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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 2

Srain

By Srain,
in Central/Western States

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Srain

Srain

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For what it's worth, the NAM/WRF has been rather insistent on spinning up a spurious area of low pressure near Southern Louisiana and shifting that feature W under the Ridge. We will see...

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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For what it's worth, the NAM/WRF has been rather insistent on spinning up a spurious area of low pressure near Southern Louisiana and shifting that feature W under the Ridge. We will see...

Its only spurious if it doesn't happen. That said, I just played 500 mb and 700 mb loops on the North American NCEP page and I'm not exactly sure where the low pressure (mainly aloft) exactly develops/comes from.

I really expected an active seabreeze yesterday, the CRP and LCH soundings would suggest even less activity, but a glimpse out the window gives some reason for optimism.

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Srain

Srain

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The models are converging on a solution that depicts an expansive heat wave across much of the eastern 2/3 of the US. While the Ridge will be a player in some warm temperatures locally for the remainder of the week, shower/storms do look to increase as we get toward the weekend and early next week. It appears disturbances will be caught up in the deep easterly flow beneath the Ridge for our area bringing better chances of badly need rain for our drought parched region. NWS Brownsville offers a hint of where the deep tropical moisture may add to those rain chances...

THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH

OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BAY

OF CAMPECHE...COMBINED WITH THE INFLUX OF DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE

...MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

New Orleans:

THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL MODELS

INDICATE THAT SOME KIND OF WEAK HYBRID SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP

ON THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE

NORTHEAST GULF OR SOUTHEAST CONUS BY SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE

MODEL...A COUPLE OF THE MODELS DRIFT THIS LOW ACROSS THE LOCAL

AREA...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH IT.

THE LOCATION OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS

SYSTEM WOULD DEPEND GREATLY ON THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE LOW. DUE

TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST AND THE EVENTUAL

PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WILL LIMIT THE POP FORECAST AT 30 TO 40

PERCENT FOR THE TIME BEING BEYOND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THESE POPS WILL

LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN ONE DIRECTION OR THE OTHER DEPENDING

ON HOW THE SITUATION PANS OUT.

post-32-0-22838700-1310499650.png

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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Already 100ºF in Wichita Falls. FTW and DAL are at/above 100º, DFW is a balmy 99ºF.

In happier news, after a story about city crews in Pasa-git-down-dena being unable to cope with water line ruptures caused by our settling smectitic clay rich soils, HGX doppler shows a small shower or possible thunderstorm on the sea breeze, moving into Pasadena.

Window obs confirm it is dark in that direction.

95/70 now, dewpoint peaked at 76ºF this morning, local NWS office mentioned heat advisories may become neccesary because dewpoints aren't mixing down as they were when it was drier. Glass half full. half empty, more humid in the afternoons, but better rain chances.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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That is very impressive! We used always see smaller rope like ones while fishing down that way.

I never saw one that fat in the Gulf. Never seen a spout/tropical funnel touch down in Louisiana, the tropical funnels I did see were also much skinnier than that.

I have seen video of a very big one on Lake Ponchartrain, but for all I know, that was a supercell produced tornado rather than a true tropical funnel/spout.

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My Weather Today

My Weather Today

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

842 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2011

.DISCUSSION...

SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ROCKED LIBERTY AND MONTGOMERY COUNTY

THIS EVENING. SOME REPORTS OF HAIL AND TREES DOWN IN LIBERTY

COUNTY. THE VIL IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY WAS 80 FOR THREE VOLUME SCANS

SO WOULD EXPECT SOME DAMAGE REPORTS NEAR CUT AND SHOOT. ALL THE

ACTIVITY IS WINDING DOWN LEAVING JUST A SMATTERING OF LIGHT RAIN AND.

THIS SHOULD BE ENDING BY 10 PM. CXO PICKED UP OVER AN INCH OF RAIN

THIS EVENING AND UTS PICKED UP ABOUT A QUARTER INCH. THE THICK

CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE AREA WILL THIN AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT IT MIGHT

HANG ON LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.

