system, so where it makes landfall is extremely important from an impact point of view.

Track:

Since this morning models have become more in line with a solution aiming at the middle TX coast around Matagorda Bay. 12Z model runs go as follows: HWRF near Matagorda Bay, GFS east side of Matagorda Bay, GFDL near Galveston, and EURO south of Corpus. Multi model consensus is just west of Port O Connor and so there is growing confidence of a landfall near/along the middle TX/coastal bend part of the TX coast. Still some uncertainty in the exact track as much depends on the high to the NE of TX and how much this high break down possibly allowing a more NW turn as the system nears the coast. Track looks very similar to Claudette 2003. Official track forecast has the center making landfall near Port O Connor around midnight Friday night.

Intensity:

Conditions over the Gulf of Mexico will be favorable for intensification and it appears the system will approach hurricane intensity at landfall. Latest HWRF run peaks the system as a 70kt hurricane prior to landfall and this is in line with the SHIPS intensity model also showing a hurricane, while the GFS and GFDL show little intensification. Small system such as this one can spin up very quickly if deep thunderstorms develop over their inner core and can undergo rapid intensification (Humberto 2007 comes to mind). Given at least 36 hours over the warm Gulf under fairly favorable conditions I would not rule out rapid intensification especially as the system nears the coast on Friday. Guidance shows a 19% chance of a 25kt increase in wind speed in the next 48 hours or 1.5 times what would normally be expected.

Impacts:

Will keep impacts fairly general for now and firm them up with greater detail on Thursday morning or later this evening once warnings/watches are issued. Again this is NOT forecast to be a large hurricane (like IKE), but a small system similar to Humberto so the impacts will be local to the area within about 50-60 miles of the center.

Rainfall:

An average of 3-5 inches can be expected along and about 80 miles to the east of the landfall area with isolated amounts of 6 inches possible. While the area is suffering from exceptional drought, rainfall of this magnitude in a short period of time (12-24 hours) may result in significant run off and rises on area watersheds.

Wind:

Strong damaging winds of 60-75mph with gust to near 80mph will be possible near and within about 40 miles of where the center crosses the coast. This puts the core of strong winds across the Matagorda Bay region south to near Rockport Friday night. Tropical Storm force winds will likely onset within the next 50 hours between Matagorda County and Aransas County. There remains some uncertainty with the forecast track and should the track shift to the north or the south the wind forecast will need to be updated.

Storm Surge:

Due to the small size of this system storm surge should be lower than 5 feet along the TX coast with the greatest surge near and just to the right (east) of where the center crosses the coast. Tides will run 1-3 feet above normal well to the east of the track due to wave run up including much of the upper TX coast. Tides of this level should not cause significant coastal flooding, but some overwash will be possible at times of high tide along the barrier islands. Storm surge values near the point of landfall may reach up to 3-4 feet (near or within Matagorda Bay)

Actions:

Residents along the middle and upper TX coast should review their hurricane plans and should be prepared to enact these plans first thing Thursday morning as we will be within 48 hours of the landfall of TS force winds by early Thursday.

For locations around Matagorda Bay (Calhoun, Jackson, Matagorda, Aransas counties):

Windows in structures along the coast (beachfront) should be covered and outside objects secured. Boats should be moored or removed to prevent damage.

Main focus should be on heavy rainfall and possible strong winds which may bring down trees and power poles near where the center moves ashore causing widespread power outages. Lower end category 1 winds of 75-80mph can cause minor roof and window damage and similar damage to that of hurricane Claudette in 2003 in the same region will be possible.

Will likely send another update late this evening as hurricane/TS watches/warnings will likely be issued at this time.

[msp]

103F again in college station...7 straight days of 101F or above. 25 days of 100+ this summer. at least tds drop to the low to mid 60s during the day.

and another 100 for DFW

[Srain]

There is some hope that TS Don will provide the area with some badly needed rain beginning late Thursday through Saturday. The HPC QPF discussion offers some hints...fingers crossed...

...TROPICAL STORM DON...