THINGS LOOK INTERESTING FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PW AIR...EXCEEDING 2.3

INCHES COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING...RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM THIS

EVENINGS STORMS AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD GIVE THE

AREA A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN. WILL WAIT ON THE NAM/GFS GUIDANCE BUT FEEL

RAIN CHANCES COULD BE BUMPED UPWARD FOR FRIDAY. NEW ZONES OUT BY

1000 PM.

Rain chances always look good the day or two before in this area. I guess we shall see.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

842 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2011

.DISCUSSION...

SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ROCKED LIBERTY AND MONTGOMERY COUNTY

THIS EVENING. SOME REPORTS OF HAIL AND TREES DOWN IN LIBERTY

COUNTY. THE VIL IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY WAS 80 FOR THREE VOLUME SCANS

SO WOULD EXPECT SOME DAMAGE REPORTS NEAR CUT AND SHOOT. ALL THE

ACTIVITY IS WINDING DOWN LEAVING JUST A SMATTERING OF LIGHT RAIN AND.

THIS SHOULD BE ENDING BY 10 PM. CXO PICKED UP OVER AN INCH OF RAIN

THIS EVENING AND UTS PICKED UP ABOUT A QUARTER INCH. THE THICK

CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE AREA WILL THIN AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT IT MIGHT

HANG ON LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.

THINGS LOOK INTERESTING FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PW AIR...EXCEEDING 2.3

INCHES COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING...RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM THIS

EVENINGS STORMS AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD GIVE THE

AREA A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN. WILL WAIT ON THE NAM/GFS GUIDANCE BUT FEEL

RAIN CHANCES COULD BE BUMPED UPWARD FOR FRIDAY. NEW ZONES OUT BY

1000 PM.

Rain chances always look good the day or two before in this area. I guess we shall see.

Just enough sprinkles for rainbow action, but not enough to solidly wet the ground.

I'd shake the hand of a hail stone that could come down today.

LCH.gif

So far so good from the GFS

gfs_p36_042l.gif

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Srain

Srain

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Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Area looks to get a good shot at widespread rainfall today and again on Saturday.

Heavy to excessive rainfall will be possible.

Upper level ridge of high pressure which has parked over TX for the last several months has moved far enough northwest to allow a deep tropical easterly flow to develop on its underside over the region. This flow is brining a very moist air mass with PWS of at least 2.1 inches into the region along with small disturbances moving westward under the ridge. One such disturbance is currently off the coast of LA this morning and moving westward and will be the player for this afternoon. Widespread mid and high level clouds blanket the area this morning and this clearly shows the deep layer moisture is in place. This cloud cover will also help to inhibit heating some resulting in a later start of thunderstorms this afternoon. As the northern Gulf disturbance moves overhead, combined with surface heating, and remaining surface boundaries from yesterday expect thunderstorms to develop. Entire area looks like it will see some action this afternoon with storms going well into the evening moving SW across the region. Will not rule out a few pulse severe events as seen yesterday over Montgomery and Liberty counties with wind damage as the center cores of storms load with heavy rain and that comes crashing to the surface resulting in strong winds.

Will go with at least 50% coverage this afternoon although I do believe the coverage may even be higher. Very moist and saturated air column and high PWS air mass supports heavy rainfall today of 1-2 inches under the rainfall cores in about 30 minutes.

Saturday will feature a very similar setup however models are pinging away at a near inland coastal boundary…possibly an old outflow boundary from storms this afternoon south of I-10 that they fire off Saturday afternoon. Storm motions look slower and this raises the threat for excessive rainfall given PWS remaining in the 2.1-2.3 inch range. Could see rainfall rates approach 3-4 inches per hour under the stronger cells on Saturday and given the slower storm motion this may result in rapid urban flash flooding of low lying areas and roadways. Overall extremely dry ground should help mitigate a larger flood threat.

Air mass really never dries out and upper ridge reaming to our north into the middle of next week which gives us a 30-40% rain chance each afternoon. Rainfall today and Saturday may actually help out the drought situation as it will be more widespread, with scattered daily summer type stuff going into next week.

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My Weather Today

My Weather Today

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The amount of fun in the Gulf may rob the local area of maximum fun.

Like I said before, chances always look good days preceeding the event. Though other isolated areas saw beneficial amounts, no rain for me today. I kinda suspected this may happen Friday since I've seen this type of scenario play out many times in the past.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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seTX east of I-45 is seeing some healthy light rains, but pretty much squat for anyone farther west. at least it should keep temps in the upper-90s in CLL.

Looks like one or two tenths locally, rather disappointing. I do see towers going up well South of the Galleria, but the last few days, the sea breeze storms don't get past downtown before dying, and the dying has happened several hours earlier than significant loss in daytime heating. And we haven't had much heating inland to drive a seabreeze, for that matter.

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My Weather Today

My Weather Today

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Looks like one or two tenths locally, rather disappointing. I do see towers going up well South of the Galleria, but the last few days, the sea breeze storms don't get past downtown before dying, and the dying has happened several hours earlier than significant loss in daytime heating. And we haven't had much heating inland to drive a seabreeze, for that matter.

Yea a different scenario, same results...disappointing accumulation amounts. Saturday's outcome doesn't surprise me at all, so days like this don't bother me. Since April of 2008, for the most part, I've been in a 'I'll believe it when I see it' mode when it comes to forecasted precipitation events concerning Southeast Texas. The only thing that has me concerned is the possibilities of this remaining hurricane season. Despite the ongoing exceptional drought here, the Texas & southwestern Lousiana coasts need to remain vigilant and keep abreast upon the latest developments in the tropics. For the record I just want to make it clear I'm very concerned about a major hurricane making it's way into the Western / Northwestern Gulf of Mexico later on this season. We shall see.

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Srain

Srain

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Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Very active radar early this morning with numerous thunderstorms developing within a zone of surface moisture convergence from SE of Lake Charles to near Smith Point (Galveston Bay). Weak tropical wave noted south of Sabine Pass, TX moving westward and this is the feature responsible for all the ongoing activity early this morning.

Main question today is how far west and inland the storms penetrate. Another disappointing day yesterday rainfall wise as early morning showers put a lid on building afternoon instability keep activity fairly scattered. Moisture is deeper today with PWS of 2.2-2.4 inches across the region and the radar does look promising, but I have seen day after day over the past week of development in this same area spreading thick mid and high level cloud cover over the rest of SE TX and preventing more widespread rains. Difference today does appear to be a good deal of downstream development over Galveston Bay under the thickening cirrus shield, so maybe we will all get some decent rainfall today.

Saturated profile will support periods of very heavy rainfall under the stronger convective cells with hourly rates of 2-3 inches possible in this very tropical air mass.

Tropical wave/upper disturbance will weaken and move westward on Wednesday with less upper support and a slightly drier air mass spreading into the region from the NE. Will go back to our more typical daily afternoon seabreeze 20-30% coverage for Wed-Thurs. Large upper ridge over the central US expands back southward for the weekend while surface high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico builds westward and this should effectively shut off rain chances and force highs back into the 100’s for Fri-Sun. Ridge weakens again early next week and area comes under another period of easterly flow aloft allowing a return to more favorable rain chances.

Tropics:

After peaking late yesterday afternoon at 65mph, Bret has weakened overnight and is looking quite weak this morning with only modest amounts of weak convection near the center. A combination of dry air and increasing upper level wind shear have done their work on the small circulation center and Bret will continue a downward weakening trend until dissipation over the colder waters of the north Atlantic.

Note: Atlantic Sea Level Pressures have rapidly fallen to some of the lowest levels recorded in the past 50 years comparing closely to the same time in the 2005 hurricane season. The decline in SLP is concerning especially during the upcoming months of August and September and such low pressures help breed more frequent and more intense tropical cyclones. All parameters remain favorable for a significant increase in tropical cyclone activity basin wide starting in the next few weeks.

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