PER THE NHC... BY THE START OF DAY 2... 12Z/29... T.S. DON IS

FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 220 MI SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI. THE GUIDANCE

GENERALLY TAKES THIS STORM WEST NORTHWESTWARD AND THE OFFICIAL NHC

TRACK FORECAST PROJECTS A LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTER TEXAS FRI NIGHT

OR EARLY SAT MORNING. MODELS ARE TOO WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM AND

THUS THEIR QPFS ARE LIKELY WAY UNDERDONE. HPC QPF WILL ASSUME

SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR

ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND THEN WELL INLAND TOWARD THE HILL

COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN SHOULD FALL IN A

VERY PARCHED AREA OF THE STATE BUT THE SMALL SIZE AND STEADY

MOVEMENT SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FLOODING. FEEDER BAND ENHANCED

RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE CENTER WITH GOOD INFLOW OFF THE

GULF BUT DID NOT GET CUTE WITH THE QPF AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE

POOR MODEL AGREEMENT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON DON.

HPC Short Range Forecast...

...TROPICAL STORM DON EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH GULF OF MEXICO

TOWARD TEXAS COAST...

...HEAVY RAINS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT

LAKES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

TROPICAL STORM DON IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK

THROUGH SATURDAY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST. PLEASE REFER

TO http://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON DON. DEEP

TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF COAST ... PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH

TROPICAL STORM DON ... WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE

FORECAST FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE UPPER TEXAS

COAST THROUGH FRIDAY ... WITH HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST

FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

[Ed Lizard]

With the shift Southward of reliable models and the official NHC track, I think we're going to miss what could have been a joyous opportunity. I have some hopes for non-Don related rains today.

Heaviest rain missed the house yesterday, but we did get some. HPC map was based on the older, further North Don-cast

[bubba hotep]

I am heading down to Louisiana for a bit and will provide some "Louisiana Poster" input to this thread. Looks like a good chance to see some t-storms and I am looking forward to it.

[Quixotic1]

Dallas broke 100 again today. It was the last chance for awhile as forecast temps are 105 - 108 for the rest of the week.

29 days in a row now. If the forecast holds true, we will be 6 days away from the all time record of 42 in a row in 1980.

[My Weather Today]

Dallas broke 100 again today. It was the last chance for awhile as forecast temps are 105 - 108 for the rest of the week.

29 days in a row now. If the forecast holds true, we will be 6 days away from the all time record of 42 in a row in 1980.

Yea I know, painful. Very, very painful.

[bubba hotep]

Yea I know, painful. Very, very painful.

Just miserable! Most painful summer of my life so far but I am sure there is a heat wave weenie out there somewhere that is counting down the days and dissecting the 384 GFS panels.

[wall_cloud]

our streak at San Angelo finally ended today at 28, but we'll start another one tomorrow. July will be the hottest month on record, breaking the mark set LAST MONTH.

[bubba hotep]

our streak at San Angelo finally ended today at 28, but we'll start another one tomorrow. July will be the hottest month on record, breaking the mark set LAST MONTH.

Any thoughts on when this pattern breaks? Not like August is a time to look for cooler weather in Texas....

[wall_cloud]

we have at least 4-6 weeks left of this abominable summer!

[My Weather Today]

we have at least 4-6 weeks left of this abominable summer!

Thanks Dr. Kill-Joy. Seriously though. I don't like some of the long-range forecasts of La Nina continuing through this upcoming Fall & Winter. Please give me some good news or at least some hint of light at the end of this tunnel. This is kinda getting depressing.

[Roy]

I really, really hate La Nina.

It's dry in West Texas, but at least it rains/snows some. We got NO snow this past winter, and no rain to my recollection either.

Frankly, I am worried about the forecasts of La Nina again.

We are screwed. Maybe all the reservoirs will dry up before we get rain. This is starting to get scary.

[Ed Lizard]

Maybe 91L will take so long to get its act together that every recurve scenario misses.

Of course, that probably means landfall in Mexico, and limited rain for Texas, but maybe it helps West Texas.

I recall Summer 1995 having some tropical influenced rain when I worked a Summer in Midland.

[Quixotic1]

Maybe 91L will take so long to get its act together that every recurve scenario misses.

Of course, that probably means landfall in Mexico, and limited rain for Texas, but maybe it helps West Texas.

I recall Summer 1995 having some tropical influenced rain when I worked a Summer in Midland.

Probably Tropical Storm Dean which stalled out over west texas and bailed us all out of a drought.

BTW, not directed at anybody in particular but it's 101 at noon at DFW.